Nathan's Nits - Week 7

The Nits are back after a longer than expected layoff. No reason. No excuses. Just didn't happen. And I can't promise this is a proper article. But I've got a few things I want to share with you, and I do have updated numbers to share with you at the end.

Week 5 - Barclay Street Bruisers

It went uncelebrated, but back in Week 5 Paul had the single greatest game in the 13+ seasons of CKL fake football. This lead me down a particularly squirrely rabbit hole, where I had to verify this fact. Check out this table, which shows all CKL individual game scores of 130.0 or above, since the beginning of CKL time (through week five of this season).

Team	Season	Week	Points
Barclay Street Bruisers	14	5	162.5
Pink Nightmare	10	15	158.3
Pink Nightmare	5	9	157.6
Pink Nightmare	12	1	152.9
Blackpool Penguins	11	12	148.8
OO Pro	14	3	148.4
Kick Azz Giants	3	13	148.0
The Flaccid Stick	6	3	147.5
Barclay Street Bruisers	12	13	147.4
The Magic Stick	12	14	147.2
THUNDER BEAR	11	9	146.8
Voodoo Brown	12	14	146.2
Juris United	6	6	144.6
Juris United	10	14	143.3
Blackpool Penguins	13	14	143.0
Pink Nightmare	5	8	142.6
DaleJr ShrimpCruiser	3	10	142.0
TM Pending	5	12	140.2
monosyllabic acronym	2	4	140.0
Glitterfist Lasersnakes	13	5	140.0
Double-O Daddy	12	13	139.4
Pink Nightmare	11	12	139.3
The Magic Stick	13	13	139.0
Nth Degree	4	3	138.0
Jesus the Moose	11	10	137.9
Double-O Daddy	10	2	137.7
Achilles Heels	8	6	137.6
Juris United	8	6	137.0
THUNDER BEAR	7	2	136.7
Achilles Heels	6	9	136.1
Blackpool Penguins	11	2	136.0
The Champeens	9	15	135.4
Double-O Daddy	11	16	135.2
Kweens Killahs	3	15	135.0
Nth Degree	6	14	134.7
The Sexy Badasses	12	1	134.7
Jesus the Moose	12	2	134.7
Jesus the Moose	10	12	134.5
Barclay Street Bruisers	11	6	133.9
The Hezballers	13	12	133.2
Pink Nightmare	3	16	133.0
Jesus the Moose	11	3	132.9
Pink Nightmare	8	14	132.4
Kick Azz Giants	10	13	132.3
Pink Nightmare	4	11	132.0
Achilles Heels	9	9	131.3
The Sexy Badasses	13	4	131.3
Blackpool Penguins	11	15	130.9
Jesus the Moose	12	8	130.9
The Sexy Badasses	13	13	130.8
Pink Nightmare	12	15	130.5
Barclay Street Bruisers	12	4	130.3
THUNDER BEAR	11	1	130.2
The Magic Stick	12	4	130.1
Nth Degree	3	12	130.0
Pink Nightmare	4	5	130.0
Voodoo Brown	12	12	130.0

A few comments:

• It's very telling how many of the top games came from Kendall's Pink Nightmare.
• Some of these names are like leafing through old photos you drunkenly stumble upon every couple of years in your basement.
• Admittedly, 130 points is arbitrary, but whatever.
• The average season of these games is 9.24. Which means we're scoring way more points now than we did before. Makes sense, as I think the rule changes over the years have favored higher scores. That, and NFL offense/scoring is up across the same period as well.

The Numbers

All Play Numbers

• It's been a while, but it certainly should come as no surprise that Yado has the top spot. Rivers, Freeman, Gostkowski. It's quite the crew Mr. Yakub has assembled in the Middle East.
• Weird to see Paul's BSBs so low in the table despite the third best average in the league. Just wait, it gets worse for Paul.
• Russ has moved into the cellar and is fading. Fast.

Luck

• Joe is historically lucky at this point of the season. He's nearly a full game better than anyone has after been after seven weeks. Or at least back to 2011 when I started doing this. Joe is officially "crazy lucky."
• Ben is the unluckiest, but perhaps not unlucky in love?
• This table hates Russ. Only have two wins!? Well, consider yourself lucky.
• Is there a good synonym for lucky?

Hotness

• Paul's historic Week 5 casts a long shadow.
• The league seems a little top heavy this season.
• BlackBelt BrownBear, the current Blue pennant leader, second from last.

Jenna Von Oy

• Ben and Jenna have history. They're clearly two neighboring pieces of a jigsaw puzzle.
• Paul is right there though.
• From roughly Pink down, wins needs to be had. We're only halfway home, but these teams need to trend up. And only Kendall is doing that right now.

Playoff Seeding

• Check it out, the first new table in several years!
• This shows your current playoff seed, your seeding change from the previous week, wins/losses, and total points. The idea is to make it a little easier to see exactly where you stand and what you need to have happen to improve your lot.
• Corey is the current cuckold of Ms. Von Oy---he has a playoff caliber record but hasn't scored enough points. Best of luck holding off Ben and Paul, Corey---those two are professional lady killers.

FAABnalysis -- 10/21/15

I realized this week why I'm making fewer trade offers, griding gears in FAAB, sitting at 2-4, and struggling to get juiced about fantasy football in general: I'm not excited about any of the "new" players on the scene.  Lets break it down.

• I mean, the Red Rifle is balling out, and of course I love that... and of course I love the Bengals being 6-0 (WHO DEY!)

• Blake Bortles is a top-5 QB?  Does anyone actually think that's for real?
• Carson Palmer.  Fartsound.
• Tire-rod Taylor, former Hokie.  Fartsound.
• Yado drafted Devonta Freeman, and it's been cool to see him absolutely explode this season and power the Hezballers to a 6-0 start... but like with Bortles... does anyone think that Freeman (or the Falcons, or specifically the Falcons' running game) is for real?

• Mark Ingram's mid-career surge is interesting, but JPA overdrafted him (which now seems like a fairly smart pick), and nobody is excited about the sad state of affairs in New Orleans.  That team looks like crap.
• Chris Ivory is a top-5 RB.  That's a very un-sexy runner in a very un-sexy offense putting up boner-worthy numbers.
• Muscle Hamster, doing some post-hype work, but the Bucs suck.
• Carlos Hyde looks decent, but it also looks like a fragile situation.
• Dion Lewis... just had a sub-5-point game, and who ever knows how Belicheat is going to deploy his backs?
• Danny Fucking Woodhead is a top-15 running back.  Yawn.

• Nuke Hopkins is having an exciting breakthrough campaign, so that's cool.
• Who is Travis Benjamin?  I think that's another situation - like with Bortles and Freeman - that a top-5 player at his position thru 6 weeks ends up outside the top-20 at his position for the rest of the season.
• James Jones???
• Tyler Eifert is a super-sexy breakout.
• Gary "Big Play" Barnidge?  He's the Bortles/Freeman/Benjamin of tight ends.

I don't know, maybe I'm wrong.  Maybe I'm just pissy because I've been losing.  Fantasy football is ALWAYS awesome, I just don't feel the torso-splitting torque this season that I usually experience.  Am I alone in that sentiment?

This week's FAAB has a chance to help start reversing that trend, by the way.  Ben's $23 claim of Stefon Diggs is, in my humble opinion, the second-sexiest auction victory (behind Charcandrick West) of the season.  Diggs looks, feels, and plays like he's trying to be the Vikings' go-to guy.  A 5th round rookie with young Victor Cruz peripherals.  Gotta love that.  Nice claim for Ben, walking into the lion's den and snatching Diggs away from $22-bidding Pink Nightmare and $19-bidding Bruisers.  Rookie and Nathan also had Diggs on their radar.  Where was everyone else?  A fucking travesty we didn't have 10+ teams bidding on this guy.

Meanwhile, may I add: FUCKING SHIT, FUCK FUCK FUCK, I REALLY WANTED STEFON DIGGS! ONE FUCKING DOLLAR!?!? FUCK!

Deep breath.

And release.

I guess Kirk needed a cube for the A-Rodge bye week, but I really think an $11 claim on Brian Hoyer was a bit extravagant.  Coulda landed that shittbutt for free.  This bid was like buying a Big Mac meal at McDonald's and then dropping the cashier a $20 tip.  Kirk, here's a tip for you: I know you got lucky with Hoyer once before, but the reality is that he sucks.  Sorry, brother.  All the same, thanks for delivering the week's #2 claim, and for setting an appropriate price for a decent bye-filler at QB.

Eric Kendricks for $5?  Now who's slinging out money in unnecessary increments?  Truth be told, I've had my most fun at fantasy football this season doing the weekly DP grind.  What can I say?  I got stuck on the rails of the Kendricks hype train.  I do think he's a top-10 DP rest of season, so fuck the haters.

Yado bid the same five bucks on Antwon Blake.  Gotta be honest, I have no idea who that cat is.  He's a total unknown to me.  Oh, and the Steelers and all their fans can die of gonorrhea and rot in hell.

Ben bid $10 on James Starks, but already had Diggs filling his hole, so missed out.  That was bon chance for Paulie, who reeled in Starks for $4.  A mere pittance if Starks ends up being the Packattack's bellcow.  But gazing into my crystal ball... he isn 't... and he won't.  The past preludes the future on this one, I'm afraid.  James Starks is a decent real-life backup, and at best a fantasy football roster-filler.

Moves like landing Benjamin Watson for $4 is a good example of why Chad is sitting at 4-2 right now.  Smart football.

...What's maybe not so smart is Dannell Ellerbe for $4.  Sure, 14 tackles in week 6.  But, y'know, groin injury suffered in that same game.  Ellerbe is a good player who just happens to be made of glass.  None of that matters to Chad, though, because he followed up the Ellerbe claim with a $4 Michael Wilhoite claim.  Looks like Chad is hellbent on upholding his reputation as the defensive player whisperer here in the CKL.  Hell, it won him a Cup, so nothing but respect out of me.

Michael Floyd for $2.  Why do I insist on torturing myself?

Rookie threw the two-week boomerang with Kyle Rudolph.  Not a bad one dollar deal when you're talking about a young(ish) guy with undeniable talent and an improving quarterback.

That was all of the noteworthy action this week.

Stefon Diggs should have gone for $50, and 10+ CKL teams should have been bidding.  We're still doing FAAB wrong, people.  Step the fuck up.

Fastest FAABnalysis Ever... 10/14/15

I have to go fire a guy in 39 minutes.  Tick, tock.

Charcandrick West - $71 to Nathan
$62 to Kendall
$50 to Norris
$42 to Joe
$31/$16 to Ben
$28 to JPA
$25 to Doc
$21 to Chad
$19 to Rook

The psychology of FAAB is so interesting to me.  I mean, it's not like we're bidding totally blind; there are no rules that state that this thing has to be conducted in a vacuum.  If you want more fantasy football strategy and gamesmanship, FAAB is your homeboy.  (And no, Russ, this does not mean an auction draft is the way to go.)

I just have one question for Nathan: What would you have bid if I hadn't declared my $62 bid on the message board.

And a question for everyone else: Did you think I was bluffing?

Do you think I'll be bluffing next time?

Fucking intriguing, this.

And I'll borrow a quote from Nathan, which was spot-on:

I was thinking a bit about how to approach the first few weeks of FAAB. It seems like as a league we kind of pussyfoot around the first couple of auctions before breaking out the big guns. I'm not sure if that is the correct approach. Seems like the earlier you sign someone that has the potential to be a season-changer, the more impact you get from that player and the more you should be willing to pay. Personally, I know I'm afraid I'm going to get stuck with injuries and/or bye weeks up the wazoo later in the season, so I subconsciously take a few bucks off my early season bids as a way to hedge future risk. 

Let's stop waxing philosophic and look at a few numbers. There are 14 CKL teams with $100 each, for a total of $1400 total seasonal FAAB to be spent. The CKL season is 16 weeks long, allowing for an average of $87.50 per week. This assumes everyone spends all their dollars over the course of the season, which is a downright wrong supposition considering we have a freaking trophy for whoever pockets the most money heading into the off-season. 

Given that we have a few weeks of preseason to make a few moves, it makes sense to reduce that average per week a bit. Let's just call it $80. But then again, I think more money should be spent earlier in the year. Maybe early weeks should be more like $120 spent while the end of the season only see $40. 

We're currently 3/16ths through the season. Let's bump that up to a full 1/4 to account for preseason and the fact that post-week 16 FAABs are basically worthless. On average the league should've spent $350.00. On a weighted average it probably should've been more like $440.00. But guess how much we've spent? $314.00. 

I think it's time we get more aggressive, particularly early in the season. Yado gets the blue ribbon.

Nathan is my favorite FAABster, and now I think we can count three people - Yado, myself, and Nate - who are trying to force some league-wide change.

RAINBOW WOLF, I am sincerely glad you landed Charcandrick West.  I hope he's the second coming of Arian Foster.

Josh McCown - $17 to Ben

Sorry Ben, that was a $17 overbid on an old stiff who put up three weeks worth of fool's gold numbers.

Andre Johnson - $6 to Chad

There was bidding around the $5 plateau, and I understand why.  Still, the guy just doesn't excite me anymore.  It's sad how these guys just fade away so quickly, isn't it?

Marquess Wilson - $5 to Kendall

Fuck it, why not?  There is upside there, and I had a roster spot.

Brandon LaFell - $2 to Joe

One step ahead of the game, Joseph.  Well done.

Danny Amendola - $1 to Derrick

Bye week filler?  Or something more?  If Alan were here, he'd say "I like his talent.  I've had my eye on him for a while now."  Fart.

Nathan's Nits - Week 4

There has to be a morning after.

Things move pretty fast around here. Just last week Chad's OO Pro squad looked like a conquering platoon, easily slaying opponents while dropping megatons of points over the blood-spattered battlefield. But in Week 4, Chad was a shadow of his early season self and lost his first game of the season. It's a week-to-week league, folks. It's great to have those wins in your pocket (except for Patrick and Kendall), but your team's strength moving forward is what matters most.

Before we take our next step forward, though, let's look back. We're pretty much two months removed from the live draft, and the decisions made that day still reverberate through the league's power structure. Who did well? Who screwed the pooch? Let's investigate the first round of the draft in depth, and next week we'll cover other notables from the remainder.

2015 CKL Draft - Round 1

Rookie blew a little bit of smoke about being conflicted about choosing between Marshawn Lynch and A.J. Green at the pole position of Selection Saturday. I think most everyone knew he was trying to draw up some sort of overpriced demand for the top pick, and that he truly wanted Lynch. That was common sense. Plus, he already had Randall Cobb and John Brown locking down the WR position. When no one paid the piper, Rookie easily took Lynch and left Green as a consolation prize to Patrick. Unfortunately, Beast Mode has performed like he's in a Skittles-induced diabetic coma, coming in at RB49 through the first quarter of the season. Rookie gets marked down for Lynch's performance, but the selection was the correct one at the time.

Patrick surprised by bypassing Green for Mark Ingram. This could be seen as a reaction to Arian Foster's early August groin tear, as Patrick was looking at the possibility of having no RBs on the team if he went with Green at this pick. Patrick eschewed average draft position and expert rankings and it's paid off to this point, as Ingram is RB6 to date.

If Patrick's pick was a slight-to-medium, although certainly understandable, surprise, Yado's pick at three was the slam dunk WTF moment of the entire draft. It's not Peerless-Price-to-Brian-Steele redonkulous, but it's close. Golden Tate wasn't on on my radar for anywhere close to the first round, nonetheless at three overall. And the results bear that out: WR55, 10.4 points scored for The Hezballers over the first two weeks of the season, and a warm spot on the bench since. But Yado doesn't care, because he has other performances (and some agro FAABing) propelling him to a 4-0 start.

Editor's Note: this is the moment I start to do a little dance in the lake house kitchen.

Derrick is up next at four, and with two quality WRs and Gronk kept, he's going RB all the way. He makes a chalk selection with Alfred Morris. Morris has had to deal with the kinda unexpected rise of rookie Matt Jones which has clipped his upside significantly. Morris is RB34.

Gonna try not to oversell this point: A.J. Green should have never been available for me at five. But he was. So I took him. Five seems to be a magical spot in the first round. Luck last year and Green this. WR7 to date. Red Rifle looking like a Pro Bowl lock. Sometimes there's a man...

Thankee

While it took to the end of the first round last season to get the first rookie selected (Bishop Sankey (the Christmas poo - thanks, K) to Chad at 13), Ben got his man with Todd Gurley. While the outlook was very unclear during the early weeks, now Ben's pick must have him uber excited. Gurley exploded onto the NFL scene last week with a quickness, and he looks to be a locked in starter going forward for the Pigs. Ignore his RB56 rank, that number to going to rocket upwards. Well done.

By keeper quality alone, Chad's OO Pro squad looked like a playoff lock. Going out and getting Drew Brees at six was another move to solidify his hold on premium players at each position. I thought Brees might've been gone earlier, although some folks thought he might last to the second, based on some pre-draft league-wide banter. Brees has disappointed thus far, although you can't really blame him for getting his shoulder dinged. He looks to be a QB1 going forward, so the ultimate story of this selection remains to be told.

A perfect mix of pre-season hype and homerism had Ameer Abdullah heading off to Corey's newly minted H'Orcs. The cat is clearly talented, but after flashing in Week 1, he seems to be held back by a disappointingly lackluster Detroit Lions offense. Corey has Ameer benched this week as of press time, signifying his lack of trust in this situation. An RB23 performance to date isn't horrible, but Marquardt certainly wants more.

The rookie running back run continued when Russ selected San Diego's Melvin Gordon. Despite a (perceived) clearer path to greater volume than Abdullah, Gordon has underperformed and been outplayed by white boy running back Danny Woodhead. RB40 is a miss.

It was only a few year's ago that Joe's Big Jorillas were defined by year-after-year of poor luck. That narrative has been thoroughly flipped on its head. Joe took Kelvin Benjamin, who would quickly get injured and be put on injured reserve. Despite getting nothing from his first round pick, BlackBelt BrownBear sits at 4-0 with a chance to take over sole possession of first place this week with a win over The Hezballers. I guess a first round pick can't doom you after all.

At 11 Kirk nabbed super unsexy badass Frank Gore to head up his RB position. I loved this pick at the time, as I was locked into Gore at five before A.J. Green starscreamed into my lap. Gore started slow but has been moving up the RB ranks of late. RB21 on an underachieving Colts offense with a positive trajectory, I'd say this was a solid pick.

No, Starscream isn't listening to you. He's thinking about shaming Richard Sherman.

Norris took hyped up second year WR Jordan Matthews next. With Maclin and Julio giving the Penguins WR1 production at both spots, Matthews gets to chill on Norris' bench. At WR29 to date, Matthews is a bit of a miss, but the fact that Norris doesn't have to start him helps. I think this selection was just fine.

The highlight of Norris' draft day.

Speaking of over-hyped second year receivers, Brandin Cooks went to Paul at 13. The whole New Orleans offense is in a funk, and it appears Cooks might not be true #1 WR material. WR52 to date, this is a bust that Paul still has to start. At least he's sipping whiskey out of the CKL cup and generally NGAF.

Kendall wrapped up the first round and started the second with two rookies, Oakland's Amari Cooper and Jacksonville's T.J. Yeldon. These were both picks with an eye to the long-term future. But they're also producing early, as WR17 and RB 30 respectively. They're certainly not the reason for Pink's unprecendented* 0-4 start to the season.

*unverified

Misc

It's hella interesting that the two remaining undefeated teams are facing off (Joe's BlackBelt BrownBear vs. Yado's The Hezballers) while the two remaining winless squads are going at it (Kendall's Pink Nightmare vs. Patrick's Glitterfist Lasersnakes). We'll only have one team on each end of the spectrum come Tuesday morning. My money is on Joe and Patrick to occupy those bookends.

I love how Yado is making it rain in FAAB. $20 remaining with three-quarters plus of the season to go, and the next closet is Kendall with $62. Dude might be an outlier, but he also might force some change league-wide.

The Numbers

All Play Numbers

• As mentioned earlier, Chad has come back to the pack quite a bit. Now a full eight teams are within one week's performance of the top spot.
• Kendall climbs out of the basement, while Patrick has metrics that indicate he could be there for a while: lowest average points, lowest high score, and lowest standard deviation.
• Watch out for Joe as his Bear squad is hard to kill.

Luck

• Yado and Kendall are exact opposites, both in actual wins and in luck score.
• Look at Chad being all like: "What luck"?
• I don't trust the two-win teams with positive luck at this point of the season. Potential paper tiger alert.

Hotness

• I'm not talking to Joe or Yado for several days.
• Pink is on a bit of an island, with 7.3+ points clear on either side of him.
• KAG is right on the CKL league-wide average of 92.3. Seven teams are above him, six below. 

Jenna Von Oy

• Kirk, Derrick and Rookie are like the last three dudes at the club when the lights go up and the music cuts out and they've all been talking to the same girl. Unless everyone involved is a stone cold freak, she's only picking one of you, at most. At least two are going home to nothing but regret, lotion, and probably a long shower cry.
• The gap between the bottom and top has narrowed---everyone is still in it. But the loser of Patrick/Kendall is in big, big trouble.
• You'd like the see Paulie make a move so he has a chance to defend his cup.

Sorry this was so late, y'all.

FAABnalysis -- 10/7/15

It was a must-win game for me in week 4, and I turned in the week's second-highest score... and lost to the high scorer.  So fuck you, FAABnalysis.  I'm going to mail it in, and do just a good enough job to put the rest of you shitbags in check, but not expend any real energy on the effort.

This week's FAABnalysis - superlatives style!

BIGGEST CLAIM
Ben Roethlisberger - $14 to Paul
I get it.  He'll be back soon, and he's a rapist, and Paul loves rapists.  Wait, what?  Oh, sorry, I meant he has weapons, and could produce top-10 QB numbers in the season's second half.  That's what I meant.

BEST CLAIM
Willie Snead - $9 to Rookie
I bid $7, so that made it a competitive auction.  And maybe there's something to this Brees/Snead synergy.  It sure as hell isn't happening for Brandin Cooks, amiright?

FUTURE FRANCHISE PLAYER
Nelson Agholor - $10 to Kendall
But only because it's such a shitty franchise.

DEADLIEST DROP
Teddy Bridgewater - dropped by Corey
He hasn't produced in 2015 and he's on bye this week, but I have trouble believing he's not a future top-10 NFL quarterback.

MOST LIKELY TO RETURN TO FREE AGENCY
Jameis Winston - $0 to Joe
Impatient team, middling player, deep position.  I'd be shocked if Famous Jameis is a BrownBear this time next week.  Not to mention the fact that this looks like a simple bye week fill-in.

CONGRATS, YOU'RE ON THE 3rd STRING!
Kamar Aiken - $7 to Chad
OO Pro is actually pretty WR-needy, and I like the symmetry of Chad losing Triple-S (Steve Smiff Senior) and trying to replace him with Clay Aiken, but this isn't going to work out.  Not for the Ratbirds, and not for the O-Pros.

MOST IMAGINATIVE PROJECTION

Jay Cutler - $4 to Russ
It's over, dude.  You gotta let it go.  You popping bottles and fucking your wife in the weightlessness of space is more realistic than Smokin' Jay ever being worth a damn in fantasy football.

OVERBIDDER'S PARADISE
Ben Roethlisberger - $14 to Paul
Only one other person bid, and it was Nathan... for $0.  Of course, honorable mention goes to Rookie on the $11 Sam Bradford claim and to yours truly, who plopped down $10 for Nelson Agholor when nobody else even bid.  FUCK...ing awesome.  Been that kind of season in Nightmareville.

ROOKIE COACKTEASE OF THE WEEK
Jamison Crowder - $5 to Kendall
I believe!  I really, really believe!  ... Until I don't.

PLAYER APTLY NAMED AFTER FEMALE ANATOMY AWARD
Boobie Dixon - $3 to Patrick
Ha ha, "Boobie."

THE WISHFUL THINKING! AWARD (aka THE NO CHANCE IN HELL AWARD)
Chris Givens - $3 to Nathan
I'll be the first to admit that the Plinko chip can click and clack its way down the board in mysterious and wondrous ways, but in no way can I imagine it sliding into the "Chris Givens is a productive wide receiver in Baltimore!" slot.

AIRPORT CINNABON OF THE WEEK
Benjamin Watson - $1 to Chad
Yep, must be bye weeks.

PRICIEST IDP
Hau'oli Kikaha - $5 to Rookie

He's a one-dimensional pass rusher who has dumbassed his way into three sacks and a handful of tackles playing for a bad Saints team.  I'll go ahead and cue up the inevitable 2 tackle / zero sack performance in week 5... and we'll see Rook tossing a Lincoln at the next young sackster a week from now, I guess.

BOOMERANG OF THE WEEK

Vincent Rey - $0 to Kendall

Welcome back, Vinny Rey.

PENNY ANTE OF THE WEEK

Theo Riddick - $0 to Nathan

Talented young player, fighting through the franchise's apparent desire to marginalize him.  You'll hear some Zach Zenner buzz this week, but I think it's cool that Nathan went for Riddick.  (The Lions, by the way, are a mess.  I mean, if there's Zach Zenner buzz, you know you're a mess.)

KICKER OF THE WEEK
Sebastian Janikowski - $0 to Norris

Kick some ass, SeaBass.

Nathan's Nits - 2015 Week 3

Dream Car.

Howdy Gremsters! As has become customary, I've waited until three weeks deep into the season to bust out the pocket protector, oil up the old slide rule, and download all the latest macros and templates for Excel. That's ride, it's the flatulent return of Nathan's Numbers!

Hang tight as we handle some housekeeping. Seeing as Corey is the only newcomer this year, I won't have to qualify or overexplain my nerdery---Corey already knows where I'm coming from. But I will provide a bit more of an explanation as I'm posting the charts and graphs than I normally would; both as an introduction for Corey and a refresher for the rest of us.

But before we get to the money shot, let's fluff up on a few other thoughts rattling around the rusty hamster wheel that is my head.

FAAB

I love that we have to blind bid on free agents. Man, the free for all we had five years back was kind of an unfair mess. I know I wasn't the only one setting my alarm for 4:00 am Wednesday morning to sneak some free agents aboard without having to lose my precious waiver priority. Now the weekly Wednesday auction is an EVENT. It's equal parts talent acquisition and poker. We have to figure out how badly we want someone, how much we think others are going to bid, and try not to look like a fool in the process. Because you know Kendall is going to point out any and all missteps in his must read weekly breakdown of the FAAB session.

I was thinking a bit about how to approach the first few weeks of FAAB. It seems like as a league we kind of pussyfoot around the first couple of auctions before breaking out the big guns. I'm not sure if that is the correct approach. Seems like the earlier you sign someone that has the potential to be a season-changer, the more impact you get from that player and the more you should be willing to pay. Personally, I know I'm afraid I'm going to get stuck with injuries and/or bye weeks up the wazoo later in the season, so I subconsciously take a few bucks off my early season bids as a way to hedge future risk.

Let's stop waxing philosophic and look at a few numbers. There are 14 CKL teams with $100 each, for a total of $1400 total seasonal FAAB to be spent. The CKL season is 16 weeks long, allowing for an average of $87.50 per week. This assumes everyone spends all their dollars over the course of the season, which is a downright wrong supposition considering we have a freaking trophy for whoever pockets the most money heading into the off-season.

Given that we have a few weeks of preseason to make a few moves, it makes sense to reduce that average per week a bit. Let's just call it $80. But then again, I think more money should be spent earlier in the year. Maybe early weeks should be more like $120 spent while the end of the season only see $40.

We're currently 3/16ths through the season. Let's bump that up to a full 1/4 to account for preseason and the fact that post-week 16 FAABs are basically worthless. On average the league should've spent $350.00. On a weighted average it probably should've been more like $440.00. But guess how much we've spent? $314.00.

I think it's time we get more aggressive, particularly early in the season. Yado gets the blue ribbon.

Team Tiers

Here's an off-my-head breakdown of how I see the teams tiering up, from worst to best. These thoughts will be refined (and refuted) by the numbers coming later.

What The Hell Happened?

Pink Nightmare - It's seriously odd and off-putting seeing the four time champ struggling so mightily. We all know he'll right the ship, but will the lead he is spotting the rest of the league be too much to overcome?

Needs Improvement

Glitterfist Lasersnakes, The Magic Stick, Barclay Street Bruisers - Not terribly surprising to see Patrick down here, as he mostly only contributes a great team name and a once-a-blue-moon reddit-funny post. Russ and Paul, though? They're usually competent. Plenty of time to turn it around fellas.

The Mosh Pit

L8 Half-Orc Sorcerers, Sexy Badasses, Blackpool Penguins, Mele Kilikimaka, Trophy Husband - Everyone here seems destined to be in the fight for a playoff spot, although Rookie needs to start winning (or start warming up those oils Jenna likes to use as a pre-game). Some of you (Corey, Ben) have super annoying team names to type so I'm sorry but I'm going to have to root against you doing anything noteworthy.

You tell me you ain't hit that!?

Looking Good

The Hezballers, BlackBelt BrownBear, Scroll Scroll Scroll, Kick Azz Giants - I expect all four of these teams to either make the postseason or be bitterly disappointed.

Aaron Rodgers is a magician and he gets to sleep with Olivia Munn

OO Pro - Damn. Just think about that.

The Numbers

All Play Numbers

• This is a table that is sorted by your team's record if you played every other team each week. It also lists total points, weekly high, low, and average, as well as standard deviation, which shows you your typical scoring range. Both add/subtract your standard deviation to/from your average and you get your typical scoring range.
• Chad's numbers, while not as sexy as Munn, are damn fine. He's got an early season grip on the coveted triple crown of highest how, low and average. And he nearly has Mr. Explosive as well.
• Speaking of Mr. Explosive, the title held by the team with the highest standard deviation, Russ' Magic Stick have it right now. That's what happens when you have a 50 point difference between your high and your low.
• Chad's 34-5 start is only recently bested by his own 35-4 record after three weeks of the 2011 season. Not for nothing, but Chad started 3-0 in 2011 only to go 3-7 down the stretch, losing all three of his conso contests. Cautionary tale?

Luck

 

• This table calculates your average wins based on your all-play record. Then is compares it to your actual record and gives you a luck score. High = lucky; low = unlucky.
• Makes sense that Yado is at the top, but the real kicker is Rookie at the bottom. Gotta go hard after Jenna, Rook.
• The divisions don't mean anything besides playoff seeding, but man is Blue both clearly BETTER and clearly LUCKIER so far.

Hotness

• This is just your average for the last three weeks, which will take on more meaning as the season goes along.
• Chad dominates, Kendall supplicates.

Jenna Von Oy

• Jenna is the prize for that hard charging team who can't get the Ws on the board. Score more than everyone not in the Playoff Top 5 and the girl is yours. Oh and you get the six-seed.
• Derrick gets the initial honors while everyone but maybe Paul, Patrick and Kendall are within a weeks' striking distance.
• Girl likes to get freaky, and its a good thing for Derrick, Rookie and Ben, as without her in your lives Kirk would have the six spot right now.

Next week: a look back at the first two rounds of August's draft.

Have a great weekend and stay safe, especially those of us getting drowned right now.