2017 CKL Draft Preview: The Keepers

Keepers R Kool

Welcome back, foolios. Thought we'd get the 2017 CKL season started with a look at everyone's keepers heading into Saturday's 16th annual draft. Some of you are looking mighty, mighty strong. It will be your charge to not screw up what you've created. Others of us are drowning, and see Saturday's effort as a potential flotation device. The vagaries of fantasy football mean we all still technically have a chance to take the cup away from Russ (congrats, again), it's just that some of us are in much better position than others.

So let's make a list, starting with the worse set of keepers, and heading to the best.

14. Yado

• WR Davante Adams
• TE Jordan Reed
• RB Rob Kelley

Adams had a career year, with 12 receiving touchdowns, a number likely to diminish in 2017. Then again, he does have Aaron Rodgers tossing him the rock. Reed is better than everyone not named Gronk when he's actually on the field, but that's the rub. He is hurt. A lot. And now he has some sort of toe issue? Yoink. Rob Kelley is average, and lots of folks think he'll lose his job before the season even arrives. I get that Yado is a fan of the Potomac River Basin Indigenous Persons football team, but that can hurt you when you decide to keep Rob Kelley instead of a better option like Willie Snead.

13. Nathan

• WR Terrelle Pryor
• WR Jarvis Landry
• RB Derrick Henry
• WR Martavis Bryant

Pryor seems to have the elite athleticism required to make the damn impressive switch from QB to legit #1 WR. Then again, not many teams came a-calling in free agency. So maybe he's just not that good. He has a pretty wide range of outcomes this season. Landry is a great PPR receiver, but this isn't a PPR league. And having Cutler take over for Tannehill doesn't increase confidence in his potential usage. He'll underperform. Derrick Henry is talented, but has a better bank in DeMarco Murray in front of him. In general, it's a bad idea to keep a understudy player. I probably should've kept Brandon Marshall instead, but I didn't want to roll with four WRs heading into 2017. But my team was straight trash last year. One fresh-from-the-refrigerator glob of aloe for the sunburn that is my team is the 10th round price on Martavis Bryant. He's a risk, no doubt, but it sounds like he is on the straight and narrow to once again showcase his crazy skills as a receiver opposite Antonio Brown. I'm excited. 

12. Heath

• RB LeVeon Bell
• WR Doug Baldwin
• QB Ben Roethlisberger

I know this seems overly harsh considering that Bell is one of the best three commodities in fantasy football, and Baldwin has produced as a WR1 over the past two seasons. So, uh, yeah, this ranking is all about Ben Roethlisberger. Dude straight balls at home (QB1 in Pittsburgh) and is Sam Bradford on the road (QB23). Should be better with a full season of Bell and Bryant, but I'd rather have Mark Ingram on my squad.

11. Kirk

• QB Aaron Rodgers
• RB Mike Gillislee
• RB Eddie Lacy

Rodgers is a must-keep stud QB, no doubt. But the running backs have serious questions. Is Lacy good? Will he get the bulk of the carries in Seattle? Gillislee is uber-intriguing, but there are five legit RBs in New England, and history shows Belichick is horribly inconsistent in his RB use. Visions of the 18 rushing TDs Blount left in his wake should probably not be swimming in Kirk's head. Perhaps Keenan Allen would've been a better keeper selection than Lacy?

10. Chad

• RB Jay Ajayi
• QB Tom Brady
• WR Emmanuel Sanders
• QB Jared Goff

No complaints with Ajayi and Brady, they're both good starters. And Sanders isn't horrible, but is definitely limited by his QB (to be determined). Carlos Hyde would look pretty good pared with Ajayi, but I can't begrudge Chad too much for wanting to keep a pass catcher. Goff doesn't cost much, but isn't worth anything. He'll be dropped quickly, I'm sure. Knowing that Chad has the #1 overall pick and has basically already agreed to terms with Jacksonville's rookie RB Leonard Fournette gives the group a boost.

9. Rookie

• WR Mike Evans
• RB Lamar Miller
• QB Cam Newton
• WR Tyler Boyd

Evans is a solid WR1, and was positively drool-worthy on episode one of Hard Knocks (even though Doug Martin stole the show with his Apollo amateur night executioner tribute). Miller is an adequate RB. I guess the issue is QB. Why are so many QBs kept? I guess Cam could bounce back to the upper echelon, but I'd rather have, eh, maybe Michael Crabtree?

8. Corey

• RB David Johnson
• WR Allen Robinson
• QB Matt Ryan
• WR Leontee Carroo

I think Corey had the best set of keepers heading into last season, but he is more in the middle of the pack now. That's due to the shine coming off of Robinson (and Blake Bortles) while Ryan is likely to regress a bit from a historical offensive performance. Too bad about the ending of that Super Bowl, eh? That was tough to watch. But let's focus on the positive: David Johnson is giving me LaDainian Tomlinson/Marshall Faulk flashbacks. He's so good he's like having an extra starter every week. That means something. I probably would've kept Nuk Hopkins over Ryan, but everyone knows I hate QBs and I was the worst team in the league last year. So don't listen to me. In fact, stop reading. Just a guess but Carroo doesn't make the squad.

7. Joe

• WR A. J. Green
• RB Jordan Howard
• QB Andrew Luck
• RB Wendell Smallwood

Gotta remember to quit trading with Joe. Granted, shipping A.J. Green off to him two seasons ago helped me make my sole run to the Cup, but now Joe is sitting pretty with one of the best wideouts in the game. Howard was an exceptional midseason pickup turned keeper, and his ceiling seems relatively high considering how well he played on a poor Bears team. Seems like it won't matter that he'll be on another bad Bears team in 2017. And hey, auspicious start for Trubisky last night, right? Luck is, well, concerning. I imagine lots of tossing and turning in the Wompas bed while Heather grows increasingly concerned about hearing "Andrew Luck" escape Joe's sleeping lips. But hey, Luck is just a QB, and those things are always available. Once he has his Luck back (har), Joe will be in the playoff running, just like he always seems to be. Smallwood might be the only non-Martavis redshirt that sticks to his roster in the early going, too.

5. Norris (tie)

• WR Julio Jones
• WR Brandin Cooks
• TE Travis Kelce

Norris has the squad to make his second ever postseason appearance. Top 3 WR? Check. Explosive WR moving from one of the best offenses in the league to one of the best offenses in the league? Check. Premier TE? Check. High draft spot with which to secure a top RB? Check. Four checks, Norris. Don't screw it up.

5. Paul (tie)

• RB Melvin Gordon
• WR T.Y. Hilton
• WR Alshon Jeffrey

Another team with an excellent core. Gordon proves that subpar rookie seasons don't always indicate future performance. Hilton and Jeffrey are a solid WR duo, provided that Jeffrey's hamstrings don't get tweaked by the harsh Philadelphia atmosphere. Plus, he has lots of options at the third pick, after Chad and Norris are finished scooping up high end RB talent. Lots of reason to expect Paul to make a run as his second cup.

4. Ryan

• WR Odell Beckham Jr.
• TE Rob Gronkowski
• QB Drew Brees

So, uh, Ryan might be good at this whole fantasy football thing, eh? He made the playoffs in his first season, and has a set of keepers that could all realistically finish at number one at their position. The only thing missing is a running back. It's kinda scary to think there are three teams with better keepers. Maybe my list is wrong.

3. Kendall

• RB Ezekial Elliott
• WR Michael Thomas
• WR Amari Cooper

Oh joy we get to watch Kendall slide back into the playoffs and make another serious run at his own personal "one for the thumb," a phrase I'm sure he just loves. Zeke fell in his lap last year with the first overall pick, Michael Thomas was freed from the target bondage of Brandin Cooks, and Amari Cooper is straight up good. I guess the potential silver lining for the rest of us is that Michael Crabtree has outproduced Cooper the last two seasons. Nah, that probably won't happen again. We're screwed.

2. Russ

• RB LeSean McCoy
• WR Jordy Nelson
• WR Dez Bryant

Gulp. Like having three top  20 selections in a redraft league, Russ has curated quite a collection of talent. Shady is way good, even at 29 years of age. Nelson has two Top 2 WR seasons the last two complete seasons both he and Rodgers have been healthy--scary. And Dez is a touchdown hog. Coming off his first cup, can Russ pull off the back-to-back championships, something not achieved since Kendall did it in '03 and '04? Yes. Yes he can.

1. Ben

• WR Antonio Brown
• RB Devonta Freeman
• RB Todd Gurley

Ah but Ben stands in his way. His worst keeper is the guy he named his team after. Brown and Freeman are both first round redraft selections. HOO GAVE BEEN TWO FIRST ROUNDERS!? If Gurley rebounds, Ben is a shoe-in for the playoffs. Oh the dreaded Calcutron kiss of death. Seriously, though, nice keepers.

2016 Week 13 CKL Numbers

Ah, the conclusion to yet another CKL regular season. What wonders do the numbers hold? Why further ignominy can they cast upon the feckless and the downtrodden? Let us see. And let us exalt---these things are going away for another 2/3 of a year.

2016 Week 13 CKL All Play

• Patrick has done it. He tops off his best regular season ever with the #1 overall seed and the coveted All Play trophy. Joe made him earn it, though, as he laid the season-high down in Week 13. Impressive stuff, gents.
• Nathan's tumble continued unabated into the cellar of the league. Chad and Nathan, last season's Championship teams, are two tenths of a point away from each other in the misery of the dank, dark, earthy subbasement of shame.
• As previously mentioned, Joe wins the Highest High score. Lowest low goes to Yado. Although still impressively ahead of previous seasons' submissions.
• "I Didn't Inhale" for lowest high goes to Norris. While "Hard to Kill", the highest low, is Joe's.
• Mr. Reliable, with the lowest standard deviation, is Corey's. That seems apt, Corey seems very steady. While Mr. Explosive is Joe. Highest high, highest low, highest range of outcomes. Joe is, to paraphrase several ex-UTS ladies, the total package.

2016 Week 13 Luck

• We tried, but we could not get the silver spoon out of Ryan's ass. We'll have to follow up next season to ensure this was truly a case of beginner's luck. And make no bones about it, Ryan was in the playoffs due to the vagaries of the schedule. That's FF for ya.
• Jenna is probably the single best idea the CKL has ever implemented. Russ suffers horrible luck but because his team is quality and we have the Jenna rule for the sixth seed, he still gets a shot at his first CKL Cup.
• Kirk is the luckiest team that didn't make the playoffs.

2016 Week 13 Hotness

• Joe and Russ look best equipped to make a serious run at the cup. 
• Rookie, eh, not so much.
• After Week 8 I was 4-4, right in the mix. I've gone totally sideways since, with nothing making sense. November 2016 was a suckfest no matter how you slice it.

2016 Week 13 Jenna

• After a one week fling with Joe, Jenna wraps her ankles once more behind Russ' head. And he finishes here off. There's a couple ways we can go with this: 1) Jenna preferred Russ, quickly kicking Joe to the curb. 2) Jenna trusted Russ more but wanted one last fling with Mr. Explosive before settling down. Plus, Joe rocketed up the seeding ranks after...well...seeding Ms. Von Oy. OK, I think that's enough.
• No one else really had a chance, but Corey was probably good enough in most seasons to get closer to sniffer her, er, the playoffs.
• I screwed up this table. So even my mistakes land me at the bottom of tables. Sheesh.

2016 Week 13 Playoff History

• I like this table. I think it's here to stay for seasons to come.
• Patrick was never out of the playoffs---the only one to achieve that feat.
• On the flipside, Kirk was the only one never in. That was mostly due to his poor start, though. He's clearly better than the bottom dung pile of Chathan.

2016 Week 12 CKL Numbers

The penultimate set of numbers for the penultimate week of the 2016 CKL season. Penultimate.

Week 12 CKL All Play

• Patrick is looking good. Only Joe can realistically catch him now. Would be quite an accomplish, and cement this as his far-and-away best season to date.
• Conversely, looks Nathan and Chad head into the final week with the potential to finish in the cellar.
• Parity abounds---Chad has already exceeded the total All-Play wins held by the last place finish in each of the full seasons of the modern, 14 team CKL. We're all more tightly bunched than ever.

Week 12 Hotness

• Patrick is on cruise control right now.
• Ben has been scoring, but he's still not in the playoffs.
• Signs of weakness from Rookie?

Week 12 Luck

• Ryan "Beginners Luck" is hoovering up all the good karma.
• Lots of outliers this year---half the teams in the league are one game better or worse than they should be.
• Unlucky Joe is popping back up. He has nothing to fear so long as he keeps scoring, though.

Week 12 Jenna

• Joe doesn't seem like a sloppy seconds kinda guy, but I guess he wanted to see what all the fuss was about. Hope you have a box of Summer's Eve in your overnight bag, next to the flowers, champagne, and chocolates.
• Russ and Corey REALLY need Joe to creep back into the top five seeds next week.
• Paul and Ben just a bit too far out of range with only one week to go.

Week 12 Playoff History

• Patrick, leading all the good tables, if your new #1 seed.
• Yado with a huge leap into the championship tier.
• Only the second time since Week 4 that Rookie is off the top spot.
• The bottom is so stable. And sad. Definitely sad.

2016 Week 11 CKL Numbers

Not a lot changes when you're moving from one week to the next this last in the season. Hopes are already dashed for some. Cup fever dreams persist for many. That reminds me, I really need to enjoy my time with the Cup while I can.

Week 11 CKL All Play

• Joe replaces Rookie as the co-leader with Patrick.
• Joe's low score of 87.8 is redonk. That's higher than Chad's average. Hard to kill, indeed.
• If Yado's league wide low score of 55.6 last's through Week 13, that would be a massive jump up for that metric in the modern era of the CKL (2011 and on).
• Standard deviations are all rather clumped together, with Paul holding onto "Mr. Steady" and Yado possessing "Mr. Explosive."

Week 11 Hotness

• Kendall is streaking---watch out.
• Nathan and Chad with just a massive CKL Championship hangover. Sucks.
• Doubt anyone in the bottom half of this table makes the playoffs. It's the wrong time of the season to be scoring so few points.

Week 11 Luck

• With Paul's recent cooling off, his brutal luck score is more in line with a general, rather than a historic, bad luck streak.
• With the good luck of Ryan, Rookie, and Kirk land them in the postseason?
• Kendall ain't lucky y'all---the Stink Nightmare is simply back.

Week 11 Jenna

• Does Russ have the stamina to keep her sated?
• Corey is dong-handed, creepily staring in the two inch gap Russ for some unknown reason left in the door. He's ready to get tagged in.
• Chad and I would most certainly settle for some Mayim Bialik at this point.

Week 11 Playoff History

• Not much change here at all, just another side from Ben and Nathan.
• Time is running out on Kirk and Yado ever getting a taste.
• Ryan's been the most "all over the place" (see that standard deviation). Patrick the most steady.
• High average with a low seed---that's a heat seeking missle. Low average with a high seed---that's a world of pain; and Ben is in it.

2016 Week 10 CKL Numbers

This column isn't as fun to put together when you're at the bottom of every table. Oh well. Let's go bowling.

Week 10 CKL All Play

• Obviously could be wrong, but I don't think Patrick has ever been at the top of this table. With Rookie tied with Patrick, and Joe and Russ lurking not far behind, we have the makings of an exciting end of season race for the coveted All Play trophy.
• Last year's Cup finalists are stinking up the bottom of the standings. Rough, eh Chad?
• Kendall and Ryan are an interesting study: both similar total points, std dev, with their floors essentially the same while Ryan's max is a bit better than Kendall's. But Kendall is nine games better in the standings. Guess it matters WHEN you score those points.

Week 10 Hotness

• This is the time of year to score points and earn your playoff spot. No surprise that the top four are in, while Corey is in the mix. 
• Feels like a heavy amount of parity in this list.
• The league average for the last three weeks is 97.9. That seems high to me. Guess it's because I haven't tasted those lofty "heights" since Week 4.
• Kendall's 122.2 is one of the higher three week averages in recent times.

Week 10 Luck

• This beginner's luck bs is not cool, Ryan. Not cool at all.
• Paul getting absolutely brutalized. Gotta hope Jenna is into a good hard luck story.
• Chad, Ben, and I are some weird sort of luck triplets. Feels creepy.

Week 10 Jenna

• After a week off, Russ is back for more.
• All told, SIX of us have held the SIX. Apropos, no?
• Honestly feels like anyone below Ben is done.

Week 10 Playoff History

• Consistency from Rookie.
• One of the largest drops of the season for Paul. That's what happens when Russ slides back in on your woman.
• Patrick and Russ are the only two to have been in the field every week. Only Kirk and Yado have never been in.
• Kendall's long slog out of the doldrums is astounding, if not expected.

2016 Week 9 CKL Numbers

2016 Week 8 CKL Numbers

Ugh, I just can't.