December 12, 2012

Wednesday FAABnalysis -- 12/12/12

To it, quickly...



  • 17 total claims
  • 7 cash claims
  • $23 spent
  • $3.29 per cash claim

Jon Baldwin -- $6 to Mark
dropped: Mario Manningham / other bids: $0 to Joe
Baldwin is a hulking wide receiver whose game I really like.  He's also the Chiefs' de facto #1 receiver, for whatever that's worth, with Brady Quinnjuice throwing shot puts at him.

Jon's the one with the dickhead hat.

Clay Harbor -- $6 to Norris
other bids: $2 to Alan
What did they do on Magnum P.I. when Tom Selleck went down?  They cancelled the fucking show.  What do the Eagles do when Brent Celek goes down?  They try some weird spin-off where T.C. and Higgins become a gay couple and get into adventures in the helicopter.

Fuck yeah!


Dumpster Diving...

Rod Streater, $4 to Ben -- Meet the new Denarius Moore.  Younger... stronger... bigger... yet still shagging passes by that sausage-stuffed colostomy bag Carson Palmer.  Also, there's no "a" in Streeter, asshole.

LaMichael James, $3 to Mark -- We always play at the possibility of one of these claims becoming an actual keeper-quality player.  We say it could happen, but I don't think anyone ever actually believes it.  Well, in this case, I actually believe it.  Is it so difficult to imagine Frank Gore going down and the electric LaMichael James exploding to lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl?



Yadda, yadda, yadda, gotta spend to win.  Here's a pic of Shiva.  Love that girl.

Shivakamini Somakandarkram Shivakamini

December 5, 2012

Wednesday FAABnalysis -- 12/5/12

Sleeker, meaner.




Let's rocket through this shit.


  • 11 total claims
  • 7 cash claims
  • $44 spent
  • $6.29 per cash claim

Donnie Avery -- $24 to Russ
dropped: Domenik Hixon / other bids: $7 to Norris, $4 to Derrick, $2 to Chad
Nice add for Russ, but the person I want to talk about first is Derrick.  Doesn't it hurt when you [smartly] pick a guy up, he produces, but then he gets hurt and you drop him... and then he ends up coming back and being a hot FAAB claim?  Russ spent nearly a QUARTER of his budget on Avery, for a three week rental in the hunt for ping pong balls in the conso tourney.  I've made this statement before, but I'll make it again: The correct way to manage your budget is to bid big early, land guys who might explode for the whole season.  Hoarding your money only leads you to the $24 Donnie Avery claim in week 14.  We as a league need to fix our behavior on this.  BIG BIDS, EARLY AND OFTEN!

Google image search for "you are doing it wrong" yields this.


Paul Posluszny -- $5 to Alan
dropped: Joel Dreessen or Titus Young (tuesday drops!) / other bids: none
Poz is good enough, I guess.




Montell Owens -- $5 to Norris
dropped: Anthony Dixon / other bids: $0 to Joe
Now we're just going through the motions.





Dumpster Diving...

Justin Forsett, $4 to Kendall -- This is the third time I've added him.  Ben Tate, you are a pussy.

Tony Scheffler, $3 to Kendall -- No Titus Young, no Ryan Broyles... I've got a feeling we're going to see Scheff involved as a slot receiver in Detroit.

Marcedes Lewis, $0 to Joe -- Airport Cinnabon!

Mike Thomas, $0 to Joe -- This is an interesting add.  I'll stack my Scheff up against your Mike Thomas... and we both lose.

The rest? Child please.



Remaining Budgets:
Achilles Heels -- $33
Jesus the Moose -- $31
Kick Azz Giants -- $30
Glitterfist Lasersnakes -- $26
Blackpool Penguins -- $23
The Champeens -- $12
Double-O Daddy -- $6
The Magic Stick -- $5
THUNDER BEAR -- $4
Barclay Street Bruisers -- $2
Juris United -- $2
Roo Tang Clan -- $0
Nth Degree -- $0
Pink Nightmare -- $0


Biggest Claims to Date:

Rashad Jennings, $47 to Nathan on 10/24

Knowshon Moreno, $41 to Paul on 11/28

Alex Green, $32 to Mark on 10/10

Kevin Ogletree, $26 to Kendall on 9/12

T.Y. Hilton, $26 to Chad on 11/7

Jalen Parmele, $24 to Alan on 11/21

Julian Edelman, $24 to Patrick on 11/21

Rashad Jennings, $24 to Chad on 11/28

Donnie Avery, $24 to Russ on 12/5

Greg Olsen, $21 to Kendall on 9/26

Chaz Schilens, $21 to Kirk on 10/3

Danario Alexander, $21 to Mark on 11/14

DeAngelo Williams, $20 to Rookie on 11/28

Andre Brown, $19 to Russ on 9/19

LaRod Stephens-Howling, $17 to Ben on 10/24

Daniel Thomas, $16 to Rookie on 9/26

Robert Meachem, $15 to Paul on 10/10

Chris Ivory, $15 to Alan on 11/7

Marcel Reece, $15 to Kendall on 11/7

Domenik Hixon, $14 to Nathan on 10/3

David Wilson, $14 to Derrick on 11/28

Jeremy Kerley, $13 to Derrick on 9/12

Daryl Richardson, $13 to Derrick on 9/19

Tashard Choice, $13 to Patrick on 9/26

Ramses Barden, $12 to Russ on 9/26

Brandon Bolden, $12 to Paul on 10/3

Montario Hardesty, $12 to Russ on 10/17

Ryan Broyles, $12 to Rookie on 10/24

DeAngelo Williams, $12 to Joe on 11/2

Chad Henne, $12 to Rookie on 11/21

Dexter McCluster, $11 to Nathan on 9/12

Brian Hartline, $11 to Rookie on 9/19

Sidney Rice, $11 to Joe on 9/21 (Friday FAAB Rebound!)

LaRod Stephens-Howling, $11 to Rookie on 10/10

Tim Jennings, $11 to Ben on 10/31

Emmanuel Sanders, $11 to Joe on 11/7

Danny Woodhead, $10 to Patrick on 10/10



That's it for this week. But as always, remember...



GOTTA SPEND TO WIN!

December 4, 2012

Week 13 Numbers

The regular season is crawling away in the rear view mirror. Thoughts of sugar plums dance in the heads of the six Cup contenders. The rest are striving valiantly for personal pride and ever important 2013 draft position. As we head into the post season, let's take one last look at the numbers from the CKL's eleventh regular season.

Its been an honor, gentlemen.

Week 13 All Play Table


Notes:

  • This was seriously close, but I believe this might be my first ever All Play regular season crown. Kendall's late season push nearly overcame my total points advantage.
  • Seven teams finished within 13 games (the maximum All Play wins you can earn in one week of CKL action) of the top spot. That is borderline unbelievable parity amoung the playoff field, plus Kirk.
  • Joe finished in no man's land, 13 games behind Ben but 17 clear of Derrick. Clearly a man on his own.
  • Everyone managed to break the 1,000 point barrier.
  • Norris takes the regular season high score award with his 148.8 explosion in Week 12.
  • Russell "wins" the CKL low for 2012, with a paltry 46.8 scored in Week 7.
  • The "I DIDN'T INHALE" award for lowest high goes to Mark's 106.3 in Week 10.
  • The "I ONLY SLEEP WITH 7s OR BETTER" award for highest low is Chad's 81.6, also from Week 10.
  • Mr. Explosion is Norris', no doubt thanks to his high output surge at the end of the season.
  • Alan is Mr. Reliable, although Mark, Chad and Kirk were all close by.

Luck Index

Notes:

  • It was never in doubt: Achilles Heels are the unluckiest team of 2012.
  • Paul and Patrick tied atop the luck index, although 1.5 isn't really that extreme.
  • Interestingly, if Average Wins determined the playoff teams, Kirk would be in and Ben would be out.

The Hotness

Notes:

  • Norris and Kendall are both white hot heading into the playoffs. Watch out for those two.
  • The six playoff teams occupy the six top spots in The Hotness. Pretty remarkable.
  • Joe edges Kirk for hottest non-playoff team.
  • I'd feel bad for Rookie if he wasn't the Rookie.

Jenny Von Oÿ


Notes:

  • The inaugural Jenna is in the books. While Ben certainly had aspirations for a playoff bye only a short while ago, its somehow appropriate that Ben is the first to bed Ms. Von Oÿ.
  • Kirk, only 20.5 points behind. Ouch.

This is a damn fine league, mates.

November 30, 2012

Week 13 - The Playoffs Prediction


After much strife and struggle, I see a relatively predictable path for the playoffs.

Here is how it works...

Division Champions
1. Nathan is going to win his game this week - 10-3
2. Norris beats Ben                                      - 9-4

The Rest
3. Kendall beats Alan                                                                  - 10-3
5. Paul beats Rookie and effectively eliminates me                        - 10-3
4. Chad wins in a squeaker                                                           - 9-4
6. Ben loses to Norris. 25 point cushion over me gets him the Oy  - 9-4

1st Round

Kendall is 3rd and picks Chad as his opponent   Chad and Kendall have a quiet animosity between each other's fantasy style and I think Kendall would like to prove his style of playing is better by taking Chad out.
Kendall wins that contest and moves on.

That puts Ben and Paul head to head in the nice guy finals, and I see Paul being the victor with Ben hurting for a decent flex player.

2nd Round

Nathan is going to look over the schedule and realize that Paul has the worst week 15.  He'll win that game and sail on to the finals.

Kendall gets Norris.  My heart wants the ratings that come from a Nathan Kendall final, but expansion team Norris will pull it out.  This will teach Kendall to sit alone during the draft, and remind me to get Kendall liquored up before the draft and sit next to him.

Finals

Nathan - Norris.  Thunderbear.

Nathan is back, Kendall's death grip on the cup ends, and the world is somehow better.

Book it.



Week 13 - Predictions and Promises (Part 3)



Okay, on to games that are meaningful and harder to predict.



Champeens at Daddy: Ticket to Ride
ESPN Gameline: Mark 97.6 - Chad 131.2


With the benefit of knowing that Matt Ryan is not going to rake in his 26 points this week, things just got a whole lot more interesting in this game.  The last thing I need is Chad scrounging up 100 points and losing, so if the train is coming off the tracks then I'm going to need a complete fucking Speed failure where Dennis Hopper blows up the shit up when he realizes he's not getting his money. But Chad losing and losing in a fiery derailment doesn't seem likely.
       Everybody on the Daddys has a tasty match-up to end the CKL regular season except Colston last night.  Eric Decker will continue to struggle to break 10, but Jamaal Charles, Owen Daniels and Bradshw should get theirs.
Mark, on the other side, really needs a big game out of Stafford, and a miracle shot from Forte. H Nicks and Cecil Shorts should do fine and any points from Dallas Clark is more of a cherry than a portion of the cream.  Mark I want you to win because I hate Chad, but I need you to lose to get into the playoffs.  Seems like I'll have to settle for Chad being nervous all week as he wins and I still miss the playoffs.



Penguins at Moose:  Hard Rain
ESPN Gameline: Norris 130.5 - Ben 107.7

Bryce Brown isn't sneaking up on anyone this week even if it is the slow to learn Cowboys.  (Defense got me -1 in my other league.  Little bitter.) But Tom Brady at Miami, CJ Spiller plays Jacksonville at home, Andre Johnson at Tennessee  it's going to be a long play for the Moose and an even longer day for me.
        And for those that believe Ben "The Boss" Bledsoe is beginning to slip going into the playoffs, let me add....well yeah.  James Jones is currently the flex play for the once mighty Moose and looking at the bench....that is the best fucking play Ben has.  However when the rest of the team is Lynch, Megatron, V Jax, and Gonzalalistic things could be worse.  You're missing a piece Ben.  Best get to dropping the Benjis on a waiver wire miracle.  Make it rain.

Norris is winning and everyone gets a ticket to the post season.



November 29, 2012

Week 13: Promises and Predictions (Part 2)






Alright gentlemen, time to fuck you up with some truth.  Nathan and Kendall have laid out the stakes and evil duo of Ben-Kirk is here to tell you how things are going to play out.


United at Nightmare: Eat that Shit Fucker!
ESPN Gameline: Alan 108.1 - Kendall 124.9

Alan I want you to win very badly here.  I love Kendall more than any man I have known, but having the Nightmare fall short of grace would add another fucking chapter to this storied season.  And having the 1-11 team reach up with its dying hand and steal it away would lay a motherfucking cherry on top.
      But alas, the stories that make up life generally do not come from the pages of Penthouse Forum.  And for you I do not see the last minute foursome with three wet slutty cheerleaders who have daddy issues and bondage tendencies.  No your final curtain call this season will be swallowing the hot jizz that flows from Kendall ripe dick as he realize that he has made the playoffs again.  Don't let it linger Alan, swallow it down quick and remember that Demaryius Thomas and Dwayne Bowe will still be there for you next year.


Snakes at Stick: See you next season
ESPN Gameline: Patrick 108.5 - Russ 83.7

Patrick you are going to win.  Your team is better. Your match-ups are better.  Russ is beating on Larry Fitz and T Rich to carry him over the line but that won't overcome Reese and Bennett weighing him down.  Also his kicker sucks.

However long term I don't know who you are going to keep.  Good luck with that shit.

Russ as the season closes down, let's take this moment once again to reflect with you.  To reflect on another season of pointless ambition and hours of wasted effort.

Here is the historic record of failure that is your legacy.


2005 - 3-11
2006 - 5-9
2007 - 4-10
2008 - 6-8
2009 - 7-7
2010 - 4-10

2011 - 6-7
2012 - 5-8 or 6-7....does it matter?

Don't think you are getting the most improved fuck you trophy this year.

Russ you are officially the league's bent over whore just waiting patiently to be fuck.  Let it not be said you are a cheap whore, because cheap whores don't garner respect when you brag about fucking them.  No I think your name cares some weight in some circles among some unnamed team managers, but in the end you are a whore just the same. So ready yourself for one more meaningless encounter as someone else pounds out another W from your eternal ass of giving.


And both of you please remember that this weekend I am playing for the playoffs, while you are playing with yourselves.



Editor's Note: I'm on strike.

Week 13 Predictions and Promises - Countdown to Playoffs

Oh the pressure and tension in air.  Lots of new blood on the cusp of their first playoff run.  It would be so fun to have the three and three mix of us blue division new comers and the orange old guard.  But as Kendall demonstrated, no one is safe and Kirk is skulking around the dark, back alley like a methed-out tranny prostitute.  Which song will your Under Pressure bass line lead into?




Wanna be a Rock and Roll Hall of Famer or a skinny white joke of a rapper?  Hey man, I appreciate the cultural significance and love, but you know in your heart it is hilarious, not good.


Kirk and I plan to wrap the regular season with our weekly predictions as well as a prediction for the playoffs.  Here goes.


Roo Tang Clan (5-7) vs. Achilles Heels (4-8): A Quilt of You Bitches
ESPN Line: Heels - 18.8

Well, all those fireworks about the Jenna apparently started a raging fire that quickly burned Kirk's points edge up.  What happened, man?  And can we at least agree that the twist fired up league and made things interesting in an otherwise cut and dried year for playoff seperation.  You know it has been fun.  Admit it.

Kirk and Joe both roll in with the Stone of Shame and hoping by some miracle the CKL gods give them the Stone of Triumph.


These guys have good teams with bad fortunes.  It's been said a million times.  So who gets to be less unfortunate.  My head says Kirk, but my heart says Joe.  Kirk has the recognizable players, while Joe has the effort and upside.  Kirk has greasy hair and Joe has Mr. Fantastic hair.  Kirk sells cars and Joe sells shoes.  Kirk likes the letter X in his kids names and Joe starts all his with the letter L.  Kirk gets drunk and pukes in my car while Joe gets drunk and pukes in my toilet after singing to it.  It is just so hard to choose.

Gotta go with Joe here, riding a wave of young talent.  Kirk runs into frustration as the Packers / Vikes rivalry turns into a low scoring affair.

Roo 103, Heels 90

Thunder BEAR/BUCCANEER (9-3) vs. Kick Azz Giants (5-7)
ESPN Line:  TBear - 13.1

No team looks stronger and more likely to garner the #1 seed than Nathan's Thunder.  He loves Dougie Fresh so much that he renamed his team the TBucs.  And for good reason.  A rookie RB as the #2 fantasy back?  Unbelievable!  And a rookie QB as #1 scorer overall?  Un-fucking-believable!  You look like a drafting genius Nate.

On the other hand, Doc's legendary magic seems to have finally run out this year.  Lots of injuries and not a lot of hope.  The KAG is storing up keeper nuts for the offseason in hopes of a revival in 2013.  It's not a gimme for Nathan, but the odds are stacked pretty heavily against Derrick.

 
TBEAR/BUC 121, KAG 96

Barclay Street Bruisers (9-3) vs. Nth Degree (3-9)
ESPN Line: Nth - 3

I have been watching the Nth Degree devolve this year like a hunk of prime rib rotting in the sun.  At this point I feel like someone has tied me with a full port-a-potty on one side and the decayed beef on the other.  It stinks and I can hardly breath, but thank god I am not locked inside that port-a-potty with Alan.  And hey, maybe in some crazy land rotten meat is a delicacy.  I mean, just because I don't like Roddy White of Run DMC doesn't mean they won't be tasty in the short term.

So, Paul should win this affair despite the shocking ESPN line.  I like Luck, Rice and Ridley (and curse you for shelling out more bones than me for Moreno, who will sit on the bench).  It might be close, as I am still a little iffy on rolling with two Green Bay receivers, but the Rookie is in a death spiral that seems impossible to pull out of.

No, not that.  This:

Bruisers 112, Nth 91


So, now on to the playoff predictions.  Here is what I see happening:

  1. Obviously Nathan and Paul are winners, so they are in.  Both 10-3 
  2. I remain optimistic and confident, so I'm not afraid to pick myself over Norris.  Ben 10-3, Norris 8-5
  3. Pink beats Juris.  Kendall at 10-3, but Paul passes him on points.
  4. Then it gets interesting: Mark beats Chad to send OOD to 8-5 as well.
  5. Kirk doesn't close the gap and the six above make it in.
  • Nathan is #1 seed
  • Ben #2
  • Paul #3
  • Kendall #4
  • Norris #5
  • Chad #6

  • Paul calls out Chad in round one, but loses
  • Norris takes down Kendall
  • Nathan chooses Chad and wins
  • Norris beats me in the rematch (I am not that confident)
  • BEAR over Penguin in the finals


Adios, amigos.  Looking forward to a fun week of football.

November 28, 2012

Wednesday FAABnalysis -- 11/28/12

Big huge haymaker bids today.  I can't wait to get to it.  But first, your soundtrack for today's auction action...


That's right.  ABBA.  Fuck yeah.

Anyway, like I was saying...  If you enjoy bid porn, this week is your stroke show.

  • 15 total claims
  • 10 cash claims
  • $108 spent
  • $10.80 per cash claim

Pop open the cap on your rocketsauce and get to knuckle-dusting...



Knowshon Moreno -- $41 to Paul
dropped: Delon Carter / other bids: $31 to Ben, $28 to Norris, $25 to Chad, $20 to Rookie, $15 to Kirk, $13 to Kendall, $7 to Mark, $4 to Nathan, $0 to Joe
Well, I guess this is why you sit on your money until the end of the season.  Moreno went from 1st round draft pick to the doghouse, to IR, back to the doghouse, back to IR, to inactive on game day, to THE GUY in the Denver running attack.  Ronnie Hillman, you blew it thanks to pass pro worse than Know's.  Jesus.  Moreno faces a decent schedule down the stretch and into the CKL playoffs, but I don't see him starting over Stevan Ridley in the BSB backfield.  So this was a move for some insurance at RB for Paul, along with an aggressive arm-swat type of cockblock to the others who might have wanted Moreno.  Best offense = good defense?  Helvin's cauliflower ear says hello.



Rashad Jennings -- $24 to Chad
dropped: Madieu Williams or DeMarcus Ware (tuesday dropped!) / other bids: $20 to Rookie, $20 to Russ, $0 to Joe, $0 to Nathan
I really don't want to be a dick to you guys throwing double Hamiltons at Jennings, but... have you seen the fucking guy play since MJD went down?  If not, let me clue you in:  He fucking sucks.  How about 2.8 yards per carry?  Does that sound good to you?  And that was across a fairly large sample size, 93 rushes.  Look, I get it -- nothing else to bid on.  But I think I would rather just lay down to rest in the Golden Sarcophagus than throw my money at this bum.  For Chad, Jennings won't start over Jammy-C or Ahmad Bradshaw, but he might give Michael Turner a run for his money in the shitty #3 role.  Speaking of #3...  If piss is #1 and poop is #2, what's #3?



DeAngelo Williams -- $20 to Rookie
dropped: Kurt Coleman / other bids: $10 to Kendall, $5 to Kirk, $0 to Joe
I wonder if DeAngelo is related to the world-famous Lemonjello?  Hey, true story:  My cousin is a 3rd-grade teacher up in DC, and she had a kid in her class named LaDynasty.  That's not Lady Nasty, but it sure looks like it.  Hey, I'm not a racist, I just think some of these names are getting a little bit out of hand.  We need to get back to good old fashioned names like Billy Bob and Cooter.  Wait, what were we talking about again?



David Wilson -- $14 to Derrick
dropped: Cedric Benson / other bids: $12 to Norris, $0 to Nathan
Let me paint a picture for you.  Ahmad Bradshaw goes down with another sprained labia.  Who does Chad use to fill his now-vacated flex spot?  He could have had the new Bradshaw handcuff, the potentially-explosive Giants' 1st round draft pick and former Hokie David Wilson, or he could spend $10 more for the right to use Rashad Jennings.  Derrick is a Giants fan and he's smart enough to know that David Wilson could be keeper-worthy if the right stars align, so I give him a heap of credit for this bold claim.  Chad, I think you missed the boat, my man.  Maybe the stress of trying to make your first-ever playoff appearance is getting to you?



Dumpster Diving...

Dennis Pitta, $3 to Kendall -- I tried a million times to pry him away from T-BEAR at the beginning of the season.  I bludgeoned Nate with trade offers, but he wouldn't budge.  Well, this is my big, giant FU to Nathan.  Win in the end, motherfuck.



Brandon Jacobs, $0 to Kirk -- He lost Kendall Hunter, but was able to sneak in and land Jacobs.  Smooth operation there, Kork.

Dwayne Harris, $0 to Joe -- Like him.  But why not Cole Beasley or Riley Cooper?

LeGarrette Blount, $0 to Nathan -- Smart.  Gotta cuff up the Muscle Hamster for this playoff run.


The rest?  Suck me.


Remaining Budgets:
Achilles Heels -- $33
Kick Azz Giants -- $32
Jesus the Moose -- $31
The Magic Stick -- $30
Blackpool Penguins -- $28
Glitterfist Lasersnakes -- $26
The Champeens -- $12
Pink Nightmare -- $10
Juris United -- $8
Double-O Daddy -- $6
THUNDER BEAR -- $4
Barclay Street Bruisers -- $2
Roo Tang Clan -- $0
Nth Degree -- $0


Biggest Claims to Date:

Rashad Jennings, $47 to Nathan on 10/24

Knowshon Moreno, $41 to Paul on 11/28

Alex Green, $32 to Mark on 10/10

Kevin Ogletree, $26 to Kendall on 9/12

T.Y. Hilton, $26 to Chad on 11/7

Jalen Parmele, $24 to Alan on 11/21

Julian Edelman, $24 to Patrick on 11/21

Rashad Jennings, $24 to Chad on 11/28

Greg Olsen, $21 to Kendall on 9/26

Chaz Schilens, $21 to Kirk on 10/3

Danario Alexander, $21 to Mark on 11/14

DeAngelo Williams, $20 to Rookie on 11/28

Andre Brown, $19 to Russ on 9/19

LaRod Stephens-Howling, $17 to Ben on 10/24

Daniel Thomas, $16 to Rookie on 9/26

Robert Meachem, $15 to Paul on 10/10

Chris Ivory, $15 to Alan on 11/7

Marcel Reece, $15 to Kendall on 11/7

Domenik Hixon, $14 to Nathan on 10/3

David Wilson, $14 to Derrick on 11/28

Jeremy Kerley, $13 to Derrick on 9/12

Daryl Richardson, $13 to Derrick on 9/19

Tashard Choice, $13 to Patrick on 9/26

Ramses Barden, $12 to Russ on 9/26

Brandon Bolden, $12 to Paul on 10/3

Montario Hardesty, $12 to Russ on 10/17

Ryan Broyles, $12 to Rookie on 10/24

DeAngelo Williams, $12 to Joe on 11/2

Chad Henne, $12 to Rookie on 11/21

Dexter McCluster, $11 to Nathan on 9/12

Brian Hartline, $11 to Rookie on 9/19

Sidney Rice, $11 to Joe on 9/21 (Friday FAAB Rebound!)

LaRod Stephens-Howling, $11 to Rookie on 10/10

Tim Jennings, $11 to Ben on 10/31

Emmanuel Sanders, $11 to Joe on 11/7

Danny Woodhead, $10 to Patrick on 10/10



That's it for this week. But as always, remember...



GOTTA SPEND TO WIN!

Week 12 Numbers









All Play




Notes:

  • Seven teams with a mathematical shot at taking the All Play trophy. Realistically, I think its down to BEAR, Pink, Double-O and BSBs.
  • Norris grabs Mr. Explosive from BEN with his CKL season high 148.6 point performance.
  • Chad retains the highest low of any team this season with 81.6. Losing that award could just doom him to missing the playoffs.
  • Everyone has scored over 100 this season. The lowest high score belongs to Mark with 106.3. Alan and Rookie are just in front of him, though.

Luck Index



Notes:

  • I don't see Kirk "losing" the bad luck award this year. Even worse, his grasp on the Jenna has slipped.
  • Joe being near the bottom again has inspired me to conduct an offseason historical review of luck. I think I have the data I need. Should be interesting to put up a lifetime luck index table on the blog during our downtime.
  • Russ currently has a lead on luckiest bad team. Patrick might challenge him, though.

The Hotness


Notes:

  • Rookie. Barf.
  • SLOW DOWN KENDALL. 
  • Mark ain't quitting.

Jenna Von Oÿ


Notes:

  • Kirk has led this thing all year and now he is 35.1 points back. His cheering is going to be so manic this weekend. 
  • Really rooting for Alan to score at least 65.2 points this week.
  • Love you Jenna.


November 27, 2012

Path to the Playoffs

Jenna, you wicked temptress.
You are a damn slut.  Vixen whore.

Thanks to the Jenna von Oÿ (6th seed in the playoffs goes to the highest-scoring team not among the top 5 seeds), a very cut and dried set of CKL playoff berths are instead quite murky.  We essentially have seven teams vying for six playoff spots, and one of the teams is going to lose this game of musical chairs.

Ahhhh, musical chairs.  Reminds me of this video...



Anyway, the six teams with winning records all have great shots at the playoffs... but thanks to the Jenna and Kirk's Achilles Heels, no one is completely safe.  Let's take a closer look at each of these seven teams' path to the playoffs, in descending order of postseason likelihood.


THUNDER BEAR -- 9-3 / 1247.6 points scored
Easy enough for the BEAR: win and you're in.  And facing the 5-7 (1057.2 points scored) Kick Azz Giants, that win doesn't figure to be too terribly difficult to obtain.  If the BEAR loses to the KAG, Nathan can still rest easy on a nice, fluffy 25+ points lead for any/all tiebreakers.  His 66.2-point lead over the Achilles Heels is ironclad protection against falling prey to the Jenna.  He might lose out on the ORANGE Division Pennant and a first round bye, but I think his playoff berth is pretty much guaranteed.  Pulling for: Juris United, Jesus the Moose, Nth Degree, and The Champeens.

Pink Nightmare -- 9-3 / 1206.7 points scored
Another "win and you're in" scenario faces the Nightmare, and Kendall's game comes against the 1-11 (934.8 points scored) Juris United.  So everything looks secure... until you figure in the sprawling history of insane upsets in this Polished Turd rivalry game.  A loss to Juris coupled with wins by both the Blackpool Penguins and Double-O Daddy plunges the Pink Nightmare into Jenna territory, where his 25.3-point lead over the Heels feels shaky (especially considering the fact that if the Nightmare loses to Juris United, they probably didn't score many points.)  Pulling for: Kick Azz Giants, Jesus the Moose, Nth Degree, and The Champeens.

Jesus the Moose -- 9-3 / 1206.4 points scored
A week 13 win for Jesus the Moose locks up a playoff spot and a first round bye as the BLUE Division champion.  But here's the rub: the Moose is playing against the red-hot and super-tough Blackpool Penguins.  Losing that game hands the division over to the Penguins (or maybe Double-O Daddy), and puts the Moose into position to be victimized by the Jenna.  25 points separate Moose from a fate worse than death -- winning nine games and missing the playoffs.  BEAR, Nightmare, Bruisers, and O-Dad are all big Moose fans this weekend, as a win over the Penguins assures playoff berths for all four of those teams, as well.  Pulling for: Kick Azz Giants, Juris United, Nth Degree, and The Champeens.

Barclay Street Bruisers -- 9-3 / 1197.2 points scored
The Bruisers are the fourth 9-3 team, and thus the last "win and you're in" playoff hopeful.  They face the Nth Degree (3-9 / 996.7 points scored) in week 13, and that looks like an easy win, given Nth's late season collapse and emergence as one of the worst teams in the league.  But if the fates turn cruel and the Bruisers end up as Luisers, there's still the safety net of both the Blackpool Penguins and/or Double-O Daddy losing.  If the Bruisers lose and both of those teams win, Paul will be stacking his wobbly 15.8-point advantage against whatever the Achilles Heels can score in week 13, or trying to outpace the Nightmare or Moose (if either/both lose) in order to avoid being von Oÿed by the Heels.  Pulling for: Kick Azz Giants, Juris United, Jesus the Moose, and The Champeens.

Blackpool Penguins -- 8-4 / 1222 points scored
I lied.  There's one last "win and you're in" team, and it's the Blackpool Penguins.  You see, a win over the Moose in week 13 means the Penguins end up tied with the Moose, with more points scored.  Therefore, there would be no way the Penguins could lose their spot to the Jenna.  However, a loss to the Moose puts the Moose, BEAR, Nightmare, and Bruisers into the playoffs, and forces Norris to fight against Kirk for that 6th seed, or maybe Chad for the 5th seed (if the O-Dad also loses).  The Penguins hold a healthy 40.6-point lead over the Heels, so there's not a whole lot to worry about for Norris.  Pulling for: Kick Azz Giants, Juris United, Nth Degree, and The Champeens.

Double-O Daddy -- 8-4 / 1216.5 points scored
Here's where things start to get really scary.  O-Dad is playing his week 13 game against The Champeens, and you know Mark will be fired up to try to win this game after last season's harsh words were exchanged between these two coaches.  The Peens are 4-8 on the season, with 991.7 points scored.  Not a great team, but still a potentially dangerous opponent.  An O-Dad loss puts the Moose, BEAR, Nightmare, and Bruisers into the playoffs, and forces Chad to fight against Kirk for that 6th seed, or maybe Norris for the 5th seed (if the Penguins also lose).  O-Daddy currently holds a 35.1-point lead over the Heels, so it's a nice pillow of points to rest upon.  Pulling for: Kick Azz Giants, Juris United, and Nth Degree.

It seems likely to me that these six teams with winning records will ultimately make it to the playoffs.  However, if things go badly for any of the six, here is the challenger:

Achilles Heels -- 4-8 / 1181.4 points scored
The path to the playoffs for the Heels is pretty simple: score, score, score, score, and score some more in week 13.  Hope that both the Penguins and Daddy win, and the Nightmare and Bruisers lose, so you can take a crack at the three lowest point totals among the six teams with winning records -- Pink Nightmare's 1206.7, Jesus the Moose's 1206.4, and Barclay Street Bruisers' 1197.2.  It's a longshot for the Heels, but the possibility exists for a team with a losing record to make it to the Big Dance.


Best of luck to all seven of these teams on the path the playoffs!



Week 11 Numbers








All Play



Notes:

  • Same six teams tightly packed at the top.
  • Blue jumps from a 60 game advantage to 81! Glad these divisions mean nothing.
  • All of a sudden Joe is Mr. Consistency with a league low 14.44 standard deviation. Ben is comfortable being explosive with a 23.66.
  • Five teams are averaging in triple digits. That seems impressive to me, but I haven't taken the time to compare it to anything.

Luck Index


Notes:

  • Joe and Kirk won, which brings them back to the pack a bit. In fact, Alan now has worse luck than Joe.
  • Still plenty of time for anyone to win the luck contest this year. Ben is only up 0.6.
  • Nine lucky teams compared to five unlucky teams. So weird.

The Hotness


Notes:

  • I think this is the most stratified its been all year. The cream rising, the chaff falling.
  • The top seven are all playoff contenders. It doesn't appear anyone is going to back in.
  • What's colder than cold? Rookie and Alan.

Jenna Von Oÿ


Notes:

  • Norris made a big move to get within shouting distance of Kirk.
  • Joe is running out of time.
  • Everyone should manage 1,000 total points in the regular season; but will they?

November 25, 2012

Week 12 Predictions & Promises (Part 2)

This may be a little rushed but it has taken me 4 days to work up the nerve to look the league with Norris and Kendall scoring so many points and Chad and I playing this week.  I am ill with nerves as I write this, and I had to sub in Crabtree over Amendola.


Nightmare at Giants: 
ESPN Gameline: Kendall 131.9 - Doc 112.5

Doc, Kendall is going to win.  He already has 110.5 points and AJ Green still needs to play.  Kendall is going to the playoffs and is my dark horse right now for the cup if Kendall could ever be considered a dark horse. 

Penguins at Nth - Fuck the Oy
ESPN Gameline:  Norris:109.2 - Rookie 115

Rookie I don't know if I need you to beat Norris or not, but I do know that I need Norris to stop scoring.  Norris if you do score 130 like you are predicting, will you stop whining on the message board?  Because it would almost be worth it for me to not go to the playoffs.  How about this Norris.  If you want to go to the playoffs...win more games.  That way you don't have to deal with the Oy in the first place. 

Norris is way out in front so I have him penciled in for a win.  That and the Rookie is a disappointment to me, the league, and his brother, but still has a attractive doctor wife who seems to genuinely have affection for him, so point to Rookie. 


Champeens at Stick: Oh how I miss the North
ESPN Gameline: ..........didn't bother to look.

Are they still playing?  I mean who cares really. Good luck next season Mark.  Fuck you Russ.


Bear at Moose: Playoff Preview 
ESPN Gameline: Nathan 120.1 to Moose 128.7

This is everyone's favorite game right now because the Nathan destiny team of hope has a real chance of falling into Oy territory to finish the season and a tough march to the Cup.  Both teams are in playoffs but I need Nathan to win out for my own purposes.  He has the start and I think Ben's match-ups will lay the Moose down gently.  

Go Bear. 




  

November 23, 2012

Week 12 Predictions and Promises

Welcome back all to the one-day-late predictions show.  Kirk and I really need to get our sh!t together and back on track for true predictions.  Maybe by playoff time. 

Anyway, hope everyone had their fill of bird, sides and sweets with a spatting of football all day long.  We are in the home stretch and, as usual, things are tight in the playoff race.  Lot of opportunity for spoilers and clinchers this week. 

Achilles Heels (4-7) vs. Double O-Daddy (7-4): Bus 15 Battle
ESPN Line: Heels - 11 

Does it seem strange that the only bus related trophy in this league involves two non-bus drivers?  8 out of 14 of us drove for the prestigious University Transit Service and only Chad and Kirk have a bus-based trophy!?!  That is a travesty.  Commissioner, I demand a trophy awarded to the ex-driver with the highest points total or best record.  We can call it "Gillig Style" or "Flxible Shuffle" or "Unit 5-0's Fat Ass" or something...?  We gotta get this covered.



But on to Kirk v Chad in the Bus 15 Battle.  The Heels continue their insane losing struggles, despite an amazing array of weapons.  DOOD seems to mprove every week and hopes to wreak havok in the playoffs.  Actually, both are on the verge of playoffs and face a strange twist in this matchup.  Kirk has the Jenna Van Oy points if Chad makes the playoffs by record, so if Kirk wins, he may actually knock himself out of the running.  Weird, but cool, my friends.

My call is a close game.  If it weren't the day after the game, I would have said that Hernandez is a great play and the difference maker, but he kinda flopped.  Then there is AP agains the Bears - tough.  I want to pull for you Kirk, but the Daddy is going to punish you.  And not in the "I have been a bad boy" kinky way that i know you like.  This will be more like the "Oops, I embarassed my big brother in front of his friends" punishment.  You think you might get in a few good shots and compete, but in the end there is no contest and you leave demoralized.

Daddy 109, Heel 105

  

Roo Tang Clan (4-7) vs. Juris United (1-10): Blue Balls
ESPN Line: Roo - 4.9 

I am excited that Alan is challenging my worst ever record.  The 1-win history is lonely, Alan.  Come join me.  And, if I'm not mistaken, one more loss results in the Poop Pretzel.  Mmmmmm!

Fortunately Juris is up against Mr. Lucky.  Joe has been selling his wares hard for many a week.  Has everyone felt like they just got off the plane in India, too?  The guy drives a hard bargain and has shaped a competitive team with some very worthy keepers.  You never know who will be on Joe's team from week to week, but you can always be assured that some form of bad luck will hamper the likelihood of a W.  Perhaps this week it will be Jalen Parmelee expoding for 25?  Or Harvin Missing the game?  Maybe Mike Nugent will kick 6 field goals?  Or, oh wait, there it is - Vereen on the bench with 19.3.



So, Alan is hoping and praying to double his win total, but I just don't see a ton of sure things on the roster.  The names and matchups don't inspire confidence (nor do the injuries on the bench).  It has been a tough season for Juris.  Unless Percy Harvin does sit this week out, you should open wide for that oncoming pretzel.

Roo 97, Juris 82

Glitterfist Lasersnakes (5-6) vs. Barclay Street Bruisers (8-3)
ESPN Line: Barclay - 3

Hard to argue againt Paul's team this week, especially since Miles Austin was injured before he caught a ball and some Thursday night points are on the bench for GFLS. 

But there is some intrigue.  You have Paul hedging his bets with two Green Bay WRs.  There is the natural comparison of Luck to Manning.  And finally, Fred Jackson's back in for what I am sure will be less than a game before he is injured again.

I'd put money on Manning and Jackson carrying close to half of Patrick's points this week.  Ballard and Jackson have some real potential though.  If the two of them show up to the tune of 15+ each, I could see a close one.  But what the Snakes really need is a miracle (and someone to turn back time so he could play Edelman instead of Austin).


Paul continues to look strong and poised for the playoffs.  A win this week puts him in great position.  I see that happening in a big way. 

Barclay 112, Snakes 83  

November 21, 2012

Wednesday FAABnalysis -- 11/21/12

We have a lot of stuff going on right now.  The trade deadline just passed.  We're balls-deep in IDP rules changes.  The Jenna von Öy is under attack.  Thanksgiving looms.  And yet, we still found time to squeeze in some auctions today.

The soundtrack for this week:



The stats:

  • 21 total claims
  • 9 cash claims
  • $88 spent
  • $9.78 per cash claim

Before we get into the FAABnalysis, a quick note on Byron Leftwich.  My man shocked the universe when he ran in a touchdown to open the scoring on Sunday night.  Okay, I know Leftwich’s lumbering windup and windmill delivery is legendarily slow, but is it my imagination or does his ball just hang in the air forever as well?  “And Leftwich goes back to pass, he sets his feet and winds up, this Byron Leftwich pass attempt brought to you by Steel City Motors where you always get the Steel City Motors promise of quality and excellence.  Annnnnnnd Leftwich releases.  The pass is at the 30... it's at the 40... it's at the 50... lots of hand checking going on... and the pass is batted down at the 40 yard line. The Steelers are really eating some clock here, that pass attempt took 36 seconds…



Anyway, I'm glad the dude's ribs got popped.  Let's hope to never have to see that choad throw another pass.  On to today's claims...

Jalen Parmele -- $24 to Alan
dropped: Vincent Brown / other bids: $23 to Paul, $21 to Derrick, $18 to Rookie, $17 to Ben, $10 to Norris, $8 to Russ, $4 to Nathan, $0 to Joe
Did I miss something?  Did Maurice Jones-Drew die?  Is Bo Jackson coming out of retirement and working under the pseudonym "Jalen Parmele?"  Is Jalen Parmele an anagram for something wonderful and fabulous?  Planer Jam Lee?  Renal Jampeel?  A Rape Jell Men? Penal Jar El Me?  What the Fuck?  Guys, just let this be a lesson to you: Spend your FAAB money early in the season, else you end up throwing around wads of cash for a useless journeyman running back playing for a crap team, with only one more week of extended work before the injured starter returns to duty.  Jar Palm Eel En?

Julian Edelman -- $24 to Patrick
dropped: Stephen Hill / other bids: $23 to Paul, $13 to Kendall, $6 to Ben, $0 to Joe, $0 to Nathan
This was the correct big-money claim of the week.  As you might have heard, Da Gronk has a broken Gronker, and Tom Brady's balls have to slap gently against someone's chest.  Edelman stands to be one of the prime beneficiaries of the displaced Gronktacular workload, and I bet we're looking at a top-15 wide receiver down the stretch.  (Psssst, don't tell anyone, but Edelman > Welker.  For real.)

Chad Henne -- $12 to Rookie
dropped: David Wilson / other bids: $4 to Russ, $0 to Nathan
Billy Volek says hello.

Aldon Smith -- $9 to Derrick
dropped: Isaac Redman / other bids: none
At some point you have to save some face by dumping your leftover money by buying IDPs for way more than anyone else will bid.  I get it, D.  Your secret is safe with me.

Benjamin Watson -- $6 to Derrick
dropped: Donnie Avery / other bids: $1 to Mark
I think Benjamin Watson sucks because he was never man enough to drop the jamin and just be Ben Watson.  Ben Watson sounds like a tough, lumber-laying, professional tight end, pounding beers and fucking chicks.  Benjamin Watson sounds like some suburbian punk lacrosse player you'd secretly like to see your son run over and spike with his cleats on the football field.  Seriously, who doesn't shorten Benjamin to Ben?

Benjamin


Blair Walsh -- $5 to Kirk
dropped: Donald Jones / other bids: $0 to Mark
Congratulations on buying the Vikings kicker for five bucks and effectively backing up Greg Zuerlein.  I wonder how Donald Jones feels about all of this.  That's a shot directly across the bow of his self-worth.  Hey man, you just got dropped so I could pick up a backup kicker.  OUCH!


Dumpster Diving...

Jared Allen, $4 to Rookie -- WHAT?  He was out there to be claimed?  Who the hell dropped him?  Nice job sneaking in like a thief in the night and grabbing this guy, Rookie.  Condolences to Russ, who also bid four bucks.

Dallas Clark, $2 to Mark -- I bet you're all thinking I'm going to say something about an airport Cinnabon.  But no!  I think this was a really smart claim.  There's definitely a pulse still beating in Clark's chest, and the Bucs offense is riding a serious storm surge.

Harry Douglas, $2 to Ben -- Will the ATL shut down Julio Jones so he can get his leg right?  If they do, Benjamin just scooped up the guy to have in such a scenario.  Not a terrible speculative add.

Bilal Powell, $0 to Joe -- I still like Adrian Murrell Junior, and I still think Shonn Greene is a turd with two legs.  We'll see what cooks here with the Jets; this could end up being a nice grab and stash for Joe.

Christian Ponder, $0 to Joe -- Okay, yeah, this is an upgrade over Foles.

Lance Dunbar, $0 to Joe -- Maybe the guy in Dallas?  Big maybe.  But still, this was a nice trio of free claims for Joseph.

Cedric Peerman, $0 to Kendall -- I always try to add a UVA guy for a good luck charm heading into the end of the season.  Plus, with the Law Firm now in pink, I'm hedging my bets a little bit.

Delone Carter & Mike Goodson, both $0 to Paul -- Lottery tickets, but they're more like expired $1 scratch-offs.

Lance Ball, $0 to Nathan -- Goodbye Rashad Jennings, we hardly knew ye.  $47 down the tubes...

The rest?  I didn't even notice.



Remaining Budgets:
Kick Azz Giants -- $47
Barclay Street Bruisers -- $46
Double-O Daddy -- $35
Achilles Heels -- $33
The Magic Stick -- $33
Jesus the Moose -- $31
Blackpool Penguins -- $28
Glitterfist Lasersnakes -- $26
Nth Degree -- $20
The Champeens -- $13
Pink Nightmare -- $13
Juris United -- $8
THUNDER BEAR -- $4
Roo Tang Clan -- $0



Biggest Claims to Date:

Rashad Jennings, $47 to Nathan on 10/24

Alex Green, $32 to Mark on 10/10

Kevin Ogletree, $26 to Kendall on 9/12

T.Y. Hilton, $26 to Chad on 11/7

Jalen Parmele, $24 to Alan on 11/21

Julian Edelman, $24 to Patrick on 11/21

Greg Olsen, $21 to Kendall on 9/26

Chaz Schilens, $21 to Kirk on 10/3

Danario Alexander, $21 to Mark on 11/14

Andre Brown, $19 to Russ on 9/19

LaRod Stephens-Howling, $17 to Ben on 10/24

Daniel Thomas, $16 to Rookie on 9/26

Robert Meachem, $15 to Paul on 10/10

Chris Ivory, $15 to Alan on 11/7

Marcel Reece, $15 to Kendall on 11/7

Domenik Hixon, $14 to Nathan on 10/3

Jeremy Kerley, $13 to Derrick on 9/12

Daryl Richardson, $13 to Derrick on 9/19

Tashard Choice, $13 to Patrick on 9/26

Ramses Barden, $12 to Russ on 9/26

Brandon Bolden, $12 to Paul on 10/3

Montario Hardesty, $12 to Russ on 10/17

Ryan Broyles, $12 to Rookie on 10/24

DeAngelo Williams, $12 to Joe on 11/2

Chad Henne, $12 to Rookie on 11/21

Dexter McCluster, $11 to Nathan on 9/12

Brian Hartline, $11 to Rookie on 9/19

Sidney Rice, $11 to Joe on 9/21 (Friday FAAB Rebound!)

LaRod Stephens-Howling, $11 to Rookie on 10/10

Tim Jennings, $11 to Ben on 10/31

Emmanuel Sanders, $11 to Joe on 11/7

Danny Woodhead, $10 to Patrick on 10/10



That's it for this week.  But as always, remember...




GOTTA SPEND TO WIN!