Goal: Eight Wins
Eight wins, y'all. You finish 8-5 or better during the regular season, and you're in the playoffs. Well, you damn well should be. Only once in the last seven seasons (a/k/a the "modern era" of the Cavalier Keeper League) has a team failed to make the Championship playoffs with eight or more wins (sorry, Kirk 2013).
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| 2018 Week 7 Seed History |
Kendall, Yado, Joe, Ben, Ryan, and Kirk (with Ms. Jenna) represent the current playoff field. How often do teams that are in the playoffs after week 7 move on to the Championship playoffs at the end of the regular season? To put a number on it (and to avoid showing you a lot of boring work), 76.2% of the time. In the past seven seasons, 32 of the 42 teams seeded one through six after seven weeks end up in the dance. The flip side of that number is that ten teams disappointed down the stretch and didn't make it. How should we start our exploration of that interesting 23.8%? Start sad and end happy? Works for me.
These Violent Delights Have Violent Ends
I'm going to attempt to list those teams that have under-performed in the second half of the season in order of least to most painful. Half of the teams that didn't make it in were riding Jenna after seven weeks and couldn't maintain their performance. Those teams are: Joe 2011, Kirk 2012, Mark 2013, Paul 2015, and Kendall 2017. That's kinda sad, but is actually part and parcel of having the Six rule to begin with---it allows a wild card team to make the playoff field that didn't have the required schedule "luck" to gets the wins needed to make it as part of the top five. It's perfectly natural, and therefore acceptable, that the wild card position is going to have a high degree of volatility throughout the season.
With half of the "painful ten" systematically dispatched, let's dive a bit deeper into the more harrowing half:
- Kirk - 2015: After seven weeks of the 2015 season, Kirk sat at 4-3, third in All-Play record, and the fifth seed in the playoffs. He was sixth in the Hotness table, scoring 100.7 points per game from weeks five to seven. He finished the season 7-6, going 3-3 down the final six game stretch, including a three game winning streak from weeks nine through 11 where he averaged 109.8 points per game, good for third in the league. So how did he miss the playoffs? Chad and Rookie. Chad scored the most points in the league for the season but matched Kirk's 7-6 record, so Jenna sacked up with Mr. Proctor. And Rookie, despite only scoring the seventh most points in the league, finished 8-5 and took the fifth seed. Kirk was on the outside looking in as the seventh seed. His grief/anger carried over into the Conso, where he lost his first two contests before dominating Russ in the 13th place game. Sadly, had he made it to the Championship bracket, there was a path for him to take the Cup. Ouch.
- Paul - 2013: Paul was sitting pretty at 5-2, including a five game winning streak from weeks two to six. Somewhat surprisingly, this record was only good enough for the four seed, as Kendall and Russ were both 6-1, while Ben was also 5-2 but with more total points. Paul's Barclay Street Bruisers, owners of one of the premier, all-time avatars, were third in All-Play record. All signs indicated a run to the playoffs. Unfortunately, the team went 2-4 down the stretch resulting in the ninth seed---firmly in the Conso.
- Ben - 2016: Ben's fall from the 'offs two season ago was more of a luck correction than anything else. Through seven games he was tied for third in the league with a positive luck score. His third seed wasn't unmerited, though, as he was a healthy tied-fifth in the All-Play table. The Gurley Men went on a four game losing streak from weeks eight to 11, before righting the ship with two wins to end the regular season. As is commonly the case in the CKL, 7-6 isn't quite enough to make the Championship bracket. Ben lost out on Jenna to Russ, and would've also lost to record-mate Corey. Ben was in the playoff field the first eight weeks of the season, but never again.
- Rookie - 2014: Another three seed that free fell into the Conso, Rookie's bizarre deviation into weird name space "Sex Panther" squad was 5-2, third in All-Play record, fifth in Luck score, and a meh eight in Hotness. As we've seen with Paul above, a 2-4 finish doomed Rookie to a 7-6 final record and a sloppy, well attended competition for Jenna's last ride. Norris got her over Rookie (seems imminently reasonable, actually). Looking over his schedule that year, Rook's team was never that good, but also never really bad. That goes a long way in the CKL. Just not long enough.
- Chad - 2017: The pain of this fall is compounded by it's recency and the fact that it's totally unprecedented. This time last year, Chad was fourth in All-Play record, second in luck, 6-1, and the number one overall seed. So, uh, what happened? A mind-boggling, odds-defying six game winning streak followed by a six game losing streak. Chad didn't break triple digits after week six, and lost his two ventures into 90 point territory during the losing streak. His season ended ignominiously with two losses in three tries in the Conso, resulting in a 12th place finish for the one-time first place squad. Painful. Thankfully, we're unlikely to ever see it's match. Chad still seems at least a bit hungover, if not downright snake-bit. He's 3-4, respectable enough, but is last in the league in total points.
Phew---glad that's over with. Let's flip the coin and talk about the ten teams that strived valiantly, scratched, clawed, and did whatever the hell they needed to do to make the playoffs after underperforming in the first half of the season.
The Basis of Optimism is Sheer Terror
- Chad - 2012: There wasn't anything wrong with the 4-3 start to Chad's 2012 season, but a 5-1 finish put him over the hump and into the playoffs. Nothing special here, though, as he fell to Kendall in Round 1. At least this helps remove the bad taste in his mouth from the end of the previous list. Right, Chad?
- Rookie - 2015: Rookie turned the post-Week 7 eight seed into the five seed in the playoffs. Much like Chad 2012, Rookie finished the season with a 5-1 record over his final six games, and much like Chad, he lost in Round 1. But to Chad, not Kendall.
- Rookie - 2017: Hey, another Rookie postseason push. And it's not an unfamiliar story: 4-3 start to the season, 4-2 finish, and a rise from seed eight to five. Guess what? He lost in Round 1...this time to Russ.
- Russ - 2017: Hey, whaddya know, we were just talking about Russ 2017. But his playoff push was an actual turnaround, not Rookie's continuation of "good enough" play. Russ started 2-5, finished winning five of the final six, then took down Rookie before losing to Norris in Round 2.
- Alan - 2011: In the first season of the expanded 14-team CKL, Alan ascended from the mid-season eighth seed to the postseason third seed. It wasn't all that exceptional though, with a 4-3 start yielding to a 4-2 finish. What was particuarly impressive was his rise to and through the playoffs, where he destroyed Mark and defeated Kirk before falling to Kendall in the Championship contest.
- Joe - 2013: Joe's then-Voodoo Brown got off to a 3-4 start that included a three game losing skid from weeks two to four. Brown only lost once more the rest of the regular season (to a mediocre THUNDER BEAR team), moving five spots from ten to five in the process. His first round playoff contest against Russ is one for the ages. I'm pretty sure it was the highest total scoring game in CKL history. After losing that epic showdown, Joe got revenge for his sole second half loss by pummeling THUNDER BEAR for two consecutive weeks.
- Kendall - 2016: When Kendall isn't front-running for the playoffs, he's making inspired pushes to overcome slow starts and get his ass in the dance. Case in point two seasons ago, in which a lackluster Nightmare team was the 12th seed after seven weeks. A 2-5 first half led to seven consecutive victores, including a first round playoff win over Ryan. Joe eeked out a win over Pinkie in round two, ending Kendall's climb. The nine-seed jump from 12 to three is as impressive as any on this list.
- Derrick - 2015: Derrick's final CKL campaign matched Kendall's 2016 in the 12 to three jump. The similarities to Kendall's 2016 abound, in fact, as the CKL-founding Kick Azz Giants started 2-5, then rattled off seven straight victories. Chad ended the run in Round 2 of the playoffs, but it was an epic run deserving of an epitaph. Perhaps Derrick lost too much of his CKL heart in the chase?
- Kendall - 2014: Again, it should come as no surprise that Kendall is making these crazy late season pushes. The absolute movement isn't as strong as his previous entry or Derrick's, but it's still a worthwhile tale. Pink started 3-4, good for tenth in the league at that time. He won the remainder of his regular season games, save a Week 12 loss to Russ. K did additional damage as the third seed in the playoffs, taking down Joe and Norris before losing the Championship to Paul by six tenths of a point.
- Chad - 2013: The story that gives hope to the eight of us currently outside the playoff field is Chad's run to the Cup a half-decade ago. His squad was never bad, sitting at 4-3 after seven games as the league's seventh seed (pay attention, Paul, our current seventh seed). He lost in Week 8 to Russ and Week 12 to Kirk, and that was it the rest of the year. He nailed my THUNDER BEAR team in Week 13 of the regular season and then again in Round 1 of the playoffs. That still stings. He then dispatched Ben and Kendall to take home the hardware.
Note that at least one member, and at most two, of the post-Week 7 playoff field was replaced over the course of each of the past seven CKL campaigns. So at least one of those six owners currently in the field is on notice---and historically, it could be two. There isn't a solid precedent of making a mid-season outsider run to the playoffs and/or Cup, but it has, and can, be done.
So who is going to stay in, who is going to get in, and who is going to fall out? Hell, I don't know, but let's get some guidance from All-Play based remaining strength of schedule. Here is a list sorted from easiest to hardest, based on the collective All-Play record of each team's remaining schedule.
So who is going to stay in, who is going to get in, and who is going to fall out? Hell, I don't know, but let's get some guidance from All-Play based remaining strength of schedule. Here is a list sorted from easiest to hardest, based on the collective All-Play record of each team's remaining schedule.
It would be hard for Rookie or Russ to make a run, but Norris is in seemingly pretty decent shape to dominant some opponents, gets some Ws, and chase that Cup dream, once again. Ryan has better positioning than Nathan since he's currently in, but neither have an easy path forward.
Now go do it.
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The Numbers
All-Play Table
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| 2018 Week 7 All-Play Table |
- I didn't post a column last week, but this marks Ben's second straight week at the top, as he overtook Yado after Week 5. As will become painfully obvious throughout this column, Ben's Gurley Men are the best team in the league and still have the potential to do much more.
- As always, Kendall can be found near the top of this table.
- Kirk still hangs on to highest high; Heath to lowest low; Kendall to highest low, while Russ has lowest high.
- Ten of the league's 14 teams average triple digits. God Bless NFL offenses and CKL scoring updates.
- Joe is Mr. Consistent with the lowest standard deviation. It's a good look with him sitting sixth on the table; conversely Chad is Mr. Explosive, although Kirk and Heath are giving him a run for his money. OO DADDY has two 110+ point performances and four sub-88 whimpers. That's manic af.
- Russ' last few weeks (averaging 104.7 per game over the last three with a 2-1 record) have him out of the historically horrendous danger zone.
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| Why not, right? |
Luck Table
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| 2018 Week 7 Luck Score |
- I gotta say, some of these numbers are huge considering we're only seven weeks in. It made me curious, seeing big absolute numbers from Kirk, Kendall, Rookie, and Joe, so I did some digging. In the eight years of the modern CKL era, this represents the highest absolute value of Luck Scores through Week 7. 17.54 is the number I'm talking about, and the next closest is 2014's 13.85. On average, the absolute value score of this table after Week 7 of the previous seven seasons is 11.16. So what does that mean? Schedule is mattering more this season than ever before. I'm not saying Kendall, Joe, and Yado aren't good. Or that Corey, Heath, and Rookie aren't bad. But Kirk, guys. Kirk has a good team. And it's rare to have so many extreme teams at one time. A full half of the league has either six or more wins or one or less victories. That's...kinda crazy.
- I mentioned this in the Smack Board for the Rookie/Kirk contest, but it's undoubtedly the highest overall negative luck score in a CKL contest, ever, with -5.69. The most it could've possibly been in the previous seven seasons' first seven weeks is -4.31. Poor guys.
- Paul, enjoy your sanity.
- I think Kirk is going for the record.
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| Fun? Maybe? |
Hotness
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| 2018 Week 7 Hotness |
- Ben...sheesh. Good luck everyone else.
- Only two teams average under 100 points the last three weeks. We're exploding.
- Which makes Corey's number even more disappointing.
- Look at how close that pack from Heath to Chad is. Seven teams, a full half of the league, within 1.8 points on average the last three weeks. CKL margins be thin.
Jenna
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| 2018 Week 7 Jenna |
- Kirk still has her. Dude might be unlucky but he's got some game.
- Paul creeping in.
- The average weekly difference between the highest and lowest score each week is 62.6 points. So, at best, Norris and Rookie are more than a week away from Kirk. The bottom quartet is more like three weeks from possibly catching Kirk. Time is running out.
Seed History
- I already put the Seed History chart at the top of this column, so I though I'd add a chart showing seed history visually. Yeah, it's a bit of a mess, but I still think it's interesting.
- Most of the significant movement happened in the first three weeks, which makes sense. Things are still sorting out in the early part of the season.
- Can Russ' recent upward trend continue?
See that CHASM OF SUFFERING!? The top and bottom halves of the league haven't mingled since Week 3. For those of us on the bottom half of the chart, we need to have that change, ASAP.
Positional Points
A few random notes about how scoring is distributed across the starting positions in the league to date.
Yado's Impossible WR Edge
LOOK AT THIS NONSENSE. This is the total points from the two WR positions and does not include any WRs in the FLEX spot. Davante Adams and Adam Thielen are the dopest of duos.
Other Positional Leaders
- Ben has both the leading score at QB (Patrick Mahomes) and RB (Todd Gurley III). He's also the worst at TE and FLEX. Like...WHAT!? His QB and RB are so good it makes up for his TE and FLEX being the worst. Imagine if he got league average production from those spots. I'm delirious.
- Speaking of TE, Norris leads at that position thanks to Travis Kelce. But damn is the position a total s-show.
- Yado leads at FLEX and overall leads the league in scoring from his core (QB/RB/WR/WR/TE/FLEX). It just so happens he also gets the league worst from his "non-core" positions of DPs/K/HC. No surprise then that Yado gets the highest percentage of his overall points from his core (76.82%). Strange brew, man. FYI, Chad gets the lowest percentage from his core (62.29%).
- Ben is the best at DPs, Kendall at K, and Nathan at HC (thanks Sean McVay).
- Worst positions not yet mentioned: Chad (QB); Russ (RB); Rookie (WR1); Corey (WR2); Yado (DPs); Heath (K); Corey (HC).
- Kendall has the best average rank of his position finishers with 5.9. Makes sense as his is one of the best teams in the league and doesn't have the extreme variability from position to position that Ben sports.
- The worst average rank by position is Russ with 9.8, but Heath (9.7) and Chad (9.6) aren't far behind.
- This might be something only I would notice, but most teams treat the DP positions like a depth chart. They get the most points from their top DP position (DP1, if you will), the second most from DP2, and least from DP3. This holds true with everyone except Kirk, who goes the exact opposite. I don't know if Kirk is doing that on purpose (or even if it's possible), but...uh...there you go.
And with that, I'm out...
Nathan, this is your best work ever. Bravo.
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