August 18, 2015

My Favorite Pick for Each Team

Not a lot of time this morning, but wanted to float this out there!

TROPHY HUSBAND
I thought the TE-TE double-dip at the 6th/7th turn was a bit strange, but Tyler Eifert was the apple of my eye (along with Ameer Abdullah) in this draft.  I was going to take him at 7.14, but I should have done it at 6.1 instead of taking Markus Wheaton.  Damn it!  I also like the Agholor (aggressively selected at 3.1) and Jonas Gray (13.1) picks.  Phillip Dorsett in the redshirt round was solid gold.



GLITTERFIST LASERSNAKES
Not gonna lie -- I didn't like a lot of what JPA did in this draft.  That being said, the Marcus Mariota pick at 9.2 carries some interesting potential upside.  I don't think it's obscene to imagine a rookie season like the one we saw from RG3 in 2012.



THE HEZBALLERS
Kendall Wright at 5.3 could end up being a pretty big steal, but waiting to be the last to take a QB and then landing Philip Rivers in the 6th round was fairly masterful.  Yado had some trouble early in the draft, but settled in nicely for the 5th round and on.



KICK AZZ GIANTS
As a whole, Derrick had a pretty awesome draft.  However, there is no Odell Beckham Jr. type upside on any of these guys... except for Cole Beasley in the 6th round.  As a Terrance Williams investor, I'm not personally buying into "the next Wes Welker" hype for Beasley, but I can acknowledge the high ceiling when I see it.  Admittedly, a crafty slot guy to work underneath as Dez Bryant pulls coverage deep seems like a formula ripe for success.  Maybe Derrick reached a tad at 6.11, but I like the upside here.

Scroll Beasley

TASTEFUL ONE PIECE
Nathan killed it - just absolutely murdered it - in this draft.  In a galaxy of great picks, I can't turn away from the Starscream brilliance that is A.J. Green at #5 overall.



PACIFIC MANA
Gurley at #6 gives all sorts of warm fuzzies, but my favorite of Ben's picks was Breshad Perriman and all of his downfield explosiveness in the 3rd round.  This is Steve Smith Sr.'s last season, and if Perriman's hands aren't totally gawd-awful, he's the Ratbirds' #1 go-to guy for the forseeable future.  This kid could be a long-term hold for the Moose Mana.



OO PRO
I really can't separate the two, so I'll just list the Lavonte David/DeAndre Levy duo (5.7/6.8) for Chad.  Early IDP picks, but those two will be beastly for the OO Pro.  (Eddie Royal at 9.7 - right after the Kevin White shin surgery news broke - and Derek Carr at 13.7 are also noteworthy picks from a good draft effort by Chad.)



L8 HALF-ORC SORCERERS
It had sort of a "fizzle" feel as it drug along into the later rounds, but Corey's first CKL draft was a god damn good one.  Allen Robinson (3.8) was a great pick, but my favorite was Ameer Abdullah at #8 overall.  He was my guy at #14, so it was a bit heartbreaking for me... but a great pick for Corey.  I'm happy to see Abdullah go to a Lions fan.  (Crystal ball prediction: It's 2018.  Megatron is 32 years old, slowing down, and nursing niggling injuries more often than not.  The Lions offense is still explosive as ever, and built around Ameer Abdullah's special talents.)



THE MAGIC STICK
I honestly loved Russ' entire draft, but the pick that really stands out to me is the one made at 3.9 -- Tony Romo.  The Stick can win the Cup, but only with the right firepower at the QB position, and Russ waited just long enough and got exactly the right guy.  Well done.



BLACKBELT BROWNBEAR
Joe needed WRs badly, and he did a next level double-dip with Kelvin Benjamin and Sammy Watkins.  The coup d'état was Donte Moncrief late in the 9th round.  If Andre Johnson is as old and shitty as I suspect, Moncrief is going to shine this season.



SEXY BADASSES
Kirk sometimes gets judged through a harsh lens, but I think he did a bang-up job filling his gaping void at running back.  David Cobb at 5.11 was the perfect aligning of stars -- a good gamble on rookie talent, and a ghoul against the shitbag running of Bishop Sankey the Christmas Poo.  Nice pick, Kirk.



BLACKPOOL PENGUINS
Jordan Matthews that late in the 1st round (#12 overall)?  Steal.  Plus, Norris is an Eagles fan.  I love that.



BARCLAY STREET BRUISERS
I didn't enjoy draft beside Paul because he pretty much stole my pick in every odd-numbered round.  Brandin Cooks, Chris Ivory, and Khalil Mack were especially painful snipes.  My favorite of Paul's picks, however, was Doug Martin at the beginning of the 2nd round (2.2).  I feel like that pick shredded a lot of the 2nd/3rd round plans laid out by others in the league.  Anything that creates chaos, I enjoy.



PINK NIGHTMARE
I really liked my draft, but nothing jumps off the page as being especially awesome.  I guess Sam Bradford at 8.1 was a pick that felt really good to make.



Great draft, guys!  Best of luck this season!


August 15, 2015

A New Guy's Perspective on the Live Draft

Sup brohams. Thought people might find my "new guy" perspective interesting. This is a much more 'serious' league than any I've played in, so I made an honest effort to be more prepared going into this draft. I might post again in a few days with more New Guy opinion on some other peoples' teams, picks, whatever.

Overall Thoughts
It was long! Bet it's just right in person, though. Just long when you're sitting at a computer for 4 hours. Really liked the format. It was cool bantering with Patrick and Russell online. I like those guys.


Draft Strategy
I came in looking to have no more than about 5 "old guys," even if they were safe bets. I wanted to go young. I always go old in my other league, and I'm terrible. So going heavy after youngsters was my attempt at changing my usual M.O. I think I ended up with 5 rookies, 5 old guys, and the rest in between. Of my 4 RBs, 3 are rookies... That might bite me in the ass, I don't know. I kind of think I should have drafted one less WR, and one more RB.

My Spreadsheet
I watch football every week, but I'm pretty insular to the NFC North. It's just geography; I'm a Lions fan, everyone I know roots for the Bears, Vikings, or Pack. So I can't go in blind. I built my spreadsheet from looking at 3 different sources: ESPN, SI, and fantasypros. I tried others, but those 3 worked fine to build a base value. Then I add my own opinion to players I know about. Bonus points for being a Lion, a rookie, or getting a lot of offseason hype. Wherever I could gather data. Then I'd paste over picks from the CKL spreadsheet as they happened, my spreadsheet pulls those players out from the results, and I have a list of guys to consider. Worked pretty slick, and I got much better results than I ever get with my ESPN-only lists I've used in my other league. I could tell I was valuing players a little different from others, because I'd be eyeballing a player 5+ picks out ahead of my pick, and more often than not he'd still be there for me. This might actually mean I did a terrible job. Looking forward to finding out!

Keepers
Matthew Stafford, DeAndre Hopkins, Eddie Lacy, Teddy Bridgewater. I know I should have kept Alfred Morris instead of Stafford, but god damn it was nice to completely stay out of the QB fray.

My Picks
Rd1 Ameer Abdullah - My initial target here was Brandin Cooks, but after watching Ameer in the preseason I knew I couldn't get him in round 2. Pulled the trigger on a player that I am personally very excited about.
Rd2 Julian Edelman - A pretty safe option, but I don't know if I'm going to start him when Garopollo is under center.
R3 Allen Robinson - Really excited about this guy. I think Bortles could be really good, and this guy could be his #1 target. I could be wrong, I just think it might happen.
R4 Jordan Cameron - yeah, I think I went TE one or two rounds too early. Like the player, overpaid.
R5 Anquan Boldin - okay. Torn on this one. Good player, think it was the right value. But I hate the 49ers. I think he'll be good for me in case of injury/bye weeks, I'm just not excited about him.
R6 David Johnson and R7 Dorial Green-Beckham - can say the same thing for both of these guys - rookies that I've never actually watched, drafted on potential. I expect them to have few touches to start off the season, but maybe they'll be doing something by the time I need bye substitutions. I think Johnson is nursing a minor injury.
R8 Posluszny and R9 Laurinaitis - I wanted to draft the two MLBs with the hardest God damn names to spell. Mission accomplished. But yeah, I expect both of these guys to lead their teams in tackles, seems good. Kendall suggested not drafting defense until round 10, but who else was I going to draft? Jerick McKinnon and Donte Moncrief!? Neither of those are bad choices, I just didn't want to be the guy dipping into safeties for IDP.
R10 Doug Baldwin - of all my picks, I regret this one the most. I was caught with my pants down, here, had been interacting with family and didn't see my pick coming up. I think the value is fine, it's just one more WR than I needed. Should have gambled on McFadden or Polk (totally admit I didn't know who he was before seeing him get picked).
R11 Jay Ajayi - I feel like potential is there... But will be surprised if he starts in Miami. This season, anyway. But it's round 11, I needed a running back, and he's a rookie. What are you going to do.
R12 Matt Prater - Homer pick. But also he's quite good.
R13 Stephen Tulloch - and my last DP. Would have rather had Dre Levy, but he went SO early. Also Tulloch is our MLB, will probably lead the team in tackles. Homer pick.
(no R14 because I redshirted Bridgewater)
R15 Tyler Lockett - I don't know strategy here, would love to hear other opinion on how to work the redshirt round. I wanted a rookie. Already had two QBs and 3 other rookie RBs. Had to go WR or TE. I figure WR is a better keeper, if it comes to that. My spreadsheet was telling me Devin Smith, Tyler Lockett, or Chris Conley. Lockett is the only name I'd heard since the draft, so there you go.

What I’d Do Differently
Better system for DPs (I was just looking at ESPN order, no spreadsheet)

Wish I’d put Bye Week info into my spreadsheet (I’m gonna be in trouble in Week 9).


So that's my team. Minimal regrets, but I recognize that the roster as a whole is a big gamble. If just one of my rookie RBs turns out decent, though(Abdullah!), I think I'll be fine.