2018 Week 4

It's the biggest theme in the NFL and CKL this season: scoring and offense is up. In the CKL's case, it's WAY up. Let's look back at the scoring averages through the first four weeks of the modern CKL (2011+).

We've never see the kind of jump in scoring from one year to the next like we're seeing between 2017 and 2018. Granted, 2017 was a down year, the lowest average scoring season of the modern CKL era. But if you average all the seasons from 2011 to 2017, and then compare that to 2018's output, you still get an 8.45% increase. That's bigger than any season over season jump we've seen.

So what's the explanation? I think there are at least three concrete reasons scoring is up:

1. After a down offensive season in 2017, the NFL is seeing offensive output like never before. Specifially, there is a spike in passing offense, as there are more touchdown passes through Week 4 than of any other NFL season. Ever.
2. The NFL has never had a better group of QBs than right now. I realize that's a heavily subjective statement, but look back to '88, '98, and '08 and tell me any of those groups are better than the bevy of passer talents currently in the league. Was Bobby Hebert (the 11th rated QB in 1998) better than Cam Newton (11th in 2018)? Would you rather have Neil O'Donnell (6th/'98) or Philip Rivers (6th/'18)? Chad Pennington (2nd/'08) or Patrick Mahomes (2nd/'18)? Yes, I'm cherry picking a bit, but overall, the league's passers are better now than in previous eras. There are any number of reasons for that, from college preparation, the current passer-friendly NFL rulebook, heck, maybe even high school/Pee Wee development. The astounding part of 2018 passers isn't necessarily the top, either. It's the depth. Aaron Rodgers is currently the 13th rated QB. Matthew Stafford is 20th. There are legit, long-term starters 20+ deep. That isn't usually the case in the NFL.
3. CKL rule changes have allowed for more scoring. We juiced sacks and added a position at HC. When you add those factors to the NFL scoring bonanza currently ongoing, it makes sense that scoring is up in the CKL, bigly.

Is this the new normal? My guess is, yes. You need to be pushing 110+ if want a legit shot to win week to week. Already this season we've had losing scores of 119.0, 118.3, 115.9, 114.6 and 104.8. Those are almost surefire wins in previous iterations of the CKL.

Non-Core Scoring

Something I've wanted to look at since we added IDPs/DPs to the league was just how much an advantage they can prove to be for one coach over another. I never took the time to set up an easy, quick method to track this data. Until now. I'm not sure exactly how I want to present this information, so I'll start this week with a couple of tables. If you'd like other bits of information, let me know.

Non-Core Points/Rank

• This table shows each team's total amount of points scored by their DPs, Ks, and HCs through Week 4. It's sorted from highest to lowest total.
• Ryan is getting the most from his non QB/RB/WR/TE group, and that's one of the reasons his odds to repeat as CKL Champion is rising weekly.
• We all know Heath's struggles, particularly with submitting a full lineup. This table bears that out, as he is 24.7 points behind the next lowest team.
• On average, a CKL team is getting 32.3 points from their non-core group. Ryan is getting 39.1, while Heath is getting 21.4. So there are your targets and ranges, folks.

DP Points/Rank

• This table removes the Ks and HCs and shows only the DPs. I'm not saying there isn't a strategy to your weekly K and HC decision, but I think the DPs are, at least slightly, more interesting.
• Kirk, new owner of The Big Stack, is showing us all how it's done. Somewhat surprisingly, he's doing it on the back of mostly tackle compilers, not sack artists. Darius Leonard has been a revelation for him, although his doughnut in Week 5 hurts.
• Heath beats Yado here. Interesting. I guess.
• To give you a sense of the weekly averages/ranges, the league average is 20.3 points, with Kirk at 26.0 and Yado at 15.0. Some juice to squeeze there, but not much.

A couple of other quick hits without a chart:

• Joe is getting the most points from the kicker position; Heath the least (ouch).
• Norris is getting the most from the head coach (nice $5 on Andy Reid); Corey the least (Jets and Bills combo, barf).

The Week 4 Numbers

All Play Table

• He might only have one win but Kirk is the best team in the league. Kirk. KIRK!
• Sizable gap (five games) between the top five and bottom nine. Us shitkickers need to hope Kirk keeps winning so Jenna becomes available.
• Another big gap (six games) between Corey and Nathan. I think that makes sense: the top five are clear playoff teams, the next five are in the conversation, and the bottom four need a rapid, noticeable turnaround or else their eyes will quickly turn to 2019.
• Kirk takes The Big Stack in Week 4; Heath still holds Lame.
• Due to a few stat corrections back in Week 3, Yado joins Kendall as the only two teams not to score less than triple digits.
• There are four (FOUR!) teams averaging 114.4 points per week or better. Insanity.
• Russ is the most stable scoring team, but that doesn't say much when you're buried at 4-48 (a 7.7% winning percentage). Much like last week, only Corey's worse 4-48 start from last season is keeping Russ out of the record books. Most year's everyone has at least ten All-Play wins through four weeks. 
• Heath is conversely the most explosive, but that's only because he has such a strong Week 1 followed by three subpar efforts.

Hotness

• The first true heat check of the season, this is the first week the trending average is different than the overall league average.
• Paul is on fire, and as we've discussed previously, Heath is ice cold.
• Nine of the league's 14 teams are averaging triple digits since Week 2. New normal, indeed.

Luck

• Crazy that Kirk went out and scored The Big Stack, yet is still two games unlucky. Actually, that's precisely the point. When you outscore every team in the league in a week, you win every possible match up. So his luck hasn't changed. Truly one of the weirder starts to the season in recent memory.
• Joe, Paul, and Kendall are with Kirk in the group that is more than one game plus or minus in luck. These are quality teams, no doubt, but as I've said before and will say again, schedule matters.
• Heath, look at you---true blue. A one win team if we've ever seen one.
• And Russ. Poor Russ. So bad he's only "earned" a third of a win this season. Not even, really.

Jenna

• Kirk straight slaying.
• Surprising no one, Ben is looking to slide in if/when Kirk makes it to the top five.
• Everyone else is multiple weeks away from contending. It's Week 5 and it's already to the point where I have rooting interests in every single CKL game going forward. Personally, I think that makes things more interesting.

Seed Story

• Not a ton of movement this week. Ben slides out of the 'offs, Ryan in, and no other movement beyond a seed up or down.
• Kendall, Joe, and Yado continue their high class lifestyle. They haven't spent even a week this season down here with the plebs.
• Rookie, Nathan, Chad, and Russ still haven't tasted that sweet playoff feeling. Can you taste a feeling?
• Week 1 Heath, we barely knew ye.

Yep, this is what I did with my Sunday morning. You're welcome.