August 15, 2015

A New Guy's Perspective on the Live Draft

Sup brohams. Thought people might find my "new guy" perspective interesting. This is a much more 'serious' league than any I've played in, so I made an honest effort to be more prepared going into this draft. I might post again in a few days with more New Guy opinion on some other peoples' teams, picks, whatever.

Overall Thoughts
It was long! Bet it's just right in person, though. Just long when you're sitting at a computer for 4 hours. Really liked the format. It was cool bantering with Patrick and Russell online. I like those guys.


Draft Strategy
I came in looking to have no more than about 5 "old guys," even if they were safe bets. I wanted to go young. I always go old in my other league, and I'm terrible. So going heavy after youngsters was my attempt at changing my usual M.O. I think I ended up with 5 rookies, 5 old guys, and the rest in between. Of my 4 RBs, 3 are rookies... That might bite me in the ass, I don't know. I kind of think I should have drafted one less WR, and one more RB.

My Spreadsheet
I watch football every week, but I'm pretty insular to the NFC North. It's just geography; I'm a Lions fan, everyone I know roots for the Bears, Vikings, or Pack. So I can't go in blind. I built my spreadsheet from looking at 3 different sources: ESPN, SI, and fantasypros. I tried others, but those 3 worked fine to build a base value. Then I add my own opinion to players I know about. Bonus points for being a Lion, a rookie, or getting a lot of offseason hype. Wherever I could gather data. Then I'd paste over picks from the CKL spreadsheet as they happened, my spreadsheet pulls those players out from the results, and I have a list of guys to consider. Worked pretty slick, and I got much better results than I ever get with my ESPN-only lists I've used in my other league. I could tell I was valuing players a little different from others, because I'd be eyeballing a player 5+ picks out ahead of my pick, and more often than not he'd still be there for me. This might actually mean I did a terrible job. Looking forward to finding out!

Keepers
Matthew Stafford, DeAndre Hopkins, Eddie Lacy, Teddy Bridgewater. I know I should have kept Alfred Morris instead of Stafford, but god damn it was nice to completely stay out of the QB fray.

My Picks
Rd1 Ameer Abdullah - My initial target here was Brandin Cooks, but after watching Ameer in the preseason I knew I couldn't get him in round 2. Pulled the trigger on a player that I am personally very excited about.
Rd2 Julian Edelman - A pretty safe option, but I don't know if I'm going to start him when Garopollo is under center.
R3 Allen Robinson - Really excited about this guy. I think Bortles could be really good, and this guy could be his #1 target. I could be wrong, I just think it might happen.
R4 Jordan Cameron - yeah, I think I went TE one or two rounds too early. Like the player, overpaid.
R5 Anquan Boldin - okay. Torn on this one. Good player, think it was the right value. But I hate the 49ers. I think he'll be good for me in case of injury/bye weeks, I'm just not excited about him.
R6 David Johnson and R7 Dorial Green-Beckham - can say the same thing for both of these guys - rookies that I've never actually watched, drafted on potential. I expect them to have few touches to start off the season, but maybe they'll be doing something by the time I need bye substitutions. I think Johnson is nursing a minor injury.
R8 Posluszny and R9 Laurinaitis - I wanted to draft the two MLBs with the hardest God damn names to spell. Mission accomplished. But yeah, I expect both of these guys to lead their teams in tackles, seems good. Kendall suggested not drafting defense until round 10, but who else was I going to draft? Jerick McKinnon and Donte Moncrief!? Neither of those are bad choices, I just didn't want to be the guy dipping into safeties for IDP.
R10 Doug Baldwin - of all my picks, I regret this one the most. I was caught with my pants down, here, had been interacting with family and didn't see my pick coming up. I think the value is fine, it's just one more WR than I needed. Should have gambled on McFadden or Polk (totally admit I didn't know who he was before seeing him get picked).
R11 Jay Ajayi - I feel like potential is there... But will be surprised if he starts in Miami. This season, anyway. But it's round 11, I needed a running back, and he's a rookie. What are you going to do.
R12 Matt Prater - Homer pick. But also he's quite good.
R13 Stephen Tulloch - and my last DP. Would have rather had Dre Levy, but he went SO early. Also Tulloch is our MLB, will probably lead the team in tackles. Homer pick.
(no R14 because I redshirted Bridgewater)
R15 Tyler Lockett - I don't know strategy here, would love to hear other opinion on how to work the redshirt round. I wanted a rookie. Already had two QBs and 3 other rookie RBs. Had to go WR or TE. I figure WR is a better keeper, if it comes to that. My spreadsheet was telling me Devin Smith, Tyler Lockett, or Chris Conley. Lockett is the only name I'd heard since the draft, so there you go.

What I’d Do Differently
Better system for DPs (I was just looking at ESPN order, no spreadsheet)

Wish I’d put Bye Week info into my spreadsheet (I’m gonna be in trouble in Week 9).


So that's my team. Minimal regrets, but I recognize that the roster as a whole is a big gamble. If just one of my rookie RBs turns out decent, though(Abdullah!), I think I'll be fine.

2 comments:

  1. Nice write up. Corey. I consider the first blog post at A/D/T/K/D the unofficial start to the CKL season. You handled your first draft well. And there is nothing wrong with wearing your homer glasses---this game is supposed to be fun! Heck, I always end up with a Bronco or seven on my squad.

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