Nathan's Nits - Week 13

Week 13 was the most determinant week of fantasy football I can ever remember. So much was still to be decided. The top three seeds had to be sorted, while the final three had to be resolved. Jenna was to be finally whisked away to the honeymoon suite. Considering the importance of the final week of the regular season, I went over the start/sit decision with a finer tooth comb than usual to attempt to dig out all those deeply embedded nits. What I found was that there were less critical decisions to make than ever. Most everyone knew who to start and who to not. Nevertheless, I scraped a few thoughts together.

Week 13 Start/Sit Thoughts

Paul: I can see not playing Woodhead, but I might run him out there over fumbles-and-he's-benched Vereen or disappointing Spiller. You need upside so Goodwin might be a better play than Wright.

This is called getting it completely wrong. Spiller might be disappointing in general this season, but he still is full of upside every time you roll him out there. I thought Goodwin might be able to use his elite speed to get behind the defense and grab a long score or two, providing more explosiveness than possession receiver Wright.

Performance: Spiller only had his season best performance with 21.7 points, while Woodhead scored 3.5, his lowest output since Week 1. Goodwin put up a goose egg while Wright was his ever solid self with 8.5.

Patrick: Is Palmer over Wilson a match up play? Head scratcher a bit. Ben Tate or Jonathan Stewart (with D-Will inactive) might make a better flex play than running two tight ends out there. Then again, Olsen has had a pretty good year.

This feels quite a bit like Patrick simply didn't check his team on Sunday morning. As for my thought process: Wilson is better than Palmer. Tate or Stewart over Olsen is a harder call. Patrick does have two of the top six tight ends, especially with Orange Julius and Jordan Reed ailing of late. But there is more upside with Tate. Although he had just experienced a seven carries for one yard line against the (maybe no so) hapless Jags.

Performance: Wilson outscored Palmer 29.1 to 20.9. Good game from Palmer, but why go good when you could get great? Tate went for 28.2, Olsen 8.5, and Stewart 4.2. That is how you leave a win on the bench.

Norris: not gonna reward Mendenhall for his touchdown last week? Yeah, I'd bench him for Gio vs. that ridiculously bad San Diego defense, too.

Mendy has been kind of startable the last three weeks. Weird, right? Not sure why I'm focusing on the non-playoff teams so much. Perhaps their decisions are more compelling, since the good teams have relatively easy start/sit decisions, since they're good and all?

Performance: Coin flip. Mendenall had 7.6 on the bench while Gio had 7.4 in the FLEX spot. Doesn't matter when you're dropping triple digits on a playoff team. C'mon, that's kinda satisfying.

Derrick: Randle over Cooper is interesting, but I agree that it's the correct call.

Why did I agree it was the correct call? Oh yeah, because Arizona's defense is good. But Philadelphia's offense is better. In fact, it's the best in the league since Foles took over.

Performance: Randle underacheived (as he does) with 2.0 points, while Cooper wasn't a much better 4.8 on the bench.

Joe: Michael Floyd in the FLEX. STRONG.

I see that you actually make a last minute adjustment to your lineup, Joe. Not sure what you did or what the impact was, but playing Floyd has become a no brainer. Dude is a WR1! You have three of those guys! Could Voodoo be the Cup favorite right this moment? Eh, get through those tough Week 14 match ups and then we'll talk.

Final Regular Season Numbers

All Play Table

• Congratulations to Kendall on completing a season with the best all-play record in the league. He outscored both Russ and Ben in Week 13, while Ben scored the least points of anyone in the league. That's how he slipped to third. It was his worst all-play performance of the season by far. This is the fourth time Kendall has taken home this award, and we've only been tracking it for six. And last year, he was in second by one flipping game. Geez Louise.
• Ben, despite the slip, still takes home the total points/highest average award.
• Kendall's Week 1 explosion of 152.9 points rode the entire season as the highest score of the year.
• Rookie's wins the "I Didn't Inhale" award for lowest high, with a measly 108.9. How appropriate.
• Kendall also wins the "Hard to Kill" award with the highest low score of the season with 74.9. Is "Hard to Kill" a better name for this than "I Only Sleep with 7s or Better"?
• Lowest low? Does this one have a name? That belong to Norris, with a paltry 45.9.
• Mr. Explosion, or perhaps it should be called Mr. Variability, goes to Norris with his 23.26 standard deviation.
• On the flip side, Mr. Reliable is Nathan's. A 14.05 standard deviation means I had the narrowest of possible outcomes week to week, with 10 of my 13 scores falling in the 87.95 to 116.15 point range. I think I actually won a Mr. Reliable award in eighth grade. DON'T TELL MY WIFE HAR HAR.
• While I stole Jenna from Mark, Joe is the one who took his playoff spot, according to the all-play metric.
• Derrick, twelve games clear in the basement.
• The difference between the highest and lowest scoring teams was only 23.4 points per game. Yeah, that sounds like a lot. But there are 14 teams in this league. You're never as good or as bad as you might think you are.

Luck Table

• How is the Blue division so much luckier?
• Kirk, a full two and a half games better than he should be. That's why he's in the conso despite an 8-5 record.
• Kendall, Mr. True Blue (er, Orange).
• Derrick, not only the worst team by all-play, but also the unluckiest. This is your bottom, coming up to meet you. Better days ahead.

Hotness

• Joe blowing up. And Russ in third called him out. 
• The wild card round of the playoffs features the four hottest teams in the league. I like that.
• The bye-earners, though, coasted in. Ben is 11th and Kendall 12th. You can trust they're looking for turnarounds on their squads this week, despite not having a contest.
• Derrick. Damn. Sorry man.
• Paul, so close. You did what you could down the stretch.

Jenna

• Tough to have her all year and yet not get her. Sorry Mark. Not really.
• Take me out of the equation. Assume I pooped my pants in Week 13. Mark would've won this thing over Paul by one tenth of a point. INSANE.