Wednesday FAABnalysis -- 9/12/12

First, play this while you read.

Big, beefy, exciting day of claims.  I don't want to waste time with the foreplay.  Let's fuck!

Kevin Ogletree -- $26 to Kendall
dropped: Dwayne Harris / other bids: $13 to Derrick, $12 to Joe, $11 to Ben, $6 to Mark, $6 to Norris, $5 to Patrick, $4 to Nathan
HELLO OVERBID!  Not sure if I can properly track my logic to this way-over-the-top $26 bid, other than to say I changed it from $16 to $21 yesterday, to $23 late last night, and to $26 at 11:58 AM this morning.  Not understanding he was locked 'til today, a bunch of people put in failed bids since 'Tree had his breakout game last Wednesday -- $12 to Joe, $6 to Paul, and $3 to Patrick on 9/7, $5 to Patrick on 9/8, and $4 to Patrick on 9/9.  It was that $12 bid that made me nervous.  I thought the price would hang in there at around $15 (I was correct), but then psyched myself out with almost a week to stew on it.  Anyway, I vastly overpaid, bad on me, but I got my guy.  Laurent Robinson translated this role into 858 yards and 11 touchdowns in 14 games played and eight games as "the guy" in the slot for the Cowboys in 2011.  I'm an unabashed UVA homer, and I think 'Tree has more talent that Robinson.  I'm embarrassed to have bid double the next-highest bid, but I'm happy I got him, as I really needed another player on my roster, and I think Ogletree can be that guy.

Jeremy Kerley -- $13 to Derrick
dropped: David Nelson / other bids: none
Another early season overbid, this time for the Jets' slot specialist, Kerley.  I think it's weird that nobody else tried to pick him up, as he definitely showed he's add-worthy with that 4-45-1 performance on Sunday.  Maybe the reason people stayed away is that they're nervous that the Jets' explosive passing game against the Bills was more fluke than fact.  Fool's gold, if you will.  That's the reason I didn't make a move on Kerley.  All the same, Derrick bid the same $13 he put on Ogletree, so he has to be happy to land one of the two guys he really wanted.  There's something to be said for that.

Dexter McCluster -- $11 to Nathan
dropped: Matt Shaughnessy / other bids: $6 to Kendall, $3 to Ben, $2 to Joe
I have a lot to say about this one, divided into three main topics:

1) Three big claims this week, all three slot receivers.  As the NFL moves into more wide-open, no-huddle, hurry-up spread-style passing offenses, we are going to see more and more of this kind of thing, with more and more receivers carrying fantasy value but the player pool growing and cheapening that production, fewer and fewer running backs being worth a damn, and more and more quarterbacks putting up elite production.  In other words, the NFL is about to look like college football did five years ago, and only deep fantasy football leagues (like the CKL) will be fun.  Value tiers will be expansively wide at QB and WR, and so narrow at RB that they feel like TEs felt in the mid-2000s.  That's my prediction.

2) Nathan is doing something very interesting, and I predict very successful: punting IDPs during the week in order to churn his roster with offensive position players.  But it points to one sad fact -- the CKL still hasn't "fixed" IDPs.  Back to the drawing board, but my thought is that the solution is simple -- we just need three defensive flex spots.

3) I love Dexter McCluster.  He's an explosive little guy, and a really, really fun player to watch.  The Chiefs are smart to finally start featuring him more in their offense.  I'm kicking myself that I didn't put more juice behind my bid, but $26 for Ogletree plus the $12+ it would have taken to land McCluster would have decimated my FAAB.

Aldrick Robinson -- $7 to Chad
dropped: Kevin Walter and/or Brian Quick / other bids: $6 to Ben
Robinson came into the game after Garçon (alt-135 for the cedilla) left with his foot injury, and tallied a nice 4-52-1.  Robinson was the Skins' 6th round pick, and is a product of June Jones' SMU program.  In other words, he knows the college-style spread, and should groove well with RG3, who ran a similar system under Art Briles at Baylor.  Garçon is the Redskins' #1 receiver, but if he misses time, Robinson could be the guy.  With Garçon in the lineup, Robinson is in a battle with Josh Morgan and Leonard Hankerson for the #2 job. (Santana Moss has the slot on lock.)  I like this claim, and I think Robinson should probably be owned in the CKL.  Bold claim for Chad, and I think Robinson has a pretty good chance to be productive in fantasy.  Lots of people are buying that Redskins passing game right now, as they should!

Andrew Hawkins -- $6 to Chad
dropped: Kevin Walter and/or Brian Quick / other bids: $1 to Kendall, $1 to Paul
Damn you, Chad.  "Baby Hawk" (as Bengals fans call him) is the little brother of formal Bengal piece of toast cornerback Artrell Hawkins, and is - you guessed it - a slot specialist.  He inherited the role left behind by Jordan Shipley, and Hawk is a more explosive player than Ship ever was.  He's the secret weapon of the Bengals' middling passing game, and could emerge ahead of Jermaine Gresham as the #2 receiving option in that offense.  I was banking on getting Baby Hawk for a buck, but Chad (and Paul) called me out on that bullshit.  Nice work, Chadley.

Dennis Pitta -- $5 to Nathan
dropped: Rashad Jennings / other bids: $3 to Kendall, $2 to Norris
He sure looked legit on Monday night, didn't he?  But buyer beware on this one: the Bungles make every tight end look like 2005 Tony Gonzalez.  That being said, I think this was a great claim by Nathan.  Pitta is clearly involved in the newly wide-open passing offense of the Ravens, and should easily be a top-15 tight end this season if he can stay healthy and if Ed (sucks) Dickson doesn't eat into the production too much.  Nice work, Nate.  To make the claim, Nathan dropped Rashad Jennings.  That darkhorse really fell by the rail in short order, didn't he?  Glue factory!

Mark Sanchez -- $4 to Joe
dropped: Braylon Edwards / other bids: none
No doubt, Sanchize looked good on Sunday, and even drew some praise from Peter King in his MMQB column.  But it's Mark Sanchez.  Yikes.  Who knows?  Maybe I'm wrong and he's good... but I'd take that bet if you were offering.

Andre Roberts -- $3 to Nathan
dropped: Greg Little / other bids: none
Roberts has won the battle to be the #2 target in the Cards' passing game.  Not sure what that gets you, but maybe there's upside there.

Dumpster Diving...

Rod Streater, $1 to Mark -- Lined up as a starter on MNF.  Went 4-27-1.  Not too shabby for a penny claim.

Heath Miller, $1 to Joe -- 4-50-1 in Sunday night's game, and clearly more involved in the Stealer passing game than he used to be.  If you need a tight end, fine.  Limited upside here, but he's a plug and play option.

Bryce Brown, $1 to Norris -- Nori Roll dropped his 2011 redshirt (Dion Lewis) to pick up the real Shady handcuff.  Have you heard the Bryce Brown story?  If not, click HERE.


The rest of the claims were IDPs and kickers, and nothing earth-shattering.  Mark rewarded Tracy Porter's SNF pick six by adding him to the Peens roster.  Kirk rekindled love affairs with Nate Kaeding and Daryl Washington.  I added my most hated kicker ever: Shayne Graham.  And the world keeps grinding around and around on her axis.


Meanwhile, Alan and Russ decided to sit this one out.  Odd decision, considering this was the first meaningful FAAB session of the new season.


And there we have it.  The first FAABnalysis of the 2012 regular season.  We'll have more lists and statistics and whatnot once we have more Wednesday FAAB sessions in the books.  For now, Derrick and I are co-leaders for the Mr. Moneybags award (biggest overbid), while Russ and Ben co-lead for the Golden Sarcophagus (most money remaining).

In fact, here's the full list of money remaining in each team's budget:
The Magic Stick -- $100
Jesus the Moose -- $100
Juris United -- $99
Barclay Street Bruisers -- $99
Nth Degree -- $98
Blackpool Penguins -- $97
The Champeens -- $93
Achilles Heels -- $92
Glitterfist Lasersnakes -- $90
Roo Tang Clan -- $89
Kick Azz Giants -- $87
Double-O Daddy -- $86
THUNDER BEAR -- $80
Pink Nightmare -- $71

And finally, as always, remember...

GOTTA SPEND TO WIN!