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CKL Season 12, in the books

Season 12 (2013) Final Standings (and 2014 CKL Draft Slot):

#1 Chad (13th pick) 

#2 Kendall (14th) 

#3 Russ (11th) 

#4 Ben (12th) 

#5 Joe (9th) 

#6 Nathan (10th) 

#7 Rookie (2nd) 

#8 Norris (5th) 

#9 Alan (4th) 

#10 Kirk (7th) 

#11 Derrick (3rd) 

#12 Mark (6th) 

#13 Paul (1st) 

#14 Patrick (8th)

Great season, everyone!  I'm already looking forward to next season!

Nathan's Nits - Week 13

Week 13 was the most determinant week of fantasy football I can ever remember. So much was still to be decided. The top three seeds had to be sorted, while the final three had to be resolved. Jenna was to be finally whisked away to the honeymoon suite. Considering the importance of the final week of the regular season, I went over the start/sit decision with a finer tooth comb than usual to attempt to dig out all those deeply embedded nits. What I found was that there were less critical decisions to make than ever. Most everyone knew who to start and who to not. Nevertheless, I scraped a few thoughts together.

Week 13 Start/Sit Thoughts

Paul: I can see not playing Woodhead, but I might run him out there over fumbles-and-he's-benched Vereen or disappointing Spiller. You need upside so Goodwin might be a better play than Wright.

This is called getting it completely wrong. Spiller might be disappointing in general this season, but he still is full of upside every time you roll him out there. I thought Goodwin might be able to use his elite speed to get behind the defense and grab a long score or two, providing more explosiveness than possession receiver Wright.

Performance: Spiller only had his season best performance with 21.7 points, while Woodhead scored 3.5, his lowest output since Week 1. Goodwin put up a goose egg while Wright was his ever solid self with 8.5.

Patrick: Is Palmer over Wilson a match up play? Head scratcher a bit. Ben Tate or Jonathan Stewart (with D-Will inactive) might make a better flex play than running two tight ends out there. Then again, Olsen has had a pretty good year.

This feels quite a bit like Patrick simply didn't check his team on Sunday morning. As for my thought process: Wilson is better than Palmer. Tate or Stewart over Olsen is a harder call. Patrick does have two of the top six tight ends, especially with Orange Julius and Jordan Reed ailing of late. But there is more upside with Tate. Although he had just experienced a seven carries for one yard line against the (maybe no so) hapless Jags.

Performance: Wilson outscored Palmer 29.1 to 20.9. Good game from Palmer, but why go good when you could get great? Tate went for 28.2, Olsen 8.5, and Stewart 4.2. That is how you leave a win on the bench.

Norris: not gonna reward Mendenhall for his touchdown last week? Yeah, I'd bench him for Gio vs. that ridiculously bad San Diego defense, too.

Mendy has been kind of startable the last three weeks. Weird, right? Not sure why I'm focusing on the non-playoff teams so much. Perhaps their decisions are more compelling, since the good teams have relatively easy start/sit decisions, since they're good and all?

Performance: Coin flip. Mendenall had 7.6 on the bench while Gio had 7.4 in the FLEX spot. Doesn't matter when you're dropping triple digits on a playoff team. C'mon, that's kinda satisfying.

Derrick: Randle over Cooper is interesting, but I agree that it's the correct call.

Why did I agree it was the correct call? Oh yeah, because Arizona's defense is good. But Philadelphia's offense is better. In fact, it's the best in the league since Foles took over.

Performance: Randle underacheived (as he does) with 2.0 points, while Cooper wasn't a much better 4.8 on the bench.

Joe: Michael Floyd in the FLEX. STRONG.

I see that you actually make a last minute adjustment to your lineup, Joe. Not sure what you did or what the impact was, but playing Floyd has become a no brainer. Dude is a WR1! You have three of those guys! Could Voodoo be the Cup favorite right this moment? Eh, get through those tough Week 14 match ups and then we'll talk.

Final Regular Season Numbers

All Play Table

• Congratulations to Kendall on completing a season with the best all-play record in the league. He outscored both Russ and Ben in Week 13, while Ben scored the least points of anyone in the league. That's how he slipped to third. It was his worst all-play performance of the season by far. This is the fourth time Kendall has taken home this award, and we've only been tracking it for six. And last year, he was in second by one flipping game. Geez Louise.
• Ben, despite the slip, still takes home the total points/highest average award.
• Kendall's Week 1 explosion of 152.9 points rode the entire season as the highest score of the year.
• Rookie's wins the "I Didn't Inhale" award for lowest high, with a measly 108.9. How appropriate.
• Kendall also wins the "Hard to Kill" award with the highest low score of the season with 74.9. Is "Hard to Kill" a better name for this than "I Only Sleep with 7s or Better"?
• Lowest low? Does this one have a name? That belong to Norris, with a paltry 45.9.
• Mr. Explosion, or perhaps it should be called Mr. Variability, goes to Norris with his 23.26 standard deviation.
• On the flip side, Mr. Reliable is Nathan's. A 14.05 standard deviation means I had the narrowest of possible outcomes week to week, with 10 of my 13 scores falling in the 87.95 to 116.15 point range. I think I actually won a Mr. Reliable award in eighth grade. DON'T TELL MY WIFE HAR HAR.
• While I stole Jenna from Mark, Joe is the one who took his playoff spot, according to the all-play metric.
• Derrick, twelve games clear in the basement.
• The difference between the highest and lowest scoring teams was only 23.4 points per game. Yeah, that sounds like a lot. But there are 14 teams in this league. You're never as good or as bad as you might think you are.

Luck Table

• How is the Blue division so much luckier?
• Kirk, a full two and a half games better than he should be. That's why he's in the conso despite an 8-5 record.
• Kendall, Mr. True Blue (er, Orange).
• Derrick, not only the worst team by all-play, but also the unluckiest. This is your bottom, coming up to meet you. Better days ahead.

Hotness

• Joe blowing up. And Russ in third called him out. 
• The wild card round of the playoffs features the four hottest teams in the league. I like that.
• The bye-earners, though, coasted in. Ben is 11th and Kendall 12th. You can trust they're looking for turnarounds on their squads this week, despite not having a contest.
• Derrick. Damn. Sorry man.
• Paul, so close. You did what you could down the stretch.

Jenna

• Tough to have her all year and yet not get her. Sorry Mark. Not really.
• Take me out of the equation. Assume I pooped my pants in Week 13. Mark would've won this thing over Paul by one tenth of a point. INSANE.

2013 CKL Playoff Notes

#1 Seed Jesus the Moose

Ben makes his second overall (and second straight playoff appearance). A member of the league since 2006, Ben rode Jenna to his first cup last year and grabs the pole position this year. Can he become the second team to post back-to-back cup wins (Kendall did it first in CKLs three and four in 2004 and 2005.

#2 Seed Pink Nightmare

Kendall extends his CKL record with his fifth straight postseason appearance. Unsurprisingly, he also leads the league in total postseason appearances with eight. Kendall leads the league with four cups to his name.

#3 Seed The Magic Stick

Russ earns his first ever trip to the Cup playoffs after missing out his first nine years in the league.

#4 Seed Double-O Daddy

Similar to Ben, Chad is making his second straight, second overall appearance.

#5 Seed Voodoo Brown

Joe’s ends his five year playoff drought, earning his third trip overall. He was the winner back in 2006, and was defeated by Rookie in the 2007 Cup Championship in a bid to go back-to-back.

#6 Seed THUNDER BEAR

It’s Nathan’s fourth trip to the Cup playoffs, but his first as anything but the #1 seed. That seed has not been kind to him, though, as he lost in the cup finals to Joe (‘06) and Mark (‘08) before losing to Norris in the divisional round last year.

Overall Playoff Appearances by Owner

(8) Kendall: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

(7) Derrick: 2002, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011

(5) Alan: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2011

(5) Mark: 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
(4) Big Joe: 2004, 2006, 2007, 2013

(4) Nathan: 2006, 2008, 2012, 2013

(4) Rookie: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011

(4) Kirk: 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011

(3) Paul: 2002, 2007, 2012

(2) Ken: 2002, 2003

(2) Ben: 2012, 2013

(2) Chad: 2012, 2013

(1) Russ: 2013

(1) Norris: 2012
(1) Joe Joe: 2003

(1) Tom: 2005

Patrick is the only current owner to not yet make a trip. He joins previous owners John Hall and Brian Steele with that distinction.

Thanksgiving FAABnalysis -- 11/28/13

What you don't want to have the Tuesday before Thanksgiving: A nasty stomach bug screaming through your house and home, reducing you and your family to a wheezing, retching wreck.  I AM THANKFUL FOR NAUSEA AND VOMITING, FOR FOAMY DIARRHEA, FOR HAVING THE OPPORTUNITY TO CLEAN MY KIDS' PUKE OUT OF THE CARPET WHILE I MYSELF AM HOLDING BACK BARF, AND FOR A WEIRD / INTENSE FEVER ONCE MY STOMACH FINALLY STARTS TO STABILIZE.

Fuck you, Pilgrims.  Fuck you, Indians.  Hell with it, fuck you, too, India.  And Indiana.

Fuck you, cornucopia.  I never fucking understood you, anyway.  What are you, like a giant fucking bugle, filled with raw corn and shit?  It's fucking strange.

Okay, so I guess it's like a weird basket without a flat bottom.  Kinda renders it useless if you ask me.  Like when you lay it down, it just lets the pumpkin and apple and tomatoes and onions and corn roll out.  Retarded.

Throwing out a vine to the online dictionary.

cor·nu·co·pi·a  (kôrn-kp-, -ny-)

n.

1. A goat's horn overflowing with fruit, flowers, and grain, signifying prosperity. Also called horn of plenty.

2. Greek Mythology The horn of the goat that suckled Zeus, which broke off and became filled with fruit. In folklore, it became full of whatever its owner desired.

3. A cone-shaped ornament or receptacle.

4. An overflowing store; an abundance: a cornucopia of employment opportunities.

Wait, what?  A fucking goat's horn?  Okay, that's pretty rad.  And I dig the Greek Mythology angle.

Wow.  Now I feel like an ass.

But fuck the Pilgrims.  And fuck Indiana.

I'd be a huge Jews fan, I think.

But all joking aside -- HAPPY THANKSGIVING.

I truly am thankful for this league, and for each of the 13 of you guys.  Hell, I'm even thankful for Ken, Joe-Joe, Brian Steele, that guy Tom, and even John Hall.  Turkey it up today, you guys.  And when push comes to shove, do yourself a favor and opt for the cranberry sauce instead of the gravy.

Okay, here's your soundtrack for this week, just because I really enjoyed the overlay during the intro to the first Governor-only episode two weeks ago, and the song has been stuck in my head:

It's the nature of the beast.  FAABnalysis kind of peters out at the end of the season, because we're mostly out of money and the talent pool is dryer than my balls after blasting off while watching The Good Morning Show on Sprout.

But yet we go through the motions.  And who knows?  Maybe one of these claims will help power one of us on a Cup run?

I'm skipping the stats, though.  They've always been lame, and I don't give enough of a shit to add numbers in (and on my fingers) my head right now.

Claims!

Ladarius Green -- $9 to Kendall

Dropped: Mychal Rivera
Other Bids: $4 to Chad
He's a big, young, talented tight end who currently seems to be eating Antonio Gates' lunch.  I bid $9 so I could safely outbid everyone but Chad, Russ, and Doc.  Because if Jordan Reed is going to be a pussy about this concussion, I'm going to need a tight end, and Green looked like the best shot in the dark at a late-season explosion.
Grade: Pumpkin Pie (nobody's favorite - let's be honest - but sometimes it just tastes SO GOOD.)

Tryptophan*

Andy Dalton -- $8 to Nathan

Dropped: Case Keenum
Other Bids: none
Nathan is facing what could be a must-win game against Chad, RG3 has been playing like white dogshit, and the Red Rifle is taking aim at the Chargers and their 29th-ranked defense against opposing QBs.  It all makes sense, and I personally guarantee that Dalton will deliver the goods for Nate on Sunday.  300 yards, 2 touchdowns, book it.  If he does come through and makes Nathan look smart for making this claim and benching Bob, it's a COTY feather in the cap.  But let's not get ahead of ourselves yet.
Grade: Honey-Glazed Ham (the surprisingly awesome alternative to turkey!)

Suck my dick.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- $5 to Chad

Dropped: Mike Glennon
Other Bids: none
Last season, the Bengals found a way to make a late 7-1 rally by nutting up and going with the power run fueled by the Law Firm.  I'm predicting a similar path this season, which means Green-Ellis could emerge as a decent RB2/RB3 for a CKL playoff run.  We'll see.  Gio Bernard will continue to cut deep into his carries, and the passing game (despite Dalton's struggles) is much improved due to the emergence of other weapons.  I think Law Firm is a fine bench add for this point in the season.
Grade: Stuffing (as in, you are stuffing your bench.)

Dumpster Diving...

Justin Hunter, $1 to Mark -- He's flashing, and this was a smart grab.

Seyi Ajirotutu, $0 to Alan -- I love this guy, but I doubt his role is going to be anywhere close to fantasy-worthy.

Jermaine Gresham, $0 to Alan -- Could be good, but I hate how he and Eifert cannibalize each others' production.

Jacob Tamme, $0 to Paul -- THE JULIUS THOMAS HANDCUFF.

Benny Cunningham, $0 to Joe -- THE ZAC STACY HANDCUFF.

C.J. Anderson, $0 to Nathan -- THE KNOWSHON MORENO HANDCUFF?

(The previous three claims is what makes fantasy football, and the CKL in particular, so magical.)

Brandon Bolden, $0 to Nathan -- One of these days, Ridley is going to fumble, get benched, and never be heard from again.

Lance Briggs, $0 to Russ -- Well played, Mister Hudgins.

Remaining Budgets

Kick Azz Giants -- $45
The Magic Stick -- $18
Double-O Daddy -- $13

Pink Nightmare -- $9

The Champeens -- $4
Sic Semper Tyrannis Rex -- $4
Jesus the Moose -- $3
The Sexy Badasses -- $3
Glitterfist Lasersnakes -- $1

Everyone else is straight TAPPED.

Top-10 Biggest Claims of the Season
1) Nick Foles -- $58 to Ben on 10/16/13
2) Willis McGahee -- $55 to Paul on 9/20/13
3) Joseph Randle -- $51 to Norris on 10/16/13
4) Harry Douglas -- $40 to Kendall on 10/9/13
5) Marvin Jones -- $39 to Kirk on 10/30/13
6) Mike James -- $31 to Norris on 10/23/13
7) Brandon Jacobs -- $27 to Patrick on 10/16/13
8) Jason Campbell -- $25 to Mark on 10/30/13
9) Jake Locker -- $22 to Paul on 10/2/13
10) Chris Ogbonnaya -- $21 to Patrick on 10/16/13
10) Felix Jones -- $21 to Rookie on 9/18/13



That's it for this week's edition, but as always, remember...

GOTTA SPEND TO WIN!

* Yeah, I know this picture is of Von Miller, but it was too funny to resist.

Week 12 Numbers

Not gonna do a full blown Nits with the holiday, so here are the penultimate tables for your review during Turkey Day football game commercials.

Thankful for this league and you guys, you guys.

All Play Table

• And down the stretch they come! After hanging back a bit Russ has made a big move and is definitely in play. Ben shit the bed last week, allowing for a true three way race in Week 13. Exciting! First seed on the line and the All Play title.
• Mark, Nathan, and Chad aren't unrealistic as the final three playoff seeds, and this table supports that.
• Paul, Joe, and Kirk have shots too, especially Joe and Kirk. Kirk only has a better record than four teams, and he might be the fifth seed. See the next table for an explanation.
• Doesn't look like Derrick is going to be able to avoid the basement.

Luck Table

• Sexy, a Badass, AND lucky!? Unfair. Over two games above expectation, can Kirk package his good fortune into a playoff spot?
• Rookie, ouch.

Hotness Table

• Ben certainly looks like the number one seed, but he'll need to overcome a down week and probably a win to seal the deal.
• Told you Juris was on fire.
• Kirk: lucky as hell and cold as ice. What a weird profile.

Jenna Table

• Looks like a slam dunk for Mark, but keep in mind that THUNDER BEAR and Double-O Daddy could get involved, both of who are closer to Mark than anyone else.
• It would take a miracle for Paul to steal Jenna.
• Mark has danced with her most of the year, time to unwrap the condom.

Week 13: Playoff Scenarios

Perhaps its recency bias or selective memory, but I can't recall an end of the season playoff picture quite like the one we have heading into the final week of the regular season. Its true that Ben's Jesus the Moose, Kendall's Pink Nightmare, and Russ' The Magic Stick have all punched their tickets to the CKL Championship postseason, but beyond that fact there lies nothing but uncertainty. NOT A SINGLE ONE OF THE PLAYOFF SEEDS HAS BEEN DETERMINED. That's insane. Everything comes down to Week 13. FIVE OUT OF THE SIX GAMES HAVE PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS (sorry Norris/Alan). The possibilities are....mind boggling. I've been sifting through them all morning, and hope to present them to you in a somewhat easy to read/understand format.

Let's start at the top.

#1 Seed

Ben, Kendall and Russ all sit at 9-3. Ben leads Kendall by 35.8 total points and Russ by 74.4. Ben currently has the best shot at the #1 seed due to this lead in points scored. If all three win or all three lose, Ben most likely earns it.

Kendall gets to pick the second round match ups if he wins AND Ben loses AND Russ either loses or wins and fails to make up Kendall's 38.8 point advantage.

Russ' only realistic chance at the top spot is if he wins while Ben and Kendall lose. He could make up those points on Kendall, but it doesn't seem very probable.

#2 Seed

The number one seed scenarios also decide number two. The easiest way to put it is that Kendall gets it IF AND ONLY IF he doesn't get the first seed. This is based on the CKL rule that the top two seeds go to winners of the Orange and Blue divisions. Kendall has already wrapped up the Orange, so he can do no worse than the two seed. 

If Kendall and Russ win while Ben loses, Russ gets the two seed.

If Kendall wins while Russ and Ben lose, Ben gets the two seed.

#3 Seed

The final domino in the top three scenario jumble, whoever hasn't claimed one of the top two spots will get this one. It can only be Ben or Russ. Ben wins, it'll be Russ. Russ wins while Ben loses, it'll be Ben.

#4 Seed

There are some wacky, way out there scenarios for this playoff placement, but the overwhelming likelihood is that the winner of the Nathan/Chad Week 13 game gets number four. Those wacky, way out there scenarios:

• Joe wins and outscores the Nathan/Chad winner by 62.6 (if it's Nathan) or 55.7 (Chad). That kind of scenario would require both Nathan and Chad to post two of their lower scores of the year, while Joe explodes (totally possible, see last week).
• Kirk could also technically get there, but he has an even crazier path. A path so crazy it truly is impossible. He'd have to outscore a Nathan win by 111.4, a Chad win by 104.5, and Joe (if he wins) by 48.8. That ain't happening. But if it does, I'll eat my pants. The old Dickie's with grease stains.

#5 Seed

The fifth seed is truly the shit show of the Week 13 scenarios. Any of SIX TEAMS have a chance to get the fifth seed. A quick breakdown of those teams:

Team	Win-Loss Record	Total Points
THUNDER BEAR	7-5	1215.2
Double-O Daddy	7-5	1208.3
Voodoo Brown	7-5	1152.6
The Sexy Badasses	7-5	1103.8
The Champeens	6-6	1236.5
Barclay Street Bruisers	6-6	1169.7

There are so many permutations that I'm going to attempt to list them by what I consider to be the most to least possible. The assumption for all of these scenarios is that the winner of Nathan/Chad is the four seed.

• If either of Joe/Kirk wins while the other loses, the winner gets the fifth seed. Hey, that's pretty simple.
• If BOTH Joe/Kirk win, Joe gets it so long as Kirk doesn't outscore him by more than 48.8 points.
• If both lose, it gets nutty:
• Mark gets it with a win and not being outscored by the Nathan/Chad loser by 21.3 (Nathan) or 28.2 (Chad). The implications for Jenna get cray cray under this particular scenario too.
• The Nathan/Chad loser gets it if Mark loses OR wins and is outscored by the Nathan/Chad loser by 21.3 (Nathan) or Chad (28.2) AND Paul either loses or wins and fails to outscore them by 45.8 (Nathan) or 38.6 (Chad).
• Paul gets the fifth seed if he wins, and all three of Joe, Kirk, and Mark loses AND he outscores the Nathan/Chad loser by 45.8 (Nathan) or 38.6 (Chad).

I realize this is mostly mental masturbation, but the most likely scenario is that Joe or Kirk get the fifth seed. But one or both of them will have to win to make that possible.

#6 Seed - Jenna!

Ah Jenna, the sexiest of rule changes. Good thing for her rule changes aren't generally considered sexy. Mark has owned her for a majority of the season, and that hasn't changed heading in the ultimate week of the season. 

Based on total points, there are only three reasonable guesses for the Jenna: Mark, Nathan, and Chad. The winner of Nathan/Chad will get in. So its down to Mark and the loser. If Mark somehow earns the fifth seed, the Jenna will go to the loser of the Nathan/Chad contest, unless Paul can overcome his deficits to Nathan and Chad.

More than likely, Mark gets Jenna.

Summary

Ben has the edge for the #1 seed. Kendall and Russ still have a shot at it though. Kendall already has a bye locked up. Ben and Russ are fighting for the other one.

The winner of the Nathan/Chad contest will more than likely be the four seed. Joe and Kirk are in good shape to make a play at the fifth seed, although it'll get bonkers if they both lose. Mark is favored with Jenna, but Nathan and/or Chad could make a last minute play.

Imagine being Mark, wooing Jenna for hours at the bar while she's getting tipsy, even maybe get his hand down her pants, only to see some dweeb like me or Chad roll in and pull the ultimate cock block. He might have to change his team name to Blue Balls.