Nathan's Nits - 2015 Week 3

Dream Car.

Howdy Gremsters! As has become customary, I've waited until three weeks deep into the season to bust out the pocket protector, oil up the old slide rule, and download all the latest macros and templates for Excel. That's ride, it's the flatulent return of Nathan's Numbers!

Hang tight as we handle some housekeeping. Seeing as Corey is the only newcomer this year, I won't have to qualify or overexplain my nerdery---Corey already knows where I'm coming from. But I will provide a bit more of an explanation as I'm posting the charts and graphs than I normally would; both as an introduction for Corey and a refresher for the rest of us.

But before we get to the money shot, let's fluff up on a few other thoughts rattling around the rusty hamster wheel that is my head.

FAAB

I love that we have to blind bid on free agents. Man, the free for all we had five years back was kind of an unfair mess. I know I wasn't the only one setting my alarm for 4:00 am Wednesday morning to sneak some free agents aboard without having to lose my precious waiver priority. Now the weekly Wednesday auction is an EVENT. It's equal parts talent acquisition and poker. We have to figure out how badly we want someone, how much we think others are going to bid, and try not to look like a fool in the process. Because you know Kendall is going to point out any and all missteps in his must read weekly breakdown of the FAAB session.

I was thinking a bit about how to approach the first few weeks of FAAB. It seems like as a league we kind of pussyfoot around the first couple of auctions before breaking out the big guns. I'm not sure if that is the correct approach. Seems like the earlier you sign someone that has the potential to be a season-changer, the more impact you get from that player and the more you should be willing to pay. Personally, I know I'm afraid I'm going to get stuck with injuries and/or bye weeks up the wazoo later in the season, so I subconsciously take a few bucks off my early season bids as a way to hedge future risk.

Let's stop waxing philosophic and look at a few numbers. There are 14 CKL teams with $100 each, for a total of $1400 total seasonal FAAB to be spent. The CKL season is 16 weeks long, allowing for an average of $87.50 per week. This assumes everyone spends all their dollars over the course of the season, which is a downright wrong supposition considering we have a freaking trophy for whoever pockets the most money heading into the off-season.

Given that we have a few weeks of preseason to make a few moves, it makes sense to reduce that average per week a bit. Let's just call it $80. But then again, I think more money should be spent earlier in the year. Maybe early weeks should be more like $120 spent while the end of the season only see $40.

We're currently 3/16ths through the season. Let's bump that up to a full 1/4 to account for preseason and the fact that post-week 16 FAABs are basically worthless. On average the league should've spent $350.00. On a weighted average it probably should've been more like $440.00. But guess how much we've spent? $314.00.

I think it's time we get more aggressive, particularly early in the season. Yado gets the blue ribbon.

Team Tiers

Here's an off-my-head breakdown of how I see the teams tiering up, from worst to best. These thoughts will be refined (and refuted) by the numbers coming later.

What The Hell Happened?

Pink Nightmare - It's seriously odd and off-putting seeing the four time champ struggling so mightily. We all know he'll right the ship, but will the lead he is spotting the rest of the league be too much to overcome?

Needs Improvement

Glitterfist Lasersnakes, The Magic Stick, Barclay Street Bruisers - Not terribly surprising to see Patrick down here, as he mostly only contributes a great team name and a once-a-blue-moon reddit-funny post. Russ and Paul, though? They're usually competent. Plenty of time to turn it around fellas.

The Mosh Pit

L8 Half-Orc Sorcerers, Sexy Badasses, Blackpool Penguins, Mele Kilikimaka, Trophy Husband - Everyone here seems destined to be in the fight for a playoff spot, although Rookie needs to start winning (or start warming up those oils Jenna likes to use as a pre-game). Some of you (Corey, Ben) have super annoying team names to type so I'm sorry but I'm going to have to root against you doing anything noteworthy.

You tell me you ain't hit that!?

Looking Good

The Hezballers, BlackBelt BrownBear, Scroll Scroll Scroll, Kick Azz Giants - I expect all four of these teams to either make the postseason or be bitterly disappointed.

Aaron Rodgers is a magician and he gets to sleep with Olivia Munn

OO Pro - Damn. Just think about that.

The Numbers

All Play Numbers

• This is a table that is sorted by your team's record if you played every other team each week. It also lists total points, weekly high, low, and average, as well as standard deviation, which shows you your typical scoring range. Both add/subtract your standard deviation to/from your average and you get your typical scoring range.
• Chad's numbers, while not as sexy as Munn, are damn fine. He's got an early season grip on the coveted triple crown of highest how, low and average. And he nearly has Mr. Explosive as well.
• Speaking of Mr. Explosive, the title held by the team with the highest standard deviation, Russ' Magic Stick have it right now. That's what happens when you have a 50 point difference between your high and your low.
• Chad's 34-5 start is only recently bested by his own 35-4 record after three weeks of the 2011 season. Not for nothing, but Chad started 3-0 in 2011 only to go 3-7 down the stretch, losing all three of his conso contests. Cautionary tale?

Luck

 

• This table calculates your average wins based on your all-play record. Then is compares it to your actual record and gives you a luck score. High = lucky; low = unlucky.
• Makes sense that Yado is at the top, but the real kicker is Rookie at the bottom. Gotta go hard after Jenna, Rook.
• The divisions don't mean anything besides playoff seeding, but man is Blue both clearly BETTER and clearly LUCKIER so far.

Hotness

• This is just your average for the last three weeks, which will take on more meaning as the season goes along.
• Chad dominates, Kendall supplicates.

Jenna Von Oy

• Jenna is the prize for that hard charging team who can't get the Ws on the board. Score more than everyone not in the Playoff Top 5 and the girl is yours. Oh and you get the six-seed.
• Derrick gets the initial honors while everyone but maybe Paul, Patrick and Kendall are within a weeks' striking distance.
• Girl likes to get freaky, and its a good thing for Derrick, Rookie and Ben, as without her in your lives Kirk would have the six spot right now.

Next week: a look back at the first two rounds of August's draft.

Have a great weekend and stay safe, especially those of us getting drowned right now.