Week 13 -- What's at stake?

Our standings entering the week 13 games:

1 Kendall -- 11-1 / 1362 points scored

2 Ben -- 9-3 / 1400

3 Yado -- 9-3 / 1321

4 Joe -- 9-3 / 1294

5 Chad -- 7-5 / 1162

6 Paul -- 6-6 / 1263

7 Ryan -- 6-6 / 1232

8 Nathan -- 6-6 / 1223

9 Norris -- 6-6 / 1212

10 Rookie -- 5-7 / 1318

11 Russ -- 4-8 / 1137

12 Kirk -- 3-9 / 1286

13 Heath -- 2-10 / 1075

14 Corey -- 1-11 / 1111 (all ones!)

Jenna (excluding the four playoff locks):

Rookie -- 1318

Kirk -- 1286 (32 points behind)

Paul -- 1263 (55 points behind)

Ryan -- 1232 (86 points behind)

Nathan -- 1223 (95 points behind)

Norris -- 1212 (106 points behind)

Chad -- 1162 (156 points behind)

Russ -- 1137 (181 points behind)

Corey -- 1111 (207 points behind)

Heath -- 1075 (243 points behind)

So Jenna is REALISTICALLY going to end up with either Rookie or Kirk, with Paul the absolute darkest of darkhorse suitors.

Meanwhile, for the race for the #5 seed, Nathan summarized it best on the message board this week:

WEEK 13 DRAMA

Well, not exactly drama, with the top four seeds locked in, and Rookie having a comfortable lead for Jenna.

But the fifth seed...phew!

The way I'm reading it, any of Chad, Ryan, Norris, Paul and Nathan are still in it.

First, if Chad wins, he's in. But he has to play Kendall's juggernaut squad. If he loses, he's almost certainly out as the lowest scoring team of the quintet.

If Chad loses, the highest season points scorer of any of the other four that wins their Week 13 game will get in.

Norris and Nathan are playing each other, with the loser out.

Ryan gets a desperate Kirk team that is trying to score as many points as possible to try to win Jenna back.

And Paul gets Russ.

Legitimately any of these five can still make the playoffs. I'd give Chad a slight edge since he controls his own destiny, but Paul is looking strong too, with the highest total points scored of the group and probably the "on paper" easiest matchup of Week 13.

Gonna be a good final week of the regular season.

~~~

Finally, the other important thing happening this weekend is the fight for the #2 seed and the other first round bye in the playoffs. That goes to either Ben, Yado, or Joe.

Ben's got the layup of Heath, while Joe and Yado are head-to-head. If Ben beats Heath, he's got #2, while the winner of Joe/Yado has to hope for a Ben loss... but more likely will need to be content with the #3 seed and the right and privilege of calling out his first round opponent!

It's going to be a fun weekend. Best of luck to everyone.

In closing, a reminder about the draft lottery system (new for 2018-19!)

Playoff teams are awarded the following picks in the upcoming draft:

1st place (CKL Cup Winner!) -- #13 overall pick

2nd place -- #14 overall pick

3rd place -- #11 overall pick

4th place -- #12 overall pick

5th place -- #9 overall pick

6th place -- #10 overall pick

The winner of the consolation tournament GETS THE #1 OVERALL PICK, along with the power to decide the keeper declaration order.

The other seven teams that do not win the conso tourney bounce with the ping pong balls in the draft lottery, as such:

#7 -- conso tourney winner, game I winner, 3 wins, #1 overall pick

8 -- I loser, 2 wins, 5 balls, 20% chance for the #2 pick

9 -- J winner, 2 wins, 5 balls, 20% chance for the #2 pick

10 -- J loser, 1 win, 3 balls, 12% chance for the #2 pick

11 -- K winner, 2 wins, 5 balls, 20% chance for the #2 pick

12 -- K loser, 1 win, 3 balls, 12% chance for the #2 pick

13 -- G winner, 1 win,  3 balls, 12% chance for the #2 pick

14 -- G loser, 0 wins, 1 pity ball, 4% chance for the #2 pick

Obviously, it behooves you to win as many games as possible if you fail to make the playoffs and are relegated to the conso tourney. Good luck! It's a mess.

If you have any questions about any of this, let me know!

Again, best of luck to everyone this weekend!

Love,

K

2018 Week 9

The Week 9 to Week 10 transition seems like a perfect time to look at the playoff picture. But with the massive gulf between the haves and have-nots this season, I think I'll punt that topic for at least another week. Instead, let's look back.

A bit over four years ago, I took a look at each franchise's last 5/10/25/50/100 regular season games. Let's do it again. Fortuitously, it's now been exactly 100 regular season contests during the modern era of the CKL. These numbers will take us back to the beginning of the 2011 CKL season, when the league officially expanded from 12 to 14 teams, and Norris Bunn and Patrick Adair (who has since given up his team to Heath Oderman) joined the league. Other ownership changes that occurred in this time period include:

• Founding Father Derrick Fleming retiring with defending champ Ryan Waters taking over.
• Two-time Cup winner Mark Fulton heading for hops and suds, allowing for Gridiron3 legend Corey Marquardt to join the league.
• Founding Father Alan Wilbur giving up the ghost after a downturn in outcomes, allowing Yado's Arabs, abs, and Jameson to be a part of our annual gathering.

Get ready for TABLES TABLES TABLES! And remember: this only reflects regular season games. Postseason performance is not included

Last 5 Games

• Kendall's and Ben's recent hot streaks are reflected here.
• Mildly surprising to see Paul down at the bottom.
• Corey? Not so much.

Last 10 Games

• Kendall, Joe, Yado, and Ben lead the way. Sounds right.
• Kirk's uninspiring luck has him down with Russ, Heath, Nathan, Rookie, and Corey.
• CKL's recent middle-class: Norris, Ryan, Paul, and Chad.

Last 25 Games

• This goes back far enough to where we had other owners in the league. This represents the end of the 2017 season, the entire 2018 season, and the current season to date.
• Same names at the top, although Norris and Ryan/Derrick join the kool kids klub.
• Kirk, Nathan, and Corey/Mark taking (it) up the rear. Ouch.

Last 50 Games

• We're getting to the point where we're starting to show sustained patterns of success or failure.
• Joe and the Ryan/Derrick combo lead the way.
• Heath/Patrick and Corey/Mark at the bottom. I can see why these teams have changed hands recently.

Last 100 Games

• It should surprise absolutely no one to see Kendall dominate this table. He's nine games clear of the closest owner.
• The modern Cup winners are first, tied third, tied seventh, sixth, tied seventh, twelfth, and tied third in this chart. Sustained success is a decent barometer of ability to win the CKL Championship, but it's possible to get hot at the right time and put your name on the hardware. 
• Notably, Joe is Cupless in this period, despite being the second best regular season squad. And Russ won it all in 2016 while otherwise being below average.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

Week 9 Numbers

All-Play

• Ben is the first one to clear 1,000 points and continues to dominate the table. He's nearly a full week clear of the rest of the league.
• Rookie currently appears to be the best squad not in the playoff field. Guess his recent smack board bravado isn't unwarranted.
• Despite their low standing on the table, both Chad and Heath have some explosiveness, as evidenced by their standard deviation marks.

Points Scored

Luck

• This table is so damn absurd. The absolute value of luck went up in a big way, yet again.
• Kendall, Joe, Rookie, and Kirk all have historic numbers at this point of the season. I don't think all four can make the 'offs.
• True Blue candidates are Paul, Norris, and Russ.

Luck Chart

Hotness

• Norris up there with Ben. Interesting.
• Corey and Nathan don't have much to show for their recent run of points.
• Ryan starting to worry?

Jenna

• Kirk continues to satisfy. But is he starting to cramp?
• Norris and Rookie are in position to make a move.
• It's probably too late for Corey, Chad, Heath, and Russ.

Playoff Seeding History

• No major changes, yet again.
• Paul continues to slip after three weeks as the number one seed earlier in the season.
• Chad's long, hard slog upward continues. It's something to watch.

Playoff Seeding History Chart

• The only note I have here is about a change between the two halves of the league. Norris and Paul pulled off that dosey doe.

2018 Week 8 - Schedule is King

It's Sunday morning, and I don't have the time or motivation for an elaborate post. But I did want to get a few thoughts off my chest. As last week's post, and Kirk's comments in last week's smack board, indicates, Kendall has likely already punched his ticket to the postseason with his eighth win. Yado, Joe, and Ben are all looking like likely participants as well. Kirk, sitting at at unbelievable 1-7, has no hope to get in the standard five team playoff field. So it's Jenna or bust for Kirk. Sounds about right.

And now the numbers...

All-Play Table

• No surprise, after the highest scoring Week 8, Ben retains his top position.
• Ryan is currently the outlier here, with a 44.2% All Play rate, but a slot in the playoffs. Paul and Norris will be hoping this changes.
• Russ very solidly in last place.

Points Scored

• Roughly 150 points between Ben and Russ.
• Final four don't even get their points on their columns; what an insult.
• Norris, Rookie, Nathan, and Ryan seem pretty even.

Luck

• I'm starting to run out of things to say about how absurd this table is. Kendall and Kirk are as lucky and unlucky as any two teams have ever been at this point of the season.
• Any other year we'd be talking about how historically lucky Joe has been, but he's overshadowed by the Ks. This time in 2015 Joe had a 2.38 score and was the talk of the town. 2012 had some big numbers too, if you want to go back in time and look into it.
• Last week I discussed how the 17.54 absolute value of luck was mind-boggiling. Well it went up. ALL THE WAY TO 20.0! Again, don't get me wrong: the good teams are good and the bad teams are bad. But the story of 2018 in the CKL is the schedule. I'll get into this more as the weeks go by, because it's worth exploring in detail.

Luck Chart

PUNJI PIT

Hotness

• Big Dick Ben. Hay zoos.
• Not the kinda chart Kirk can afford to be in the bottom third of.
• Half of the current playoff field is in the bottom six.

Jenna

• Speaking of big dicks, watch out Kirk.
• Heath, Corey, Chad, and Russ are nearly out of it. Time is running out on making a run.
• Rookie, Norris, and Nathan are theoretically in striking distance, but it's probably down to Kirk or Paul.

Seeding History

• Boring. Minimal changes, and they're all in the bottom half of the picture.

Improvement

• This shows each teams average over the first four weeks of the season and associated rank.
• Then it shows the averages over weeks five to eight, their rank, and is sorted by the percentage improvement from the first group to the second.
• Kirk---sweating bullets.
• I had no idea Heath had made such a turnaround in points scored until I made this chart.
• Same for Russ and Chad. I guess the takeaway here is when you don't score many points early on, it's easier to improve. The whole "nowhere to go but up" thing.
• The consistently good teams are Ben (six to one), Yado (four to two), and Joe (five to five). I wonder if being consistently good is more important than getting hot at the right time.

2018 Week 7 - Playoff Possiblities

Goal: Eight Wins

Eight wins, y'all. You finish 8-5 or better during the regular season, and you're in the playoffs. Well, you damn well should be. Only once in the last seven seasons (a/k/a the "modern era" of the Cavalier Keeper League) has a team failed to make the Championship playoffs with eight or more wins (sorry, Kirk 2013).

Week 8 kicked off last night, which means we're well past the halfway point of the CKL regular season. It's high time to start thinking about the CKL postseason, who'll be there, and on the flip side, which teams still have any discernible hope of clawing their way into the discussion. I thought the best way to evaluate the chances of current CKL teams making the postseason would be to take a look back at the playoff field at this point in the season during the modern CKL era. Before we take a stroll down memory lane, let's look at where the playoff field currently sits.

2018 Week 7 Seed History

Kendall, Yado, Joe, Ben, Ryan, and Kirk (with Ms. Jenna) represent the current playoff field. How often do teams that are in the playoffs after week 7 move on to the Championship playoffs at the end of the regular season? To put a number on it (and to avoid showing you a lot of boring work), 76.2% of the time. In the past seven seasons, 32 of the 42 teams seeded one through six after seven weeks end up in the dance. The flip side of that number is that ten teams disappointed down the stretch and didn't make it. How should we start our exploration of that interesting 23.8%? Start sad and end happy? Works for me.

These Violent Delights Have Violent Ends

I'm going to attempt to list those teams that have under-performed in the second half of the season in order of least to most painful. Half of the teams that didn't make it in were riding Jenna after seven weeks and couldn't maintain their performance. Those teams are: Joe 2011, Kirk 2012, Mark 2013, Paul 2015, and Kendall 2017. That's kinda sad, but is actually part and parcel of having the Six rule to begin with---it allows a wild card team to make the playoff field that didn't have the required schedule "luck" to gets the wins needed to make it as part of the top five. It's perfectly natural, and therefore acceptable, that the wild card position is going to have a high degree of volatility throughout the season.

With half of the "painful ten" systematically dispatched, let's dive a bit deeper into the more harrowing half:

• Kirk - 2015: After seven weeks of the 2015 season, Kirk sat at 4-3, third in All-Play record, and the fifth seed in the playoffs. He was sixth in the Hotness table, scoring 100.7 points per game from weeks five to seven. He finished the season 7-6, going 3-3 down the final six game stretch, including a three game winning streak from weeks nine through 11 where he averaged 109.8 points per game, good for third in the league. So how did he miss the playoffs?  Chad and Rookie. Chad scored the most points in the league for the season but matched Kirk's 7-6 record, so Jenna sacked up with Mr. Proctor. And Rookie, despite only scoring the seventh most points in the league, finished 8-5 and took the fifth seed. Kirk was on the outside looking in as the seventh seed. His grief/anger carried over into the Conso, where he lost his first two contests before dominating Russ in the 13th place game. Sadly, had he made it to the Championship bracket, there was a path for him to take the Cup. Ouch.

• Paul - 2013: Paul was sitting pretty at 5-2, including a five game winning streak from weeks two to six. Somewhat surprisingly, this record was only good enough for the four seed, as Kendall and Russ were both 6-1, while Ben was also 5-2 but with more total points. Paul's Barclay Street Bruisers, owners of one of the premier, all-time avatars, were third in All-Play record. All signs indicated a run to the playoffs. Unfortunately, the team went 2-4 down the stretch resulting in the ninth seed---firmly in the Conso.

• Ben - 2016: Ben's fall from the 'offs two season ago was more of a luck correction than anything else. Through seven games he was tied for third in the league with a positive luck score. His third seed wasn't unmerited, though, as he was a healthy tied-fifth in the All-Play table. The Gurley Men went on a four game losing streak from weeks eight to 11, before righting the ship with two wins to end the regular season. As is commonly the case in the CKL, 7-6 isn't quite enough to make the Championship bracket. Ben lost out on Jenna to Russ, and would've also lost to record-mate Corey. Ben was in the playoff field the first eight weeks of the season, but never again.

• Rookie - 2014: Another three seed that free fell into the Conso, Rookie's bizarre deviation into weird name space "Sex Panther" squad was 5-2, third in All-Play record, fifth in Luck score, and a meh eight in Hotness. As we've seen with Paul above, a 2-4 finish doomed Rookie to a 7-6 final record and a sloppy, well attended competition for Jenna's last ride. Norris got her over Rookie (seems imminently reasonable, actually). Looking over his schedule that year, Rook's team was never that good, but also never really bad. That goes a long way in the CKL. Just not long enough.

• Chad - 2017: The pain of this fall is compounded by it's recency and the fact that it's totally  unprecedented. This time last year, Chad was fourth in All-Play record, second in luck, 6-1, and the number one overall seed. So, uh, what happened? A mind-boggling, odds-defying six game winning streak followed by a six game losing streak. Chad didn't break triple digits after week six, and lost his two ventures into 90 point territory during the losing streak. His season ended ignominiously with two losses in three tries in the Conso, resulting in a 12th place finish for the one-time first place squad. Painful. Thankfully, we're unlikely to ever see it's match. Chad still seems at least a bit hungover, if not downright snake-bit. He's 3-4, respectable enough, but is last in the league in total points.

Phew---glad that's over with. Let's flip the coin and talk about the ten teams that strived valiantly, scratched, clawed, and did whatever the hell they needed to do to make the playoffs after underperforming in the first half of the season.

The Basis of Optimism is Sheer Terror

• Chad - 2012: There wasn't anything wrong with the 4-3 start to Chad's 2012 season, but a 5-1 finish put him over the hump and into the playoffs. Nothing special here, though, as he fell to Kendall in Round 1. At least this helps remove the bad taste in his mouth from the end of the previous list. Right, Chad?

• Rookie - 2015: Rookie turned the post-Week 7 eight seed into the five seed in the playoffs. Much like Chad 2012, Rookie finished the season with a 5-1 record over his final six games, and much like Chad, he lost in Round 1. But to Chad, not Kendall.

• Rookie - 2017: Hey, another Rookie postseason push. And it's not an unfamiliar story: 4-3 start to the season, 4-2 finish, and a rise from seed eight to five. Guess what? He lost in Round 1...this time to Russ.

• Russ - 2017: Hey, whaddya know, we were just talking about Russ 2017. But his playoff push was an actual turnaround, not Rookie's continuation of "good enough" play. Russ started 2-5, finished winning five of the final six, then took down Rookie before losing to Norris in Round 2.

• Alan - 2011: In the first season of the expanded 14-team CKL, Alan ascended from the mid-season eighth seed to the postseason third seed. It wasn't all that exceptional though, with a 4-3 start yielding to a 4-2 finish. What was particuarly impressive was his rise to and through the playoffs, where he destroyed Mark and defeated Kirk before falling to Kendall in the Championship contest.

• Joe - 2013: Joe's then-Voodoo Brown got off to a 3-4 start that included a three game losing skid from weeks two to four. Brown only lost once more the rest of the regular season (to a mediocre THUNDER BEAR team), moving five spots from ten to five in the process. His first round playoff contest against Russ is one for the ages. I'm pretty sure it was the highest total scoring game in CKL history. After losing that epic showdown, Joe got revenge for his sole second half loss by pummeling THUNDER BEAR for two consecutive weeks.

• Kendall - 2016: When Kendall isn't front-running for the playoffs, he's making inspired pushes to overcome slow starts and get his ass in the dance. Case in point two seasons ago, in which a lackluster Nightmare team was the 12th seed after seven weeks. A 2-5 first half led to seven consecutive victores, including a first round playoff win over Ryan. Joe eeked out a win over Pinkie in round two, ending Kendall's climb. The nine-seed jump from 12 to three is as impressive as any on this list.

• Derrick - 2015: Derrick's final CKL campaign matched Kendall's 2016 in the 12 to three jump. The similarities to Kendall's 2016 abound, in fact, as the CKL-founding Kick Azz Giants started 2-5, then rattled off seven straight victories. Chad ended the run in Round 2 of the playoffs, but it was an epic run deserving of an epitaph. Perhaps Derrick lost too much of his CKL heart in the chase?

• Kendall - 2014: Again, it should come as no surprise that Kendall is making these crazy late season pushes. The absolute movement isn't as strong as his previous entry or Derrick's, but it's still a worthwhile tale. Pink started 3-4, good for tenth in the league at that time. He won the remainder of his regular season games, save a Week 12 loss to Russ. K did additional damage as the third seed in the playoffs, taking down Joe and Norris before losing the Championship to Paul by six tenths of a point.

• Chad - 2013: The story that gives hope to the eight of us currently outside the playoff field is Chad's run to the Cup a half-decade ago. His squad was never bad, sitting at 4-3 after seven games as the league's seventh seed (pay attention, Paul, our current seventh seed). He lost in Week 8 to Russ and Week 12 to Kirk, and that was it the rest of the year. He nailed my THUNDER BEAR team in Week 13 of the regular season and then again in Round 1 of the playoffs. That still stings. He then dispatched Ben and Kendall to take home the hardware.

Note that at least one member, and at most two, of the post-Week 7 playoff field was replaced over the course of each of the past seven CKL campaigns. So at least one of those six owners currently in the field is on notice---and historically, it could be two. There isn't a solid precedent of making a mid-season outsider run to the playoffs and/or Cup, but it has, and can, be done.

So who is going to stay in, who is going to get in, and who is going to fall out? Hell, I don't know, but let's get some guidance from All-Play based remaining strength of schedule. Here is a list sorted from easiest to hardest, based on the collective All-Play record of each team's remaining schedule.

Owner	Opp. W	Opp. L	%
Rookie	221	325	40.5%
Norris	228	318	41.8%
Russ	240	306	44.0%
Chad	256	290	46.9%
Corey	257	289	47.1%
Paul	274	272	50.2%
Kirk	276	270	50.5%
Heath	285	261	52.2%
Joe	287	259	52.6%
Ben	287	259	52.6%
Yado	291	255	53.3%
Kendall	302	244	55.3%
Nathan	306	240	56.0%
Ryan	312	234	57.1%

It would be hard for Rookie or Russ to make a run, but Norris is in seemingly pretty decent shape to dominant some opponents, gets some Ws, and chase that Cup dream, once again. Ryan has better positioning than Nathan since he's currently in, but neither have an easy path forward.

Now go do it.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Numbers

All-Play Table

2018 Week 7 All-Play Table

• I didn't post a column last week, but this marks Ben's second straight week at the top, as he overtook Yado after Week 5. As will become painfully obvious throughout this column, Ben's Gurley Men are the best team in the league and still have the potential to do much more.
• As always, Kendall can be found near the top of this table.
• Kirk still hangs on to highest high; Heath to lowest low; Kendall to highest low, while Russ has lowest high.
• Ten of the league's 14 teams average triple digits. God Bless NFL offenses and CKL scoring updates.
• Joe is Mr. Consistent with the lowest standard deviation. It's a good look with him sitting sixth on the table; conversely Chad is Mr. Explosive, although Kirk and Heath are giving him a run for his money. OO DADDY has two 110+ point performances and four sub-88 whimpers. That's manic af.
• Russ' last few weeks (averaging 104.7 per game over the last three with a 2-1 record) have him out of the historically horrendous danger zone.

Why not, right?

Luck Table

2018 Week 7 Luck Score

• I gotta say, some of these numbers are huge considering we're only seven weeks in. It made me curious, seeing big absolute numbers from Kirk, Kendall, Rookie, and Joe, so I did some digging. In the eight years of the modern CKL era, this represents the highest absolute value of Luck Scores through Week 7. 17.54 is the number I'm talking about, and the next closest is 2014's 13.85. On average, the absolute value score of this table after Week 7 of the previous seven seasons is 11.16. So what does that mean? Schedule is mattering more this season than ever before. I'm not saying Kendall, Joe, and Yado aren't good. Or that Corey, Heath, and Rookie aren't bad. But Kirk, guys. Kirk has a good team. And it's rare to have so many extreme teams at one time. A full half of the league has either six or more wins or one or less victories. That's...kinda crazy.
• I mentioned this in the Smack Board for the Rookie/Kirk contest, but it's undoubtedly the highest overall negative luck score in a CKL contest, ever, with -5.69. The most it could've possibly been in the previous seven seasons' first seven weeks is -4.31. Poor guys.
• Paul, enjoy your sanity.
• I think Kirk is going for the record.

Fun? Maybe?

Hotness

2018 Week 7 Hotness

• Ben...sheesh. Good luck everyone else.
• Only two teams average under 100 points the last three weeks. We're exploding.
• Which makes Corey's number even more disappointing.
• Look at how close that pack from Heath to Chad is. Seven teams, a full half of the league, within 1.8 points on average the last three weeks. CKL margins be thin.

Jenna

2018 Week 7 Jenna

• Kirk still has her. Dude might be unlucky but he's got some game.
• Paul creeping in.
• The average weekly difference between the highest and lowest score each week is 62.6 points. So, at best, Norris and Rookie are more than a week away from Kirk. The bottom quartet is more like three weeks from possibly catching Kirk. Time is running out.

Seed History

• I already put the Seed History chart at the top of this column, so I though I'd add a chart showing seed history visually. Yeah, it's a bit of a mess, but I still think it's interesting.
• Most of the significant movement happened in the first three weeks, which makes sense. Things are still sorting out in the early part of the season.
• Can Russ' recent upward trend continue?

See that CHASM OF SUFFERING!? The top and bottom halves of the league haven't mingled since Week 3. For those of us on the bottom half of the chart, we need to have that change, ASAP.

Positional Points

A few random notes about how scoring is distributed across the starting positions in the league to date.

Yado's Impossible WR Edge

Team	WRs	WRs Rk
Yado	208.3	1
Nathan	165.4	2
Joe	159.0	3
Kirk	155.7	4
Norris	154.1	5
Kendall	152.6	6
Ryan	149.6	7
Paul	143.7	8
Ben	136.2	9
Heath	135.4	10
Chad	129.5	11
Russ	124.7	12
Corey	113.0	13
Rookie	85.1	14

LOOK AT THIS NONSENSE. This is the total points from the two WR positions and does not include any WRs in the FLEX spot. Davante Adams and Adam Thielen are the dopest of duos.

Other Positional Leaders

• Ben has both the leading score at QB (Patrick Mahomes) and RB (Todd Gurley III). He's also the worst at TE and FLEX. Like...WHAT!? His QB and RB are so good it makes up for his TE and FLEX being the worst. Imagine if he got league average production from those spots. I'm delirious.
• Speaking of TE, Norris leads at that position thanks to Travis Kelce. But damn is the position a total s-show.
• Yado leads at FLEX and overall leads the league in scoring from his core (QB/RB/WR/WR/TE/FLEX). It just so happens he also gets the league worst from his "non-core" positions of DPs/K/HC. No surprise then that Yado gets the highest percentage of his overall points from his core (76.82%). Strange brew, man. FYI, Chad gets the lowest percentage from his core (62.29%).
• Ben is the best at DPs, Kendall at K, and Nathan at HC (thanks Sean McVay).
• Worst positions not yet mentioned: Chad (QB); Russ (RB); Rookie (WR1); Corey (WR2); Yado (DPs); Heath (K); Corey (HC).
• Kendall has the best average rank of his position finishers with 5.9. Makes sense as his is one of the best teams in the league and doesn't have the extreme variability from position to position that Ben sports.
• The worst average rank by position is Russ with 9.8, but Heath (9.7) and Chad (9.6) aren't far behind.
• This might be something only I would notice, but most teams treat the DP positions like a depth chart. They get the most points from their top DP position (DP1, if you will), the second most from DP2, and least from DP3. This holds true with everyone except Kirk, who goes the exact opposite. I don't know if Kirk is doing that on purpose (or even if it's possible), but...uh...there you go.

And with that, I'm out...

2018 Week 5

2018 Week 4

It's the biggest theme in the NFL and CKL this season: scoring and offense is up. In the CKL's case, it's WAY up. Let's look back at the scoring averages through the first four weeks of the modern CKL (2011+).

We've never see the kind of jump in scoring from one year to the next like we're seeing between 2017 and 2018. Granted, 2017 was a down year, the lowest average scoring season of the modern CKL era. But if you average all the seasons from 2011 to 2017, and then compare that to 2018's output, you still get an 8.45% increase. That's bigger than any season over season jump we've seen.

So what's the explanation? I think there are at least three concrete reasons scoring is up:

1. After a down offensive season in 2017, the NFL is seeing offensive output like never before. Specifially, there is a spike in passing offense, as there are more touchdown passes through Week 4 than of any other NFL season. Ever.
2. The NFL has never had a better group of QBs than right now. I realize that's a heavily subjective statement, but look back to '88, '98, and '08 and tell me any of those groups are better than the bevy of passer talents currently in the league. Was Bobby Hebert (the 11th rated QB in 1998) better than Cam Newton (11th in 2018)? Would you rather have Neil O'Donnell (6th/'98) or Philip Rivers (6th/'18)? Chad Pennington (2nd/'08) or Patrick Mahomes (2nd/'18)? Yes, I'm cherry picking a bit, but overall, the league's passers are better now than in previous eras. There are any number of reasons for that, from college preparation, the current passer-friendly NFL rulebook, heck, maybe even high school/Pee Wee development. The astounding part of 2018 passers isn't necessarily the top, either. It's the depth. Aaron Rodgers is currently the 13th rated QB. Matthew Stafford is 20th. There are legit, long-term starters 20+ deep. That isn't usually the case in the NFL.
3. CKL rule changes have allowed for more scoring. We juiced sacks and added a position at HC. When you add those factors to the NFL scoring bonanza currently ongoing, it makes sense that scoring is up in the CKL, bigly.

Is this the new normal? My guess is, yes. You need to be pushing 110+ if want a legit shot to win week to week. Already this season we've had losing scores of 119.0, 118.3, 115.9, 114.6 and 104.8. Those are almost surefire wins in previous iterations of the CKL.

Non-Core Scoring

Something I've wanted to look at since we added IDPs/DPs to the league was just how much an advantage they can prove to be for one coach over another. I never took the time to set up an easy, quick method to track this data. Until now. I'm not sure exactly how I want to present this information, so I'll start this week with a couple of tables. If you'd like other bits of information, let me know.

Non-Core Points/Rank

• This table shows each team's total amount of points scored by their DPs, Ks, and HCs through Week 4. It's sorted from highest to lowest total.
• Ryan is getting the most from his non QB/RB/WR/TE group, and that's one of the reasons his odds to repeat as CKL Champion is rising weekly.
• We all know Heath's struggles, particularly with submitting a full lineup. This table bears that out, as he is 24.7 points behind the next lowest team.
• On average, a CKL team is getting 32.3 points from their non-core group. Ryan is getting 39.1, while Heath is getting 21.4. So there are your targets and ranges, folks.

DP Points/Rank

• This table removes the Ks and HCs and shows only the DPs. I'm not saying there isn't a strategy to your weekly K and HC decision, but I think the DPs are, at least slightly, more interesting.
• Kirk, new owner of The Big Stack, is showing us all how it's done. Somewhat surprisingly, he's doing it on the back of mostly tackle compilers, not sack artists. Darius Leonard has been a revelation for him, although his doughnut in Week 5 hurts.
• Heath beats Yado here. Interesting. I guess.
• To give you a sense of the weekly averages/ranges, the league average is 20.3 points, with Kirk at 26.0 and Yado at 15.0. Some juice to squeeze there, but not much.

A couple of other quick hits without a chart:

• Joe is getting the most points from the kicker position; Heath the least (ouch).
• Norris is getting the most from the head coach (nice $5 on Andy Reid); Corey the least (Jets and Bills combo, barf).

The Week 4 Numbers

All Play Table

• He might only have one win but Kirk is the best team in the league. Kirk. KIRK!
• Sizable gap (five games) between the top five and bottom nine. Us shitkickers need to hope Kirk keeps winning so Jenna becomes available.
• Another big gap (six games) between Corey and Nathan. I think that makes sense: the top five are clear playoff teams, the next five are in the conversation, and the bottom four need a rapid, noticeable turnaround or else their eyes will quickly turn to 2019.
• Kirk takes The Big Stack in Week 4; Heath still holds Lame.
• Due to a few stat corrections back in Week 3, Yado joins Kendall as the only two teams not to score less than triple digits.
• There are four (FOUR!) teams averaging 114.4 points per week or better. Insanity.
• Russ is the most stable scoring team, but that doesn't say much when you're buried at 4-48 (a 7.7% winning percentage). Much like last week, only Corey's worse 4-48 start from last season is keeping Russ out of the record books. Most year's everyone has at least ten All-Play wins through four weeks. 
• Heath is conversely the most explosive, but that's only because he has such a strong Week 1 followed by three subpar efforts.

Hotness

• The first true heat check of the season, this is the first week the trending average is different than the overall league average.
• Paul is on fire, and as we've discussed previously, Heath is ice cold.
• Nine of the league's 14 teams are averaging triple digits since Week 2. New normal, indeed.

Luck

• Crazy that Kirk went out and scored The Big Stack, yet is still two games unlucky. Actually, that's precisely the point. When you outscore every team in the league in a week, you win every possible match up. So his luck hasn't changed. Truly one of the weirder starts to the season in recent memory.
• Joe, Paul, and Kendall are with Kirk in the group that is more than one game plus or minus in luck. These are quality teams, no doubt, but as I've said before and will say again, schedule matters.
• Heath, look at you---true blue. A one win team if we've ever seen one.
• And Russ. Poor Russ. So bad he's only "earned" a third of a win this season. Not even, really.

Jenna

• Kirk straight slaying.
• Surprising no one, Ben is looking to slide in if/when Kirk makes it to the top five.
• Everyone else is multiple weeks away from contending. It's Week 5 and it's already to the point where I have rooting interests in every single CKL game going forward. Personally, I think that makes things more interesting.

Seed Story

• Not a ton of movement this week. Ben slides out of the 'offs, Ryan in, and no other movement beyond a seed up or down.
• Kendall, Joe, and Yado continue their high class lifestyle. They haven't spent even a week this season down here with the plebs.
• Rookie, Nathan, Chad, and Russ still haven't tasted that sweet playoff feeling. Can you taste a feeling?
• Week 1 Heath, we barely knew ye.

Yep, this is what I did with my Sunday morning. You're welcome.

2018 Week 3

WE'RE BACK, JERKS!

After a horrific level of blog participation in 2017, it's time to get some nuggets off my chest, out of my spreadsheets, and in front of your eyeballs. Yes, the normal charts and whatnot will be here, but let's get started with a bit of a different take.

Tiers

If you had to "power rank" or make a poll for CKL teams three weeks in, what would it look like? Strike that, let's do tiers instead. Off the top of my head...

Heavy Whipping Cream

Paul - Three straight wins to open the season, current number one overall playoff seed, most points scored, and a layup on the schedule in Week 4.

Whipping Cream

Joe, Kendall, Ben, Yado - The rest of the current non-Jenna playoff field, the order of this bunch comes down to preference. Joe leads the All-Play table (spoiler alert), Kendall hasn't scored less than triple digits, Ben has the number one RB and number two QB to date, and Yado, well, I guess he's riding the high of new parenthood (and a star-less, solid core of contributors).

Half and Half

Kirk - Suffering from just godawful, brutal, Event Horizon type luck, Kirk is currently working up the nerve to slide his hand down from (willing, consenting) Jenna's brassier down to her nether regions. Has roughly the equivalent scoring total as the other playoff squads, but without a single double yoo to show for it. Keep scoring points, working that foreplay, and good things'll happen, Kirk. Bonus karma from yours truly thinking you stole a bunch of my draft picks last month.

Whole Milk

Corey, Norris - Both squads are above .500 in the All-Play table, suggesting they'll be a factor in the playoff discussion going forward. They have bad luck too, just not Kirk-level shit luck. They're both within 20 points (easily striking distance) of Jenna. If I had to paint a picture: they're both dong-handed outside the bedroom door, silently listening for any sounds of pleasure (or discontent) coming from inside. No pressure, Kirk.

2%

Rookie, Ryan - Rookie and Ryan are in similar situations, with Rook being a touch more consistent. Ryan has some ground to make up to defend his Cup. Good news is he already has two wins booked, more than anyone else here, below or in the level up. Maybe I have him in the wrong spot? Oh well, I'm pot-committed at this point.

1%

Nathan - Alright now I'm just ham-fistedly ensuring I get someone in each category. I'm not actually better than any of the teams below, I simply FEEL like I am. Ugh, feelings and fantasy football---not my preferred cocktail. I have a squad filled with WR2s and RB3s. Might need to change my name.

Skim

Heath, Chad, Russ - The damned of the CKL. Some had it done to them (Chad: injuries; Heath: Le'Veon), while others did it to themselves (Russ: three QBs, karmic-ally poor draft performance). Heath has shown he has the capacity for an explosion, Chad has crippling, probably insurmountable injury problems, and Russ is consistently below average, although without the lows Heath and Chad have uncovered. The order for these three will change, but it's hard to envision any of them escaping this low calorie, low flavor category.

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WHY?

• is Kendall rostering Dante Pettis?
• does Kirk roll with an empty roster spot?
• is Jesse James still on Kirk's squad?
• is Alex Collins not getting goal line carries?
• is Yado failing to use his IR spot?
• is Hayden Hurst (0 catches, 0 yards, 0 fantasy points to date) on ANY team?
• is the TE position such a cluster this season?
• is Russ still holding three QBs? Anyone received an offer?
• is Kalen Ballage (theoretically a person) on Russ' team?
• is Corey starting the Bills HC at the Packers?
• did we, collectively, as a league, let Derrius Guice slide to Rookie once the redshirt round opened?
• is my team? WHY?
• can't I quit Josh Gordon?
• is Derrick Henry so bad?
• is Joe's team so good? RB6, WR3, WR8, TE7, RB17, DL1, LB5, K1 to date. RAGE.
• did Chad draft Courtland Sutton in the fifth? Is he gonna keep him?
• is Chad rostering three QBs?
• does Heath not have a HC?
• can't I find anything bad to say about Norris' team?

• 

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All-Play Table

• So maybe Paul isn't the only Heavy Whipping Cream? It's clear to me that the quartet of Joe, Kendall, Paul, and Yado are the class of the league through three weeks, with Kirk and Ben right behind.
• Paul set the scoring standard with 140.2 points in Week 2. He had six players in double figures, including two big bursts from Kirk Cousins (34.5) and Melvin Gordon (24.6).
• Heath is reeling, as he set the low bar two weeks in a row. He'll hope to stop the bleeding in Week 4. 12 points from K Dan Bailey on Thursday night is a good start.
• Kendall looking hard to kill early in the year, with his high total point output and low standard deviation. His minimum is triple digits. Thoughts and prayers, K opponents.
• I'm hesitant to pile on too much on Russ' historically awful start to the season, but damn if he didn't paint a target on himself with his draft mouth. Looking back, though, he can take solace that Corey had a worse start just last year. Both went 4-35 in the first three weeks of all play, but 2017 Corey scored fewer points and had both a lower high and a lower low. So, uh, enjoy that.

Hotness

• Only three weeks in, the order here is going to look a lot like the All-Play table. This chart will become more relevant as we move deeper into the season.
• Top six all the in the playoff field currently. As it should be.
• See? Maybe I am a bit better than Heath, Chad, and Russ.

Luck

• When you start the season undefeated, there is naturally going to be a bit of schedule luck involved. So you see all three unbeaten squads at the top of the table.
• Nathan, Heath and Yado are the most "themselves," if you will. Not much luck involved in their record.
• And then we have Kirk, who should be 2-1, sitting at 0-3. With a -2.00 luck score, Kirk is BY FAR the unluckiest three-week team in the modern history (2011-present) of the CKL. At least you have a consolation prize, Kirk.

Jenna

wuddup grrl

• You can't be feeling like the unluckiest guy ever when Jenna is wearing an undersized shirt.
• That said, Norris and Corey lurk. Leer. Whatever other creepy L words you can think of.
• The range between the highest and lowest score of the week is averaging 64.3 points. So Heath, Chad, and Russ are all at least two weeks away from even sniffing some fingers.

Seed Story

• Yeah, I should've hidden the empty columns, but I just wanna get this post finished and out. Suck it.
• Kendall, Joe, and Yado have found themselves in the playoff field all season.
• While Rookie, Nathan, Chad and Russ haven't been there yet.
• Kirk with the big move coming off 118.3 points in a loss to Joe. Moved him right into the Jenna slot.

COMING SOON

I've been tinkering with some additional numbers that I hope to add to this weekly column soon. I'm trying to get a grasp on who is doing the best job with the "non-core" positions on their lineups. You know, DPs, Ks, HCs, that sorta thing. Would it surprise you to know that Kirk is the DP master to date? That Yado is struggling in that category? That Norris gets the most out of his "non-core" positions? That Russ gets the least?

Alright my typing fingers hurt. I'm out.