2018 Week 5

2018 Week 4

It's the biggest theme in the NFL and CKL this season: scoring and offense is up. In the CKL's case, it's WAY up. Let's look back at the scoring averages through the first four weeks of the modern CKL (2011+).

We've never see the kind of jump in scoring from one year to the next like we're seeing between 2017 and 2018. Granted, 2017 was a down year, the lowest average scoring season of the modern CKL era. But if you average all the seasons from 2011 to 2017, and then compare that to 2018's output, you still get an 8.45% increase. That's bigger than any season over season jump we've seen.

So what's the explanation? I think there are at least three concrete reasons scoring is up:

1. After a down offensive season in 2017, the NFL is seeing offensive output like never before. Specifially, there is a spike in passing offense, as there are more touchdown passes through Week 4 than of any other NFL season. Ever.
2. The NFL has never had a better group of QBs than right now. I realize that's a heavily subjective statement, but look back to '88, '98, and '08 and tell me any of those groups are better than the bevy of passer talents currently in the league. Was Bobby Hebert (the 11th rated QB in 1998) better than Cam Newton (11th in 2018)? Would you rather have Neil O'Donnell (6th/'98) or Philip Rivers (6th/'18)? Chad Pennington (2nd/'08) or Patrick Mahomes (2nd/'18)? Yes, I'm cherry picking a bit, but overall, the league's passers are better now than in previous eras. There are any number of reasons for that, from college preparation, the current passer-friendly NFL rulebook, heck, maybe even high school/Pee Wee development. The astounding part of 2018 passers isn't necessarily the top, either. It's the depth. Aaron Rodgers is currently the 13th rated QB. Matthew Stafford is 20th. There are legit, long-term starters 20+ deep. That isn't usually the case in the NFL.
3. CKL rule changes have allowed for more scoring. We juiced sacks and added a position at HC. When you add those factors to the NFL scoring bonanza currently ongoing, it makes sense that scoring is up in the CKL, bigly.

Is this the new normal? My guess is, yes. You need to be pushing 110+ if want a legit shot to win week to week. Already this season we've had losing scores of 119.0, 118.3, 115.9, 114.6 and 104.8. Those are almost surefire wins in previous iterations of the CKL.

Non-Core Scoring

Something I've wanted to look at since we added IDPs/DPs to the league was just how much an advantage they can prove to be for one coach over another. I never took the time to set up an easy, quick method to track this data. Until now. I'm not sure exactly how I want to present this information, so I'll start this week with a couple of tables. If you'd like other bits of information, let me know.

Non-Core Points/Rank

• This table shows each team's total amount of points scored by their DPs, Ks, and HCs through Week 4. It's sorted from highest to lowest total.
• Ryan is getting the most from his non QB/RB/WR/TE group, and that's one of the reasons his odds to repeat as CKL Champion is rising weekly.
• We all know Heath's struggles, particularly with submitting a full lineup. This table bears that out, as he is 24.7 points behind the next lowest team.
• On average, a CKL team is getting 32.3 points from their non-core group. Ryan is getting 39.1, while Heath is getting 21.4. So there are your targets and ranges, folks.

DP Points/Rank

• This table removes the Ks and HCs and shows only the DPs. I'm not saying there isn't a strategy to your weekly K and HC decision, but I think the DPs are, at least slightly, more interesting.
• Kirk, new owner of The Big Stack, is showing us all how it's done. Somewhat surprisingly, he's doing it on the back of mostly tackle compilers, not sack artists. Darius Leonard has been a revelation for him, although his doughnut in Week 5 hurts.
• Heath beats Yado here. Interesting. I guess.
• To give you a sense of the weekly averages/ranges, the league average is 20.3 points, with Kirk at 26.0 and Yado at 15.0. Some juice to squeeze there, but not much.

A couple of other quick hits without a chart:

• Joe is getting the most points from the kicker position; Heath the least (ouch).
• Norris is getting the most from the head coach (nice $5 on Andy Reid); Corey the least (Jets and Bills combo, barf).

The Week 4 Numbers

All Play Table

• He might only have one win but Kirk is the best team in the league. Kirk. KIRK!
• Sizable gap (five games) between the top five and bottom nine. Us shitkickers need to hope Kirk keeps winning so Jenna becomes available.
• Another big gap (six games) between Corey and Nathan. I think that makes sense: the top five are clear playoff teams, the next five are in the conversation, and the bottom four need a rapid, noticeable turnaround or else their eyes will quickly turn to 2019.
• Kirk takes The Big Stack in Week 4; Heath still holds Lame.
• Due to a few stat corrections back in Week 3, Yado joins Kendall as the only two teams not to score less than triple digits.
• There are four (FOUR!) teams averaging 114.4 points per week or better. Insanity.
• Russ is the most stable scoring team, but that doesn't say much when you're buried at 4-48 (a 7.7% winning percentage). Much like last week, only Corey's worse 4-48 start from last season is keeping Russ out of the record books. Most year's everyone has at least ten All-Play wins through four weeks. 
• Heath is conversely the most explosive, but that's only because he has such a strong Week 1 followed by three subpar efforts.

Hotness

• The first true heat check of the season, this is the first week the trending average is different than the overall league average.
• Paul is on fire, and as we've discussed previously, Heath is ice cold.
• Nine of the league's 14 teams are averaging triple digits since Week 2. New normal, indeed.

Luck

• Crazy that Kirk went out and scored The Big Stack, yet is still two games unlucky. Actually, that's precisely the point. When you outscore every team in the league in a week, you win every possible match up. So his luck hasn't changed. Truly one of the weirder starts to the season in recent memory.
• Joe, Paul, and Kendall are with Kirk in the group that is more than one game plus or minus in luck. These are quality teams, no doubt, but as I've said before and will say again, schedule matters.
• Heath, look at you---true blue. A one win team if we've ever seen one.
• And Russ. Poor Russ. So bad he's only "earned" a third of a win this season. Not even, really.

Jenna

• Kirk straight slaying.
• Surprising no one, Ben is looking to slide in if/when Kirk makes it to the top five.
• Everyone else is multiple weeks away from contending. It's Week 5 and it's already to the point where I have rooting interests in every single CKL game going forward. Personally, I think that makes things more interesting.

Seed Story

• Not a ton of movement this week. Ben slides out of the 'offs, Ryan in, and no other movement beyond a seed up or down.
• Kendall, Joe, and Yado continue their high class lifestyle. They haven't spent even a week this season down here with the plebs.
• Rookie, Nathan, Chad, and Russ still haven't tasted that sweet playoff feeling. Can you taste a feeling?
• Week 1 Heath, we barely knew ye.

Yep, this is what I did with my Sunday morning. You're welcome.

2018 Week 3

WE'RE BACK, JERKS!

After a horrific level of blog participation in 2017, it's time to get some nuggets off my chest, out of my spreadsheets, and in front of your eyeballs. Yes, the normal charts and whatnot will be here, but let's get started with a bit of a different take.

Tiers

If you had to "power rank" or make a poll for CKL teams three weeks in, what would it look like? Strike that, let's do tiers instead. Off the top of my head...

Heavy Whipping Cream

Paul - Three straight wins to open the season, current number one overall playoff seed, most points scored, and a layup on the schedule in Week 4.

Whipping Cream

Joe, Kendall, Ben, Yado - The rest of the current non-Jenna playoff field, the order of this bunch comes down to preference. Joe leads the All-Play table (spoiler alert), Kendall hasn't scored less than triple digits, Ben has the number one RB and number two QB to date, and Yado, well, I guess he's riding the high of new parenthood (and a star-less, solid core of contributors).

Half and Half

Kirk - Suffering from just godawful, brutal, Event Horizon type luck, Kirk is currently working up the nerve to slide his hand down from (willing, consenting) Jenna's brassier down to her nether regions. Has roughly the equivalent scoring total as the other playoff squads, but without a single double yoo to show for it. Keep scoring points, working that foreplay, and good things'll happen, Kirk. Bonus karma from yours truly thinking you stole a bunch of my draft picks last month.

Whole Milk

Corey, Norris - Both squads are above .500 in the All-Play table, suggesting they'll be a factor in the playoff discussion going forward. They have bad luck too, just not Kirk-level shit luck. They're both within 20 points (easily striking distance) of Jenna. If I had to paint a picture: they're both dong-handed outside the bedroom door, silently listening for any sounds of pleasure (or discontent) coming from inside. No pressure, Kirk.

2%

Rookie, Ryan - Rookie and Ryan are in similar situations, with Rook being a touch more consistent. Ryan has some ground to make up to defend his Cup. Good news is he already has two wins booked, more than anyone else here, below or in the level up. Maybe I have him in the wrong spot? Oh well, I'm pot-committed at this point.

1%

Nathan - Alright now I'm just ham-fistedly ensuring I get someone in each category. I'm not actually better than any of the teams below, I simply FEEL like I am. Ugh, feelings and fantasy football---not my preferred cocktail. I have a squad filled with WR2s and RB3s. Might need to change my name.

Skim

Heath, Chad, Russ - The damned of the CKL. Some had it done to them (Chad: injuries; Heath: Le'Veon), while others did it to themselves (Russ: three QBs, karmic-ally poor draft performance). Heath has shown he has the capacity for an explosion, Chad has crippling, probably insurmountable injury problems, and Russ is consistently below average, although without the lows Heath and Chad have uncovered. The order for these three will change, but it's hard to envision any of them escaping this low calorie, low flavor category.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WHY?

• is Kendall rostering Dante Pettis?
• does Kirk roll with an empty roster spot?
• is Jesse James still on Kirk's squad?
• is Alex Collins not getting goal line carries?
• is Yado failing to use his IR spot?
• is Hayden Hurst (0 catches, 0 yards, 0 fantasy points to date) on ANY team?
• is the TE position such a cluster this season?
• is Russ still holding three QBs? Anyone received an offer?
• is Kalen Ballage (theoretically a person) on Russ' team?
• is Corey starting the Bills HC at the Packers?
• did we, collectively, as a league, let Derrius Guice slide to Rookie once the redshirt round opened?
• is my team? WHY?
• can't I quit Josh Gordon?
• is Derrick Henry so bad?
• is Joe's team so good? RB6, WR3, WR8, TE7, RB17, DL1, LB5, K1 to date. RAGE.
• did Chad draft Courtland Sutton in the fifth? Is he gonna keep him?
• is Chad rostering three QBs?
• does Heath not have a HC?
• can't I find anything bad to say about Norris' team?

• 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

All-Play Table

• So maybe Paul isn't the only Heavy Whipping Cream? It's clear to me that the quartet of Joe, Kendall, Paul, and Yado are the class of the league through three weeks, with Kirk and Ben right behind.
• Paul set the scoring standard with 140.2 points in Week 2. He had six players in double figures, including two big bursts from Kirk Cousins (34.5) and Melvin Gordon (24.6).
• Heath is reeling, as he set the low bar two weeks in a row. He'll hope to stop the bleeding in Week 4. 12 points from K Dan Bailey on Thursday night is a good start.
• Kendall looking hard to kill early in the year, with his high total point output and low standard deviation. His minimum is triple digits. Thoughts and prayers, K opponents.
• I'm hesitant to pile on too much on Russ' historically awful start to the season, but damn if he didn't paint a target on himself with his draft mouth. Looking back, though, he can take solace that Corey had a worse start just last year. Both went 4-35 in the first three weeks of all play, but 2017 Corey scored fewer points and had both a lower high and a lower low. So, uh, enjoy that.

Hotness

• Only three weeks in, the order here is going to look a lot like the All-Play table. This chart will become more relevant as we move deeper into the season.
• Top six all the in the playoff field currently. As it should be.
• See? Maybe I am a bit better than Heath, Chad, and Russ.

Luck

• When you start the season undefeated, there is naturally going to be a bit of schedule luck involved. So you see all three unbeaten squads at the top of the table.
• Nathan, Heath and Yado are the most "themselves," if you will. Not much luck involved in their record.
• And then we have Kirk, who should be 2-1, sitting at 0-3. With a -2.00 luck score, Kirk is BY FAR the unluckiest three-week team in the modern history (2011-present) of the CKL. At least you have a consolation prize, Kirk.

Jenna

wuddup grrl

• You can't be feeling like the unluckiest guy ever when Jenna is wearing an undersized shirt.
• That said, Norris and Corey lurk. Leer. Whatever other creepy L words you can think of.
• The range between the highest and lowest score of the week is averaging 64.3 points. So Heath, Chad, and Russ are all at least two weeks away from even sniffing some fingers.

Seed Story

• Yeah, I should've hidden the empty columns, but I just wanna get this post finished and out. Suck it.
• Kendall, Joe, and Yado have found themselves in the playoff field all season.
• While Rookie, Nathan, Chad and Russ haven't been there yet.
• Kirk with the big move coming off 118.3 points in a loss to Joe. Moved him right into the Jenna slot.

COMING SOON

I've been tinkering with some additional numbers that I hope to add to this weekly column soon. I'm trying to get a grasp on who is doing the best job with the "non-core" positions on their lineups. You know, DPs, Ks, HCs, that sorta thing. Would it surprise you to know that Kirk is the DP master to date? That Yado is struggling in that category? That Norris gets the most out of his "non-core" positions? That Russ gets the least?

Alright my typing fingers hurt. I'm out.

2018 Pre-Season CKL Team Rankings

Nerding around the internet as I tend to do, I found a nifty little team/draft grader that provides some sort of generic ranking of the teams heading into the 2018 NFL season. This is not my opinon, but rather the opinion of some anonymous Reddit dweeb. Enjoy!

And let's take a look at the team's individually. I think this report ranks positions groups (including benches) and then adds up the rankings, such that the lower your total number the better. Hence, Ben at the top with 44.5 ranking points, and Heath at the bottom with 80.5

1. Ben - Gurley Men
   
2. Kendall - Pink Nightmare
   
3. Norris - Blackpool Pengiuns
   
4. Rookie - Nth Degree
   
5. Paul - Smack My Porsche
   
6. Ryan - D2F Ratio
   
7. Joe - Womp Wampas
   
8. Corey - L7 Half-Orc Sorcerers
   
9. Nathan - The Architect
   
10. Kirk - Sexy Badasses
    
11. Chad - OO Daddy
    
12. Russ - The Magic Stick
    
13. Yado - The Revolting Arabs
    
14. Heath - GleepGlop's Hypotenoids
    

Get Excited.......

CKL 2017 - The Numbers

It's been a less than stellar season for a couple of big reasons. First of all, the blog activity went completely silent. That's on me.  Not getting the numbers out in a weekly fashion is personally unacceptable. I'm not going to roll out some semi-sincere set of platitudes about how I'll "do better next year" or that I'm "recommitted." Just know I regret not doing my thang this season, and I hope to partially make up for it with an extended set of numbers and analysis.

The first thing I want to talk about is CKL History. Now that're we're nearing the end of our 16th season, I think it's useful to revisit some of the definable eras of the Cavalier Keeper League. I'd break the league's history down into roughly thirds.

First Third: 2002 - 2006 - Infancy

This five year period in the early/mid aughts was the birth of the CKL. For at least a couple of years there was a UTS (University Transit Service, pretty much the bastion of all things awesome at UVA (that's the University of Virginia, dotards)) redraft league that had Kendall, Paul, founding father Joe-Joe Stewart, some Parking and Transportation IT guys, maybe Joe (honestly don't remember) and me in it. After a couple of seasons, Kendall thought he'd like the juice (and continuity) of a keeper league. With a group at the P&T conference table and a speaker phone, a Yahoo! Fantasy Football draft in August/September of 2002 birthed the CKL.

The first five years of the league included some of the more important moments in CKL lore. The Wilbur brothers won the first two league titles. Russ and Rookie (begrudgingly) were invited in 2004 when the league expanded to 12 teams. Founding Father Brian Steele famously drafted Peerless Price number one overall. Paul traded for Michael Vick who then promptly (like, the same day) broke his leg and was out for the season. Kendall earned his first two cups back-to-back, still the only CKL coach to earn that honor. And Big Joe broke through for his only cup to date.

In terms of the makeup of the league, I'll refer you to Part IV of the CKL Charter - CKL Style and History. We lost Founding Father John Hall in 2004 due to unfortunate circumstances surrounding Ricky Williams' pot-related temporary retirement from the league. We gained Mark Fulton as his replacement. I already mentioned we added Russ and Rookie in expansion, but we also replaced Founding Father Ken Wilbur with Kirk Whitt. We also had a weird Brian Steele --> Tom Humphries --> Chad Proctor change from 2004 to 2006. The other move in this period was from Joe Joe Stewart to Ben Bledsoe. We also moved the league hosting site from Yahoo! to ESPN in 2005. The league was young and there were some growing pains, but we entered the second "third" of CKL history in a much better place than we started.

Second Third: 2007 - 2011 - Dynastic Tendencies

The next fives years were defined by the back and forth championships of Mark and Kendall. Kendall got up to four total (FOUR!) while Mark was the first non-Kendall owner to earn two CKL Cups. Rookie grabbed his only Cup back in season six, but after that it went Mark/Kendall/Mark/Kendall. It got old, fast. I personally was afraid we entered a dynastic period that would never end. Of course, that fear was quite short-sighted.

The other notable feature of this period of CKL history was it's stability. We expanded from 12 to 14 teams in 2011 (welcome Patrick Adair and Norris Bunn), but otherwise did not need to replace any coaches. It was a period of relative calm and predicable results that would be followed by what I consider to be the most interesting period yet of the league's history.

Third Third: 2012 - Present - The Age of Parity

While we've had several coaching changes and scoring tweaks during our current phase, the last six seasons have been defined by parity. Every cup winner during this period hoisted their first ever cup. No repeat winners. Ben --> Chad --> Paul --> Nathan --> Russ, and we're awaiting the winner of Ryan/Norris, which will make six straight first timers. It's an exceptionally exciting time to be a member of the CKL. Everyone legitimately has a shot to win every year.

As for the changes during this period, we lost Founding Father Alan, two-time champion Mark, Founding Father Derrick, and Patrick Adair, but gained Yado Yakub, Corey Marquardt, Ryan Waters, and Heath Oderman. We also made some scoring tweaks, moved to IDPs (and eventually to DP flex), and had some of the most fun draft weekends ever.

Now that we've seen where we've been, let's take a look at where we are.

2017 - CKL Season 16 - The Numbers

Final Regular Season All Play Table

• Ryan's team isn't the best CKL team ever. It isn't the highest scoring team of all time. But it is the most dominant team the league has ever seen. Congratulations, Ryan. More on this below.
• Eight of the league's 14 teams are below .500. That's top-heavy.
• Paul looks like a playoff team according to this table. But Jenna and luck had other plans. He is currently competing for the Conso Championship, so it's clear he had a good squad this season.
• Conversely, Yado seems like the one who snuck into the Championship Playoffs. We'll have to investigate this further below.
• High score of the season belong to Russ' Week 11 beat down of Ben. Russell Wilson, Keenan Allen, and LeSean McCoy all surpassed the 20 point threshold in the run away victory.
• "I Didn't Inhale," the CKL award for lowest high score of the season, goes to Corey. But only because he couldn't overcome my horrible high of 92.3. Corey and Nathan join the ignominious short list of teams to not break into triple digits in the modern era of the league. Other members of this shitlist include Norris 2011 and Nathan 2014. Hurray, the group is four deep and I own half of them.
• Our own "Hard to Kill" team with the highest low is, surprise surprise, Ryan with 79.6 in Week 12. Which he won. Impressive.
• And lowest low? Corey with an anemic 52.6 points in a Week 9 loss to the Wampas. Must be nice to win when you only score 62.6 points, eh, Joe?
• "Mr. Explosive" is Russ', as his 23.76 standard deviation indicates all kinds of outcomes are possible with his team.
• "Mr. Dependable" is Nathan's, in that his team was dependably shitty. When your season high and low are only 25.9 points apart, that means, uh, you're...uh...dependable? I got nothing.
• Corey didn't clear 1,000 points. That's usually not what one would consider a "good thing."

Final Regular Season Hotness Table

• Russ looked like he was primed to make a deep playoff run. Jenna's luck ran out, though. After two straight years, Russ might finally be running on fumes. The lady is incorrigible.
• Don't recollect if I've ever seen Kendall on the bottom of this table.
• Norris, Ben, and Ryan also are hot heading into the playoffs.
• Kirk, despite spending a good chunk of the season in the basement with Corey, Heath and me, really turned it on down the stretch.

Final Regular Season Luck Table

• Weird how I had a suspicion that Yado might have had some luck getting into the playoffs. You gotta ride that wave as long as you can, though. It's hard NOT to have some luck involved in a Cup run.
• And to totally contradict that point, both Cup finalists, Ryan and Norris, had negative luck this regular season. Which means they're both a little underrated overall. More on this later.
• Kirk. My man. Kirk. Geez. What weird voodoo have you been doing to earn a -3.00 score this season. You should've been 6-7. That's wild.
• It's been a while since Joe was complaining about his bad luck, right?

Final Regular Season Jenna Table

• Well that wasn't close.
• Jenna LOVES her some Russ.
• Really not much else to say. Good luck satisfying her in 2018, anyone else.

Weekly Playoff History

• This was a new addition last season. It shows the playoff seeding after each week of the regular season. Additional columns on the right show seed change from the previous week, the number of weeks of the regular season a team was "in", and the rank of that number.
• Ryan and Ben were the only teams to be "in" all season long. That's impressive.
• On the other hand, Joe and Corey were the only two to be "out" the entire year. Hard to do, especially for Joe, who earned the seven seed.
• There is cause for particular pain for Chad, and to a lesser degree, Paul, who were in the playoffs for nine and six weeks, respectively. Chad was in the playoffs for 69.2% of the season, only to enter the Conso as the eight seed. A six game winning streak followed by a six game losing streak will do that to you. One of the weirder seasons I can remember.

In Season Improvement

• I'm conflicted if I should even include this set of tables, as I haven't figured out a decent, readable way to present it yet. Basically, this shows team's average by "thirds" of the season. The first set is the first four weeks, the second set the second four weeks, and the rightmost set is the final five weeks of the regular season.
• The second two sections also include information on changes in average points and percentage improvement/decline compared to the previous "third." The idea here is to show how the various team's performance changes over the course of the season.
• Ryan had the best average in section one, Norris in section two, and Russ in section three. All three made the playoffs.
• Low averages by section went Corey, Kirk, then Corey again.
• Best percentage improvement was Corey from one to two, and Kirk from two to three.
• Teams that faded the worst were Kirk from one to two (which probably aided his improvement from two to three) and Kendall from two to three. Sometimes, 14 trades don't get you what you want. But damn did he try.
• If you have any ideas of how I could better present this, let me know.

Top Ten Current Era Seasonal All-Play Records

• Remember that note about Ryan having the most dominant team ever? Here it is. A full 12 games better All-Play than Kendall's 2011 Cup-winning squad.
• Norris with a low-key impressive as hell season. Coming in as fourth best since 2011. And he had to compete with an all-timer in Ryan, which makes it harder to get a bunch of All-Play wins. Although with me and Corey, there were a few cupcakes on the "schedule" as well.
• Kendall has three of the top 10 All-Play seasons since 2011, which is no surprise. But he's only "managed" one Cup in that range.
• Russ had two, and the other five with a season each, are Ryan, Norris, Nathan, Patrick, and Joe.
• Russ' 2014 looks exceptional from a total points perspective.

Current Era (2011-2017) Franchise All-Play Table

• This. This is my kinda table. Total All-Play records from 2011 to present. And zero surprise, Kendall dominates.
• Ben, after having a historically horrible team over the first half of his CKL tenure, is tied in second place with Joe and Paul. He's truly turned things around.
• Notable how the teams that have changed owners are all in the bottom half of the league.
• Founding Fathers (and there are only four of us left) are one, three, four, and, uh, 12 on this list. So, how did I win a Cup again?
• This table is a bit bottom heavy, with eight squads above .500 and six below it. In general the worst teams are worse than the best teams are best. Does that make sense?
• 8.8 points. That the difference between the top and the bottom of this list in average points over the last seven regular seasons. The margins in the CKL are hella tight.

2017 CKL Draft Preview: The Keepers

Keepers R Kool

Welcome back, foolios. Thought we'd get the 2017 CKL season started with a look at everyone's keepers heading into Saturday's 16th annual draft. Some of you are looking mighty, mighty strong. It will be your charge to not screw up what you've created. Others of us are drowning, and see Saturday's effort as a potential flotation device. The vagaries of fantasy football mean we all still technically have a chance to take the cup away from Russ (congrats, again), it's just that some of us are in much better position than others.

So let's make a list, starting with the worse set of keepers, and heading to the best.

14. Yado

• WR Davante Adams
• TE Jordan Reed
• RB Rob Kelley

Adams had a career year, with 12 receiving touchdowns, a number likely to diminish in 2017. Then again, he does have Aaron Rodgers tossing him the rock. Reed is better than everyone not named Gronk when he's actually on the field, but that's the rub. He is hurt. A lot. And now he has some sort of toe issue? Yoink. Rob Kelley is average, and lots of folks think he'll lose his job before the season even arrives. I get that Yado is a fan of the Potomac River Basin Indigenous Persons football team, but that can hurt you when you decide to keep Rob Kelley instead of a better option like Willie Snead.

13. Nathan

• WR Terrelle Pryor
• WR Jarvis Landry
• RB Derrick Henry
• WR Martavis Bryant

Pryor seems to have the elite athleticism required to make the damn impressive switch from QB to legit #1 WR. Then again, not many teams came a-calling in free agency. So maybe he's just not that good. He has a pretty wide range of outcomes this season. Landry is a great PPR receiver, but this isn't a PPR league. And having Cutler take over for Tannehill doesn't increase confidence in his potential usage. He'll underperform. Derrick Henry is talented, but has a better bank in DeMarco Murray in front of him. In general, it's a bad idea to keep a understudy player. I probably should've kept Brandon Marshall instead, but I didn't want to roll with four WRs heading into 2017. But my team was straight trash last year. One fresh-from-the-refrigerator glob of aloe for the sunburn that is my team is the 10th round price on Martavis Bryant. He's a risk, no doubt, but it sounds like he is on the straight and narrow to once again showcase his crazy skills as a receiver opposite Antonio Brown. I'm excited. 

12. Heath

• RB LeVeon Bell
• WR Doug Baldwin
• QB Ben Roethlisberger

I know this seems overly harsh considering that Bell is one of the best three commodities in fantasy football, and Baldwin has produced as a WR1 over the past two seasons. So, uh, yeah, this ranking is all about Ben Roethlisberger. Dude straight balls at home (QB1 in Pittsburgh) and is Sam Bradford on the road (QB23). Should be better with a full season of Bell and Bryant, but I'd rather have Mark Ingram on my squad.

11. Kirk

• QB Aaron Rodgers
• RB Mike Gillislee
• RB Eddie Lacy

Rodgers is a must-keep stud QB, no doubt. But the running backs have serious questions. Is Lacy good? Will he get the bulk of the carries in Seattle? Gillislee is uber-intriguing, but there are five legit RBs in New England, and history shows Belichick is horribly inconsistent in his RB use. Visions of the 18 rushing TDs Blount left in his wake should probably not be swimming in Kirk's head. Perhaps Keenan Allen would've been a better keeper selection than Lacy?

10. Chad

• RB Jay Ajayi
• QB Tom Brady
• WR Emmanuel Sanders
• QB Jared Goff

No complaints with Ajayi and Brady, they're both good starters. And Sanders isn't horrible, but is definitely limited by his QB (to be determined). Carlos Hyde would look pretty good pared with Ajayi, but I can't begrudge Chad too much for wanting to keep a pass catcher. Goff doesn't cost much, but isn't worth anything. He'll be dropped quickly, I'm sure. Knowing that Chad has the #1 overall pick and has basically already agreed to terms with Jacksonville's rookie RB Leonard Fournette gives the group a boost.

9. Rookie

• WR Mike Evans
• RB Lamar Miller
• QB Cam Newton
• WR Tyler Boyd

Evans is a solid WR1, and was positively drool-worthy on episode one of Hard Knocks (even though Doug Martin stole the show with his Apollo amateur night executioner tribute). Miller is an adequate RB. I guess the issue is QB. Why are so many QBs kept? I guess Cam could bounce back to the upper echelon, but I'd rather have, eh, maybe Michael Crabtree?

8. Corey

• RB David Johnson
• WR Allen Robinson
• QB Matt Ryan
• WR Leontee Carroo

I think Corey had the best set of keepers heading into last season, but he is more in the middle of the pack now. That's due to the shine coming off of Robinson (and Blake Bortles) while Ryan is likely to regress a bit from a historical offensive performance. Too bad about the ending of that Super Bowl, eh? That was tough to watch. But let's focus on the positive: David Johnson is giving me LaDainian Tomlinson/Marshall Faulk flashbacks. He's so good he's like having an extra starter every week. That means something. I probably would've kept Nuk Hopkins over Ryan, but everyone knows I hate QBs and I was the worst team in the league last year. So don't listen to me. In fact, stop reading. Just a guess but Carroo doesn't make the squad.

7. Joe

• WR A. J. Green
• RB Jordan Howard
• QB Andrew Luck
• RB Wendell Smallwood

Gotta remember to quit trading with Joe. Granted, shipping A.J. Green off to him two seasons ago helped me make my sole run to the Cup, but now Joe is sitting pretty with one of the best wideouts in the game. Howard was an exceptional midseason pickup turned keeper, and his ceiling seems relatively high considering how well he played on a poor Bears team. Seems like it won't matter that he'll be on another bad Bears team in 2017. And hey, auspicious start for Trubisky last night, right? Luck is, well, concerning. I imagine lots of tossing and turning in the Wompas bed while Heather grows increasingly concerned about hearing "Andrew Luck" escape Joe's sleeping lips. But hey, Luck is just a QB, and those things are always available. Once he has his Luck back (har), Joe will be in the playoff running, just like he always seems to be. Smallwood might be the only non-Martavis redshirt that sticks to his roster in the early going, too.

5. Norris (tie)

• WR Julio Jones
• WR Brandin Cooks
• TE Travis Kelce

Norris has the squad to make his second ever postseason appearance. Top 3 WR? Check. Explosive WR moving from one of the best offenses in the league to one of the best offenses in the league? Check. Premier TE? Check. High draft spot with which to secure a top RB? Check. Four checks, Norris. Don't screw it up.

5. Paul (tie)

• RB Melvin Gordon
• WR T.Y. Hilton
• WR Alshon Jeffrey

Another team with an excellent core. Gordon proves that subpar rookie seasons don't always indicate future performance. Hilton and Jeffrey are a solid WR duo, provided that Jeffrey's hamstrings don't get tweaked by the harsh Philadelphia atmosphere. Plus, he has lots of options at the third pick, after Chad and Norris are finished scooping up high end RB talent. Lots of reason to expect Paul to make a run as his second cup.

4. Ryan

• WR Odell Beckham Jr.
• TE Rob Gronkowski
• QB Drew Brees

So, uh, Ryan might be good at this whole fantasy football thing, eh? He made the playoffs in his first season, and has a set of keepers that could all realistically finish at number one at their position. The only thing missing is a running back. It's kinda scary to think there are three teams with better keepers. Maybe my list is wrong.

3. Kendall

• RB Ezekial Elliott
• WR Michael Thomas
• WR Amari Cooper

Oh joy we get to watch Kendall slide back into the playoffs and make another serious run at his own personal "one for the thumb," a phrase I'm sure he just loves. Zeke fell in his lap last year with the first overall pick, Michael Thomas was freed from the target bondage of Brandin Cooks, and Amari Cooper is straight up good. I guess the potential silver lining for the rest of us is that Michael Crabtree has outproduced Cooper the last two seasons. Nah, that probably won't happen again. We're screwed.

2. Russ

• RB LeSean McCoy
• WR Jordy Nelson
• WR Dez Bryant

Gulp. Like having three top  20 selections in a redraft league, Russ has curated quite a collection of talent. Shady is way good, even at 29 years of age. Nelson has two Top 2 WR seasons the last two complete seasons both he and Rodgers have been healthy--scary. And Dez is a touchdown hog. Coming off his first cup, can Russ pull off the back-to-back championships, something not achieved since Kendall did it in '03 and '04? Yes. Yes he can.

1. Ben

• WR Antonio Brown
• RB Devonta Freeman
• RB Todd Gurley

Ah but Ben stands in his way. His worst keeper is the guy he named his team after. Brown and Freeman are both first round redraft selections. HOO GAVE BEEN TWO FIRST ROUNDERS!? If Gurley rebounds, Ben is a shoe-in for the playoffs. Oh the dreaded Calcutron kiss of death. Seriously, though, nice keepers.