Week 13 -- What's at stake?

Our standings entering the week 13 games:

1 Kendall -- 11-1 / 1362 points scored

2 Ben -- 9-3 / 1400

3 Yado -- 9-3 / 1321

4 Joe -- 9-3 / 1294

5 Chad -- 7-5 / 1162

6 Paul -- 6-6 / 1263

7 Ryan -- 6-6 / 1232

8 Nathan -- 6-6 / 1223

9 Norris -- 6-6 / 1212

10 Rookie -- 5-7 / 1318

11 Russ -- 4-8 / 1137

12 Kirk -- 3-9 / 1286

13 Heath -- 2-10 / 1075

14 Corey -- 1-11 / 1111 (all ones!)

Jenna (excluding the four playoff locks):

Rookie -- 1318

Kirk -- 1286 (32 points behind)

Paul -- 1263 (55 points behind)

Ryan -- 1232 (86 points behind)

Nathan -- 1223 (95 points behind)

Norris -- 1212 (106 points behind)

Chad -- 1162 (156 points behind)

Russ -- 1137 (181 points behind)

Corey -- 1111 (207 points behind)

Heath -- 1075 (243 points behind)

So Jenna is REALISTICALLY going to end up with either Rookie or Kirk, with Paul the absolute darkest of darkhorse suitors.

Meanwhile, for the race for the #5 seed, Nathan summarized it best on the message board this week:

WEEK 13 DRAMA

Well, not exactly drama, with the top four seeds locked in, and Rookie having a comfortable lead for Jenna.

But the fifth seed...phew!

The way I'm reading it, any of Chad, Ryan, Norris, Paul and Nathan are still in it.

First, if Chad wins, he's in. But he has to play Kendall's juggernaut squad. If he loses, he's almost certainly out as the lowest scoring team of the quintet.

If Chad loses, the highest season points scorer of any of the other four that wins their Week 13 game will get in.

Norris and Nathan are playing each other, with the loser out.

Ryan gets a desperate Kirk team that is trying to score as many points as possible to try to win Jenna back.

And Paul gets Russ.

Legitimately any of these five can still make the playoffs. I'd give Chad a slight edge since he controls his own destiny, but Paul is looking strong too, with the highest total points scored of the group and probably the "on paper" easiest matchup of Week 13.

Gonna be a good final week of the regular season.

~~~

Finally, the other important thing happening this weekend is the fight for the #2 seed and the other first round bye in the playoffs. That goes to either Ben, Yado, or Joe.

Ben's got the layup of Heath, while Joe and Yado are head-to-head. If Ben beats Heath, he's got #2, while the winner of Joe/Yado has to hope for a Ben loss... but more likely will need to be content with the #3 seed and the right and privilege of calling out his first round opponent!

It's going to be a fun weekend. Best of luck to everyone.

In closing, a reminder about the draft lottery system (new for 2018-19!)

Playoff teams are awarded the following picks in the upcoming draft:

1st place (CKL Cup Winner!) -- #13 overall pick

2nd place -- #14 overall pick

3rd place -- #11 overall pick

4th place -- #12 overall pick

5th place -- #9 overall pick

6th place -- #10 overall pick

The winner of the consolation tournament GETS THE #1 OVERALL PICK, along with the power to decide the keeper declaration order.

The other seven teams that do not win the conso tourney bounce with the ping pong balls in the draft lottery, as such:

#7 -- conso tourney winner, game I winner, 3 wins, #1 overall pick

8 -- I loser, 2 wins, 5 balls, 20% chance for the #2 pick

9 -- J winner, 2 wins, 5 balls, 20% chance for the #2 pick

10 -- J loser, 1 win, 3 balls, 12% chance for the #2 pick

11 -- K winner, 2 wins, 5 balls, 20% chance for the #2 pick

12 -- K loser, 1 win, 3 balls, 12% chance for the #2 pick

13 -- G winner, 1 win,  3 balls, 12% chance for the #2 pick

14 -- G loser, 0 wins, 1 pity ball, 4% chance for the #2 pick

Obviously, it behooves you to win as many games as possible if you fail to make the playoffs and are relegated to the conso tourney. Good luck! It's a mess.

If you have any questions about any of this, let me know!

Again, best of luck to everyone this weekend!

Love,

K

2018 Week 9

The Week 9 to Week 10 transition seems like a perfect time to look at the playoff picture. But with the massive gulf between the haves and have-nots this season, I think I'll punt that topic for at least another week. Instead, let's look back.

A bit over four years ago, I took a look at each franchise's last 5/10/25/50/100 regular season games. Let's do it again. Fortuitously, it's now been exactly 100 regular season contests during the modern era of the CKL. These numbers will take us back to the beginning of the 2011 CKL season, when the league officially expanded from 12 to 14 teams, and Norris Bunn and Patrick Adair (who has since given up his team to Heath Oderman) joined the league. Other ownership changes that occurred in this time period include:

• Founding Father Derrick Fleming retiring with defending champ Ryan Waters taking over.
• Two-time Cup winner Mark Fulton heading for hops and suds, allowing for Gridiron3 legend Corey Marquardt to join the league.
• Founding Father Alan Wilbur giving up the ghost after a downturn in outcomes, allowing Yado's Arabs, abs, and Jameson to be a part of our annual gathering.

Get ready for TABLES TABLES TABLES! And remember: this only reflects regular season games. Postseason performance is not included

Last 5 Games

• Kendall's and Ben's recent hot streaks are reflected here.
• Mildly surprising to see Paul down at the bottom.
• Corey? Not so much.

Last 10 Games

• Kendall, Joe, Yado, and Ben lead the way. Sounds right.
• Kirk's uninspiring luck has him down with Russ, Heath, Nathan, Rookie, and Corey.
• CKL's recent middle-class: Norris, Ryan, Paul, and Chad.

Last 25 Games

• This goes back far enough to where we had other owners in the league. This represents the end of the 2017 season, the entire 2018 season, and the current season to date.
• Same names at the top, although Norris and Ryan/Derrick join the kool kids klub.
• Kirk, Nathan, and Corey/Mark taking (it) up the rear. Ouch.

Last 50 Games

• We're getting to the point where we're starting to show sustained patterns of success or failure.
• Joe and the Ryan/Derrick combo lead the way.
• Heath/Patrick and Corey/Mark at the bottom. I can see why these teams have changed hands recently.

Last 100 Games

• It should surprise absolutely no one to see Kendall dominate this table. He's nine games clear of the closest owner.
• The modern Cup winners are first, tied third, tied seventh, sixth, tied seventh, twelfth, and tied third in this chart. Sustained success is a decent barometer of ability to win the CKL Championship, but it's possible to get hot at the right time and put your name on the hardware. 
• Notably, Joe is Cupless in this period, despite being the second best regular season squad. And Russ won it all in 2016 while otherwise being below average.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

Week 9 Numbers

All-Play

• Ben is the first one to clear 1,000 points and continues to dominate the table. He's nearly a full week clear of the rest of the league.
• Rookie currently appears to be the best squad not in the playoff field. Guess his recent smack board bravado isn't unwarranted.
• Despite their low standing on the table, both Chad and Heath have some explosiveness, as evidenced by their standard deviation marks.

Points Scored

Luck

• This table is so damn absurd. The absolute value of luck went up in a big way, yet again.
• Kendall, Joe, Rookie, and Kirk all have historic numbers at this point of the season. I don't think all four can make the 'offs.
• True Blue candidates are Paul, Norris, and Russ.

Luck Chart

Hotness

• Norris up there with Ben. Interesting.
• Corey and Nathan don't have much to show for their recent run of points.
• Ryan starting to worry?

Jenna

• Kirk continues to satisfy. But is he starting to cramp?
• Norris and Rookie are in position to make a move.
• It's probably too late for Corey, Chad, Heath, and Russ.

Playoff Seeding History

• No major changes, yet again.
• Paul continues to slip after three weeks as the number one seed earlier in the season.
• Chad's long, hard slog upward continues. It's something to watch.

Playoff Seeding History Chart

• The only note I have here is about a change between the two halves of the league. Norris and Paul pulled off that dosey doe.

2018 Week 8 - Schedule is King

It's Sunday morning, and I don't have the time or motivation for an elaborate post. But I did want to get a few thoughts off my chest. As last week's post, and Kirk's comments in last week's smack board, indicates, Kendall has likely already punched his ticket to the postseason with his eighth win. Yado, Joe, and Ben are all looking like likely participants as well. Kirk, sitting at at unbelievable 1-7, has no hope to get in the standard five team playoff field. So it's Jenna or bust for Kirk. Sounds about right.

And now the numbers...

All-Play Table

• No surprise, after the highest scoring Week 8, Ben retains his top position.
• Ryan is currently the outlier here, with a 44.2% All Play rate, but a slot in the playoffs. Paul and Norris will be hoping this changes.
• Russ very solidly in last place.

Points Scored

• Roughly 150 points between Ben and Russ.
• Final four don't even get their points on their columns; what an insult.
• Norris, Rookie, Nathan, and Ryan seem pretty even.

Luck

• I'm starting to run out of things to say about how absurd this table is. Kendall and Kirk are as lucky and unlucky as any two teams have ever been at this point of the season.
• Any other year we'd be talking about how historically lucky Joe has been, but he's overshadowed by the Ks. This time in 2015 Joe had a 2.38 score and was the talk of the town. 2012 had some big numbers too, if you want to go back in time and look into it.
• Last week I discussed how the 17.54 absolute value of luck was mind-boggiling. Well it went up. ALL THE WAY TO 20.0! Again, don't get me wrong: the good teams are good and the bad teams are bad. But the story of 2018 in the CKL is the schedule. I'll get into this more as the weeks go by, because it's worth exploring in detail.

Luck Chart

PUNJI PIT

Hotness

• Big Dick Ben. Hay zoos.
• Not the kinda chart Kirk can afford to be in the bottom third of.
• Half of the current playoff field is in the bottom six.

Jenna

• Speaking of big dicks, watch out Kirk.
• Heath, Corey, Chad, and Russ are nearly out of it. Time is running out on making a run.
• Rookie, Norris, and Nathan are theoretically in striking distance, but it's probably down to Kirk or Paul.

Seeding History

• Boring. Minimal changes, and they're all in the bottom half of the picture.

Improvement

• This shows each teams average over the first four weeks of the season and associated rank.
• Then it shows the averages over weeks five to eight, their rank, and is sorted by the percentage improvement from the first group to the second.
• Kirk---sweating bullets.
• I had no idea Heath had made such a turnaround in points scored until I made this chart.
• Same for Russ and Chad. I guess the takeaway here is when you don't score many points early on, it's easier to improve. The whole "nowhere to go but up" thing.
• The consistently good teams are Ben (six to one), Yado (four to two), and Joe (five to five). I wonder if being consistently good is more important than getting hot at the right time.