Nathan's Nits - Week 4

There has to be a morning after.

Things move pretty fast around here. Just last week Chad's OO Pro squad looked like a conquering platoon, easily slaying opponents while dropping megatons of points over the blood-spattered battlefield. But in Week 4, Chad was a shadow of his early season self and lost his first game of the season. It's a week-to-week league, folks. It's great to have those wins in your pocket (except for Patrick and Kendall), but your team's strength moving forward is what matters most.

Before we take our next step forward, though, let's look back. We're pretty much two months removed from the live draft, and the decisions made that day still reverberate through the league's power structure. Who did well? Who screwed the pooch? Let's investigate the first round of the draft in depth, and next week we'll cover other notables from the remainder.

2015 CKL Draft - Round 1

Rookie blew a little bit of smoke about being conflicted about choosing between Marshawn Lynch and A.J. Green at the pole position of Selection Saturday. I think most everyone knew he was trying to draw up some sort of overpriced demand for the top pick, and that he truly wanted Lynch. That was common sense. Plus, he already had Randall Cobb and John Brown locking down the WR position. When no one paid the piper, Rookie easily took Lynch and left Green as a consolation prize to Patrick. Unfortunately, Beast Mode has performed like he's in a Skittles-induced diabetic coma, coming in at RB49 through the first quarter of the season. Rookie gets marked down for Lynch's performance, but the selection was the correct one at the time.

Patrick surprised by bypassing Green for Mark Ingram. This could be seen as a reaction to Arian Foster's early August groin tear, as Patrick was looking at the possibility of having no RBs on the team if he went with Green at this pick. Patrick eschewed average draft position and expert rankings and it's paid off to this point, as Ingram is RB6 to date.

If Patrick's pick was a slight-to-medium, although certainly understandable, surprise, Yado's pick at three was the slam dunk WTF moment of the entire draft. It's not Peerless-Price-to-Brian-Steele redonkulous, but it's close. Golden Tate wasn't on on my radar for anywhere close to the first round, nonetheless at three overall. And the results bear that out: WR55, 10.4 points scored for The Hezballers over the first two weeks of the season, and a warm spot on the bench since. But Yado doesn't care, because he has other performances (and some agro FAABing) propelling him to a 4-0 start.

Editor's Note: this is the moment I start to do a little dance in the lake house kitchen.

Derrick is up next at four, and with two quality WRs and Gronk kept, he's going RB all the way. He makes a chalk selection with Alfred Morris. Morris has had to deal with the kinda unexpected rise of rookie Matt Jones which has clipped his upside significantly. Morris is RB34.

Gonna try not to oversell this point: A.J. Green should have never been available for me at five. But he was. So I took him. Five seems to be a magical spot in the first round. Luck last year and Green this. WR7 to date. Red Rifle looking like a Pro Bowl lock. Sometimes there's a man...

Thankee

While it took to the end of the first round last season to get the first rookie selected (Bishop Sankey (the Christmas poo - thanks, K) to Chad at 13), Ben got his man with Todd Gurley. While the outlook was very unclear during the early weeks, now Ben's pick must have him uber excited. Gurley exploded onto the NFL scene last week with a quickness, and he looks to be a locked in starter going forward for the Pigs. Ignore his RB56 rank, that number to going to rocket upwards. Well done.

By keeper quality alone, Chad's OO Pro squad looked like a playoff lock. Going out and getting Drew Brees at six was another move to solidify his hold on premium players at each position. I thought Brees might've been gone earlier, although some folks thought he might last to the second, based on some pre-draft league-wide banter. Brees has disappointed thus far, although you can't really blame him for getting his shoulder dinged. He looks to be a QB1 going forward, so the ultimate story of this selection remains to be told.

A perfect mix of pre-season hype and homerism had Ameer Abdullah heading off to Corey's newly minted H'Orcs. The cat is clearly talented, but after flashing in Week 1, he seems to be held back by a disappointingly lackluster Detroit Lions offense. Corey has Ameer benched this week as of press time, signifying his lack of trust in this situation. An RB23 performance to date isn't horrible, but Marquardt certainly wants more.

The rookie running back run continued when Russ selected San Diego's Melvin Gordon. Despite a (perceived) clearer path to greater volume than Abdullah, Gordon has underperformed and been outplayed by white boy running back Danny Woodhead. RB40 is a miss.

It was only a few year's ago that Joe's Big Jorillas were defined by year-after-year of poor luck. That narrative has been thoroughly flipped on its head. Joe took Kelvin Benjamin, who would quickly get injured and be put on injured reserve. Despite getting nothing from his first round pick, BlackBelt BrownBear sits at 4-0 with a chance to take over sole possession of first place this week with a win over The Hezballers. I guess a first round pick can't doom you after all.

At 11 Kirk nabbed super unsexy badass Frank Gore to head up his RB position. I loved this pick at the time, as I was locked into Gore at five before A.J. Green starscreamed into my lap. Gore started slow but has been moving up the RB ranks of late. RB21 on an underachieving Colts offense with a positive trajectory, I'd say this was a solid pick.

No, Starscream isn't listening to you. He's thinking about shaming Richard Sherman.

Norris took hyped up second year WR Jordan Matthews next. With Maclin and Julio giving the Penguins WR1 production at both spots, Matthews gets to chill on Norris' bench. At WR29 to date, Matthews is a bit of a miss, but the fact that Norris doesn't have to start him helps. I think this selection was just fine.

The highlight of Norris' draft day.

Speaking of over-hyped second year receivers, Brandin Cooks went to Paul at 13. The whole New Orleans offense is in a funk, and it appears Cooks might not be true #1 WR material. WR52 to date, this is a bust that Paul still has to start. At least he's sipping whiskey out of the CKL cup and generally NGAF.

Kendall wrapped up the first round and started the second with two rookies, Oakland's Amari Cooper and Jacksonville's T.J. Yeldon. These were both picks with an eye to the long-term future. But they're also producing early, as WR17 and RB 30 respectively. They're certainly not the reason for Pink's unprecendented* 0-4 start to the season.

*unverified

Misc

It's hella interesting that the two remaining undefeated teams are facing off (Joe's BlackBelt BrownBear vs. Yado's The Hezballers) while the two remaining winless squads are going at it (Kendall's Pink Nightmare vs. Patrick's Glitterfist Lasersnakes). We'll only have one team on each end of the spectrum come Tuesday morning. My money is on Joe and Patrick to occupy those bookends.

I love how Yado is making it rain in FAAB. $20 remaining with three-quarters plus of the season to go, and the next closet is Kendall with $62. Dude might be an outlier, but he also might force some change league-wide.

The Numbers

All Play Numbers

• As mentioned earlier, Chad has come back to the pack quite a bit. Now a full eight teams are within one week's performance of the top spot.
• Kendall climbs out of the basement, while Patrick has metrics that indicate he could be there for a while: lowest average points, lowest high score, and lowest standard deviation.
• Watch out for Joe as his Bear squad is hard to kill.

Luck

• Yado and Kendall are exact opposites, both in actual wins and in luck score.
• Look at Chad being all like: "What luck"?
• I don't trust the two-win teams with positive luck at this point of the season. Potential paper tiger alert.

Hotness

• I'm not talking to Joe or Yado for several days.
• Pink is on a bit of an island, with 7.3+ points clear on either side of him.
• KAG is right on the CKL league-wide average of 92.3. Seven teams are above him, six below. 

Jenna Von Oy

• Kirk, Derrick and Rookie are like the last three dudes at the club when the lights go up and the music cuts out and they've all been talking to the same girl. Unless everyone involved is a stone cold freak, she's only picking one of you, at most. At least two are going home to nothing but regret, lotion, and probably a long shower cry.
• The gap between the bottom and top has narrowed---everyone is still in it. But the loser of Patrick/Kendall is in big, big trouble.
• You'd like the see Paulie make a move so he has a chance to defend his cup.

Sorry this was so late, y'all.