Bungles

There are lots of bad times to be a Bengals fan.  During the playoffs.  Whenever franchise rankings are unveiled.  Whenever the Steelers win.  But the worst time, the absolute worst time, is during the first few days of free agency.

The Enquirer's Paul Daugherty had a depressing take on the Bengals [lack of] activity so far this free agency season.


The Broncos signed Wes Welker. The 49ers traded for A. Boldin, The Men are OK w/M. Sanu. This is the difference between teams that go for it, and teams that talk about it.

Maybe M. Sanu is the next J. Rice. Maybe not. Welker and Boldin are known commodities. You can say the Stillers and Ravens have taken major hits in the last week; you’re right. They have playoff wins. They have Bowl rings. They have GMs. Their GMs are very smart. They get some rope. To the Bengals credit, it used to be that solid FAs didnt want to come here. Now, Detroit signs R. Bush.

It’s as if the Bengals have a restrictor plate on their ambitions. That is very frustrating.

Welker to Broncos

Wow

As a Broncos fan, I'm stunned. Wes Welker agreed to a two-year, $12 million dollar deal with the Denver Broncos yesterday, in a move that directly takes a weapon from AFC rivals New England. Despite leading the NFL in receiving during his years as a Patriot, something about Welker's personality always seemed like a poor fit for the "New England Way". Case in point: getting benched for his hilarious press conference after it came out that Rex Ryan is a foot fetishist.

I love the move. Denver is clearly going balls out to get a Lombardi or two during Peyton Manning's sunset years. So pumped right now, you guys.

On the flip side, Brady is pissed. But the Patriots acted quickly to ink free agent wide receiver Danny Amendola to a five-year deal. In many ways, Amendola is Welker lite. Its hard to imagine Danny fully filling Welker's role in the offense, but there isn't really any reason to expect New England's offense to slow down since Brady is still behind center.

Fantasy Impact

For the Broncos, Manning is up, while everyone else is down a bit. Especially Stokely, who might not be re-signed. Welker won't get the looks or the production he did in New England, while Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker should expect to see at least a small slice of their numbers shed to Wes. The tight ends, Tamme and Dressen, could see significant reductions. Denver running backs (Steven Jackson, anyone?) should find it easier to run, especially with guard Louis Vasquez signed from San Diego, although the team might get even more pass-centric with all these weapons. I see it as a bit of a wash for the rushing attack.

This has to be seen as a loss for Brady, but probably not a huge one. Welker's production will get split over the tight ends and Amendola. Vereen and Ridley should see more touches, as well.

That's John! He's our President...

Ok, so most of you are probably wondering “WTF is going on in Baltimore?” Win the SuperBowls and then commence fire sale? Doesn’t make sense, huh? Well to understand, you first need to read this piece by Mike Silver on a near mutiny after the Ravens got crushed by the Texans back in October.

For those of you that don’t like to read, here’s a brief recap: Coach Harbaugh wanted to practice in full-pads after the Houston game, but the team balked. Things got a bit ugly, but the coach handled it well and didn’t let his ego get in the way. He let the team practice without pads. Then when the team came out flat in the next practice, Ed Reed steps up and gets coach’s back.

Yada yada yada...Ray Lewis announces his retirement and the Ravens win the fucking Super Bowl!!!

Here in Baltimore, our hangovers were barely wearing off as free agency approached. Now I’ve been banging the “IN OZ WE TRUST” drum for as long as I’ve been a fan, but things got weird, and fast (in vivo reactions in italics):

Anquan Boldin traded to the 49ers for a 6th round pick:
Alright I get it, we were going to cut him for cap space, so at least we got something in return. Q was a playoff MVP, but one of the reasons he made all those clutch catches in traffic is the fact that he can’t get open anymore. Dude is Matt Weiters slow. The coaching staff loves Tandon Doss. I love Deonte Thompson on the practice squad. Maybe local-kid-done-good Tavon Austin drops to us in the 1st. We’ll be okay.

Then the hits kept coming:

Kruger to the Browns for $41mil: 
No problem. We all knew somebody was gonna overpay for this guy. The Browns are a bad team with tons of cap space and that’s what bad teams with cap space do - they over pay for free agent winners like Kruger. Plus, we’ve got Courtney Upshaw in the wings. Kruger’s a 2 down player that is weak against the run. We’ll be fine, and Ray Rice will enjoy running to the right against the Browns next year.

Dannellerbe to the Dolphins for a bunch of coin: 
Wait what? I thought we cut Boldin so we could sign him? Fuck, well the fins totally overpaid for him, so what can you do? Ozzie has a plan and he sticks to it - you gotta respect that. He doesn’t overpay for players, especially ones who play marginal positions like ILB.

Chris Canty signs with Ravens: 
Alright, cool. Nice, smart, savvy signing by the best front office in the business. Nice to have a Hoo in the house.

Ravens tender offers to Art Jones, Dennis Pitta, and Ed Dickson. 
Cool.

Bernard Pollard cut: WHAT THE POPE-LOVING FUCK?!?!?!?

At this point, I think back to the Mike Silver article, and it all begins to make sense. John Harbaugh has serious capital, and he’s not wasting any time to cash it in. There will never be a mutiny in his Baltimore again. Bernard Pollard is a good player that “Plays Like A Raven” but he’s a bit of a hothead and a loudmouth that annoyed the shit out of Harbaugh. Boldin was never afraid of speaking his mind either. We all know what kind of presence Ray Lewis was. And Ed Reed? The guy who stood up for the coach after the near-mutiny? Well I assume he’s gone, too. Bernard Pollard was his perfect compliment, and if they cut Bone Crusher for a mere million bucks in cap space, I can’t see them bringing the ball hawk back for much more than that. The Ravens are going young on defense, and leaning heavy on their newly-rich franchise QB, Air Flacco. They’re trying to get with this New NFL that is all about the O-Face and not so much the D-Fence.

Of all the losses, Ed Reed will be the toughest. He was the heart and soul of these team, and I daresay this town. Here is a great piece on how he was the true leader of that locker room, a larger presence than even #52 [WARNING: Longread, you illiterate jerks].

So what does this all mean for fantasy football? Well, the Ravens are retooling on defense. They’re going younger, faster, and inevitably, dumber. Next season, I’m starting anybody that’s playing the Ravens D until they prove that they won’t be giving up 25+ points every week. Remember, we weren't that great on defense BEFORE we lost all these guys. As for the offense, well the pressure’s on, and I think that guys like Rice, Pitta, Torrey Smith, and even Flacco should be great weekly options.

IN OZ WE TRUST? It’s still early. We’re only 2 days into the off-season theatrics. As I've been saying on Twitter, Championship teams aren't born in March; Dan Snyder teams are. We still have to see who we sign between now and August, and obviously the NFL Draft looms large. The Ravens have something like 12 picks, and they’re clearly looking for that cheap labor force. This really smarts of an ego-trip by Coach Harbaugh, making these Ravens something like the Patriots of Belichick, eliminating the strong locker room voices in favor of a group of subservient peons who don’t question his author-it-ay. Only time will tell if it’s the right call. What is certain is that Baltimore will never give up on this team.

See you guys in August, when the O's are in first place, and the Ravens are preparing for a repeat!

Jared Cook to Rams: Meh

So St. Louis fought off Cleveland and Miami to secure the services of tight end [who fancies himself a wide receiver] Jared Cook.

Cook finished up last season as fantasy's 20th-best tight end in terms of scoring, averaging around 5 points per game.  Very mediocre, especially when you consider the competition at tight end was fairly weak last season, with only Jimmy Graham, Gronk, Tony Gonzalez, and Heath Miller (!) cracking the 8-points-per-game plateau.

Jared Cook is a very talented dude.  He's big, he's fast, he should be an explosive weapon as a member of the new wave of hyper-athletic tight ends.  However, I don't think the guy is much of a football player, just in general.  Part of the problem is that he hasn't embraced his position.  He wants to be a jumbo wideout, not a complete tight end.  Maybe he stays healthy and the light flickers on for him, now that he's reunited with Jeff Fisher.  But that Rams offense is not the kind of situation where this sort of piece can click into place and then the player can just take off.  I like Chris Givens a lot, and I still think Sam Bradford can find his groove as an above-average NFL passer, but - especially if the Rams let Danny Amendola slip away - there just are not a lot of weapons to open things up for Jared Cook in this offense.

I predict the weight of expectations coupled with his frailty and uncanny ability to fade away from the box score leads Cook to be a bit of a disappointment in St. Louis.  He'll get some early pre-draft buzz in fantasy, as a talented player in a new situation, but I expect we'll see more of the same -- top-15, top-20, top-25 tight end production, ~5 or 6 points per game, and a guy you can't really use as anything more than a TE2.


One thing I do like about Cook arriving in St. Louis is that it figures to loosen up the box a little bit for whomever ends up getting the carries out of the backfield for what is certain to be a run-first offense.  Daryl Richardson might have staked his claim to some carries, but the guy I'm watching is Isaiah Pead.  If he can get through training camp and earn a role in this offense, I think he's a sexy little sleeper for your fantasy draft.  But then again, the Rams might bring in a free agent power runner (but Richardson and Pead are smaller, speedy guys) or work the draft for more RB talent.  In any case, there will be some surprise value at RB off of this Rams roster, so keep your eyes on the situation.

My money's on Pead.

Mike Wallace to Miami -- Winners & Losers

In case you live in a cave, a chasm, or Cleveland, you already heard that Mike Wallace signed with the Miami Dolphins this afternoon.  Here's my take on the winners and losers of the deal, strictly from a fantasy football perspective:

WINNERS

• Antonio Brown.  If he wasn't already, Brown is now certainly the apple of Big Ben's eye.  Brown might be a legit WR1 in fantasy football in 2013.
• Ryan Tannehill.  He's got a legit #1, go-to target in the passing game now.  I actually like Tanny as a sleeper in 2013.
• Dolphins running backs.  Be it Daniel Thomas or Lamar Miller or whomever ends up toting the rock for the Fins will have a lot more room to run now, with a bonafide deep threat scorching the sidelines.  Dolphinitely.
• Brian Hartline.  He wasn't a #1, but was forced into the role in 2012.  While he had some explosively big games en route to a solid 1000-yard season, he only scored one touchdown, and was too inconsistent from week to week to be relied upon in fantasy.  With Wallace in town, Hartline might see a dip in production to around 800 yards, but I bet his TD total climbs to around the 6-7-8 area.  Overall, that's a boon to Hartline's value.
• Greg Jennings.  He's now the top wide receiver available in free agency.

LOSERS

• Mike Wallace.  Sorry bruh, but the Dolphins offense is not as good as the Steelers offense, and Tannehill - as talented as he is - is no Ben Roethlisberger.  Wallace's numbers might climb with more targets in Miami, but I think his ceiling for production is significantly lower.  Strong WR2, at best.
• Ben Roethlisberger.  Call me a hater, but I think Antonio Brown is a fairly uninspiring go-to wideout.  Ben is running low on gamebreaking targets.  You can't keep hemorrhaging guys like Santonio Holmes and now Mike Wallace without seeing a dip in production at some point.  I see Ben as a QB2 now.  I never would have drafted him s my starter, anyway.  But now?  Nobody should.
• Davone Bess.  I like Bess as a slot receiver in real-life football, but in fantasy he's just not productive enough to matter.  With Wallace around, Bess will see his targets drop from ~100 to ~60 (or less).  A 40% drop in targets means a 40% drop in production, which means a near-worthless player becomes completely worthless.
• The Steelers.  It delights me to no end to watch this team erode.
• The Dolphins.  I think they overpaid for this player.  Five years for $65 mil, with $30 mil guaranteed.  That's $13 mil a season for a guy that many (including the Steelers organization) see as too one-dimensional and too much of a bad seed to command that kind of money.  That's a lot of cap space tied up in one player.  To me, their thee-year move from Brandon Marshall to Mike Wallace is a net loss.  I don't think it poisons the team or anything like that, but I do think it imposes a cap on their potential as an offense.

Trade Talk: Percy Harvin to Seattle

Harvin Makes Seattle Even More Dangerous

The Scoop

News broke yesterday that Minnesota agreed to trade disgruntled wide receiver Percy Harvin to Seattle for a collection of draft picks. The Vikings haul from the Seahawks includes their 2013 first rounder (25 overall), 2013 seventh round selection, and a mid-round pick in 2014.

There had been a lot of noise that Harvin was upset in Minnesota and was considering holding out, possibly long into the season. Percy had made it clear he wanted out of town.

Seattle ponied up one of the most prized possesions in the NFL, a first round pick, with some other sweeteners. Its a ballsy, unconventional move in today's NFL, but this looks like a great deal for both teams.

Minnesota gets an additional first round pick to target younger, cheaper and ideally, less troublesome talent. They rid themselves of Harvin's headache(s) and now have a blank slate at the wide receiver position.

Seattle gets an electric play-maker to join their young, blossoming offense. Its not all puppies and roses though, as Harvin needs to pass his physical and get a new deal. Word on the street is he is looking for Calvin Johnson money, which is absurd. Aim high, I guess.

Fantasy Impact

In Seattle, both quarterback Russell Wilson and running back Marshawn Lynch have to love this news. Harvin is a unique weapon that should help take the top off of defenses and provide Wilson and Lynch less trash in the box. Harvin's elite speed and dynamic open field moves should prove a boost to Wilson's overall passing numbers, as well. The Seahawks current receiving corps should see a down-tick in their production, but deep threat Golden Tate has the best chance to maintain his value.

In Minnesota, the impact is much less clear. They have a bunch of nobodies at the receiver position, so the prevailing wisdom is that they'll be taking a big swing at a free agent wide receiver in the coming days. Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings come to mind. Jennings would be especially delicious in the Packers' division. Don't be surprised to hear some Danny Amendola noise, as well. The draft pick compensation could also be used to grab some young wide receiver talent, as speedster Tavon Austin would have to be mighty tempting if he were still available at pick 25. Either way, expect tight end Kyle Rudolph to see an increase in targets. Beyond that, its anybody's guess. But someone will have to catch passes in Minnesota, right?

Parting Shot

Adrian Peterson didn't like this deal and took to twitter to tell the world. Understandable. The sledding doesn't get any easier for AP with Harvin gone, but the guy is a stone cold stud and would probably gain 1,500 yards against 11 men fronts. No worries.

The REAL Seven Rounds

Thought THIS was kind of interesting.