Nathan's Nits - Week 13

Week 13 was the most determinant week of fantasy football I can ever remember. So much was still to be decided. The top three seeds had to be sorted, while the final three had to be resolved. Jenna was to be finally whisked away to the honeymoon suite. Considering the importance of the final week of the regular season, I went over the start/sit decision with a finer tooth comb than usual to attempt to dig out all those deeply embedded nits. What I found was that there were less critical decisions to make than ever. Most everyone knew who to start and who to not. Nevertheless, I scraped a few thoughts together.

Week 13 Start/Sit Thoughts

Paul: I can see not playing Woodhead, but I might run him out there over fumbles-and-he's-benched Vereen or disappointing Spiller. You need upside so Goodwin might be a better play than Wright.

This is called getting it completely wrong. Spiller might be disappointing in general this season, but he still is full of upside every time you roll him out there. I thought Goodwin might be able to use his elite speed to get behind the defense and grab a long score or two, providing more explosiveness than possession receiver Wright.

Performance: Spiller only had his season best performance with 21.7 points, while Woodhead scored 3.5, his lowest output since Week 1. Goodwin put up a goose egg while Wright was his ever solid self with 8.5.

Patrick: Is Palmer over Wilson a match up play? Head scratcher a bit. Ben Tate or Jonathan Stewart (with D-Will inactive) might make a better flex play than running two tight ends out there. Then again, Olsen has had a pretty good year.

This feels quite a bit like Patrick simply didn't check his team on Sunday morning. As for my thought process: Wilson is better than Palmer. Tate or Stewart over Olsen is a harder call. Patrick does have two of the top six tight ends, especially with Orange Julius and Jordan Reed ailing of late. But there is more upside with Tate. Although he had just experienced a seven carries for one yard line against the (maybe no so) hapless Jags.

Performance: Wilson outscored Palmer 29.1 to 20.9. Good game from Palmer, but why go good when you could get great? Tate went for 28.2, Olsen 8.5, and Stewart 4.2. That is how you leave a win on the bench.

Norris: not gonna reward Mendenhall for his touchdown last week? Yeah, I'd bench him for Gio vs. that ridiculously bad San Diego defense, too.

Mendy has been kind of startable the last three weeks. Weird, right? Not sure why I'm focusing on the non-playoff teams so much. Perhaps their decisions are more compelling, since the good teams have relatively easy start/sit decisions, since they're good and all?

Performance: Coin flip. Mendenall had 7.6 on the bench while Gio had 7.4 in the FLEX spot. Doesn't matter when you're dropping triple digits on a playoff team. C'mon, that's kinda satisfying.

Derrick: Randle over Cooper is interesting, but I agree that it's the correct call.

Why did I agree it was the correct call? Oh yeah, because Arizona's defense is good. But Philadelphia's offense is better. In fact, it's the best in the league since Foles took over.

Performance: Randle underacheived (as he does) with 2.0 points, while Cooper wasn't a much better 4.8 on the bench.

Joe: Michael Floyd in the FLEX. STRONG.

I see that you actually make a last minute adjustment to your lineup, Joe. Not sure what you did or what the impact was, but playing Floyd has become a no brainer. Dude is a WR1! You have three of those guys! Could Voodoo be the Cup favorite right this moment? Eh, get through those tough Week 14 match ups and then we'll talk.

Final Regular Season Numbers

All Play Table

• Congratulations to Kendall on completing a season with the best all-play record in the league. He outscored both Russ and Ben in Week 13, while Ben scored the least points of anyone in the league. That's how he slipped to third. It was his worst all-play performance of the season by far. This is the fourth time Kendall has taken home this award, and we've only been tracking it for six. And last year, he was in second by one flipping game. Geez Louise.
• Ben, despite the slip, still takes home the total points/highest average award.
• Kendall's Week 1 explosion of 152.9 points rode the entire season as the highest score of the year.
• Rookie's wins the "I Didn't Inhale" award for lowest high, with a measly 108.9. How appropriate.
• Kendall also wins the "Hard to Kill" award with the highest low score of the season with 74.9. Is "Hard to Kill" a better name for this than "I Only Sleep with 7s or Better"?
• Lowest low? Does this one have a name? That belong to Norris, with a paltry 45.9.
• Mr. Explosion, or perhaps it should be called Mr. Variability, goes to Norris with his 23.26 standard deviation.
• On the flip side, Mr. Reliable is Nathan's. A 14.05 standard deviation means I had the narrowest of possible outcomes week to week, with 10 of my 13 scores falling in the 87.95 to 116.15 point range. I think I actually won a Mr. Reliable award in eighth grade. DON'T TELL MY WIFE HAR HAR.
• While I stole Jenna from Mark, Joe is the one who took his playoff spot, according to the all-play metric.
• Derrick, twelve games clear in the basement.
• The difference between the highest and lowest scoring teams was only 23.4 points per game. Yeah, that sounds like a lot. But there are 14 teams in this league. You're never as good or as bad as you might think you are.

Luck Table

• How is the Blue division so much luckier?
• Kirk, a full two and a half games better than he should be. That's why he's in the conso despite an 8-5 record.
• Kendall, Mr. True Blue (er, Orange).
• Derrick, not only the worst team by all-play, but also the unluckiest. This is your bottom, coming up to meet you. Better days ahead.

Hotness

• Joe blowing up. And Russ in third called him out. 
• The wild card round of the playoffs features the four hottest teams in the league. I like that.
• The bye-earners, though, coasted in. Ben is 11th and Kendall 12th. You can trust they're looking for turnarounds on their squads this week, despite not having a contest.
• Derrick. Damn. Sorry man.
• Paul, so close. You did what you could down the stretch.

Jenna

• Tough to have her all year and yet not get her. Sorry Mark. Not really.
• Take me out of the equation. Assume I pooped my pants in Week 13. Mark would've won this thing over Paul by one tenth of a point. INSANE.

2013 CKL Playoff Notes

#1 Seed Jesus the Moose

Ben makes his second overall (and second straight playoff appearance). A member of the league since 2006, Ben rode Jenna to his first cup last year and grabs the pole position this year. Can he become the second team to post back-to-back cup wins (Kendall did it first in CKLs three and four in 2004 and 2005.

#2 Seed Pink Nightmare

Kendall extends his CKL record with his fifth straight postseason appearance. Unsurprisingly, he also leads the league in total postseason appearances with eight. Kendall leads the league with four cups to his name.

#3 Seed The Magic Stick

Russ earns his first ever trip to the Cup playoffs after missing out his first nine years in the league.

#4 Seed Double-O Daddy

Similar to Ben, Chad is making his second straight, second overall appearance.

#5 Seed Voodoo Brown

Joe’s ends his five year playoff drought, earning his third trip overall. He was the winner back in 2006, and was defeated by Rookie in the 2007 Cup Championship in a bid to go back-to-back.

#6 Seed THUNDER BEAR

It’s Nathan’s fourth trip to the Cup playoffs, but his first as anything but the #1 seed. That seed has not been kind to him, though, as he lost in the cup finals to Joe (‘06) and Mark (‘08) before losing to Norris in the divisional round last year.

Overall Playoff Appearances by Owner

(8) Kendall: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

(7) Derrick: 2002, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011

(5) Alan: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2011

(5) Mark: 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
(4) Big Joe: 2004, 2006, 2007, 2013

(4) Nathan: 2006, 2008, 2012, 2013

(4) Rookie: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011

(4) Kirk: 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011

(3) Paul: 2002, 2007, 2012

(2) Ken: 2002, 2003

(2) Ben: 2012, 2013

(2) Chad: 2012, 2013

(1) Russ: 2013

(1) Norris: 2012
(1) Joe Joe: 2003

(1) Tom: 2005

Patrick is the only current owner to not yet make a trip. He joins previous owners John Hall and Brian Steele with that distinction.

Thanksgiving FAABnalysis -- 11/28/13

What you don't want to have the Tuesday before Thanksgiving: A nasty stomach bug screaming through your house and home, reducing you and your family to a wheezing, retching wreck.  I AM THANKFUL FOR NAUSEA AND VOMITING, FOR FOAMY DIARRHEA, FOR HAVING THE OPPORTUNITY TO CLEAN MY KIDS' PUKE OUT OF THE CARPET WHILE I MYSELF AM HOLDING BACK BARF, AND FOR A WEIRD / INTENSE FEVER ONCE MY STOMACH FINALLY STARTS TO STABILIZE.

Fuck you, Pilgrims.  Fuck you, Indians.  Hell with it, fuck you, too, India.  And Indiana.

Fuck you, cornucopia.  I never fucking understood you, anyway.  What are you, like a giant fucking bugle, filled with raw corn and shit?  It's fucking strange.

Okay, so I guess it's like a weird basket without a flat bottom.  Kinda renders it useless if you ask me.  Like when you lay it down, it just lets the pumpkin and apple and tomatoes and onions and corn roll out.  Retarded.

Throwing out a vine to the online dictionary.

cor·nu·co·pi·a  (kôrn-kp-, -ny-)

n.

1. A goat's horn overflowing with fruit, flowers, and grain, signifying prosperity. Also called horn of plenty.

2. Greek Mythology The horn of the goat that suckled Zeus, which broke off and became filled with fruit. In folklore, it became full of whatever its owner desired.

3. A cone-shaped ornament or receptacle.

4. An overflowing store; an abundance: a cornucopia of employment opportunities.

Wait, what?  A fucking goat's horn?  Okay, that's pretty rad.  And I dig the Greek Mythology angle.

Wow.  Now I feel like an ass.

But fuck the Pilgrims.  And fuck Indiana.

I'd be a huge Jews fan, I think.

But all joking aside -- HAPPY THANKSGIVING.

I truly am thankful for this league, and for each of the 13 of you guys.  Hell, I'm even thankful for Ken, Joe-Joe, Brian Steele, that guy Tom, and even John Hall.  Turkey it up today, you guys.  And when push comes to shove, do yourself a favor and opt for the cranberry sauce instead of the gravy.

Okay, here's your soundtrack for this week, just because I really enjoyed the overlay during the intro to the first Governor-only episode two weeks ago, and the song has been stuck in my head:

It's the nature of the beast.  FAABnalysis kind of peters out at the end of the season, because we're mostly out of money and the talent pool is dryer than my balls after blasting off while watching The Good Morning Show on Sprout.

But yet we go through the motions.  And who knows?  Maybe one of these claims will help power one of us on a Cup run?

I'm skipping the stats, though.  They've always been lame, and I don't give enough of a shit to add numbers in (and on my fingers) my head right now.

Claims!

Ladarius Green -- $9 to Kendall

Dropped: Mychal Rivera
Other Bids: $4 to Chad
He's a big, young, talented tight end who currently seems to be eating Antonio Gates' lunch.  I bid $9 so I could safely outbid everyone but Chad, Russ, and Doc.  Because if Jordan Reed is going to be a pussy about this concussion, I'm going to need a tight end, and Green looked like the best shot in the dark at a late-season explosion.
Grade: Pumpkin Pie (nobody's favorite - let's be honest - but sometimes it just tastes SO GOOD.)

Tryptophan*

Andy Dalton -- $8 to Nathan

Dropped: Case Keenum
Other Bids: none
Nathan is facing what could be a must-win game against Chad, RG3 has been playing like white dogshit, and the Red Rifle is taking aim at the Chargers and their 29th-ranked defense against opposing QBs.  It all makes sense, and I personally guarantee that Dalton will deliver the goods for Nate on Sunday.  300 yards, 2 touchdowns, book it.  If he does come through and makes Nathan look smart for making this claim and benching Bob, it's a COTY feather in the cap.  But let's not get ahead of ourselves yet.
Grade: Honey-Glazed Ham (the surprisingly awesome alternative to turkey!)

Suck my dick.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- $5 to Chad

Dropped: Mike Glennon
Other Bids: none
Last season, the Bengals found a way to make a late 7-1 rally by nutting up and going with the power run fueled by the Law Firm.  I'm predicting a similar path this season, which means Green-Ellis could emerge as a decent RB2/RB3 for a CKL playoff run.  We'll see.  Gio Bernard will continue to cut deep into his carries, and the passing game (despite Dalton's struggles) is much improved due to the emergence of other weapons.  I think Law Firm is a fine bench add for this point in the season.
Grade: Stuffing (as in, you are stuffing your bench.)

Dumpster Diving...

Justin Hunter, $1 to Mark -- He's flashing, and this was a smart grab.

Seyi Ajirotutu, $0 to Alan -- I love this guy, but I doubt his role is going to be anywhere close to fantasy-worthy.

Jermaine Gresham, $0 to Alan -- Could be good, but I hate how he and Eifert cannibalize each others' production.

Jacob Tamme, $0 to Paul -- THE JULIUS THOMAS HANDCUFF.

Benny Cunningham, $0 to Joe -- THE ZAC STACY HANDCUFF.

C.J. Anderson, $0 to Nathan -- THE KNOWSHON MORENO HANDCUFF?

(The previous three claims is what makes fantasy football, and the CKL in particular, so magical.)

Brandon Bolden, $0 to Nathan -- One of these days, Ridley is going to fumble, get benched, and never be heard from again.

Lance Briggs, $0 to Russ -- Well played, Mister Hudgins.

Remaining Budgets

Kick Azz Giants -- $45
The Magic Stick -- $18
Double-O Daddy -- $13

Pink Nightmare -- $9

The Champeens -- $4
Sic Semper Tyrannis Rex -- $4
Jesus the Moose -- $3
The Sexy Badasses -- $3
Glitterfist Lasersnakes -- $1

Everyone else is straight TAPPED.

Top-10 Biggest Claims of the Season
1) Nick Foles -- $58 to Ben on 10/16/13
2) Willis McGahee -- $55 to Paul on 9/20/13
3) Joseph Randle -- $51 to Norris on 10/16/13
4) Harry Douglas -- $40 to Kendall on 10/9/13
5) Marvin Jones -- $39 to Kirk on 10/30/13
6) Mike James -- $31 to Norris on 10/23/13
7) Brandon Jacobs -- $27 to Patrick on 10/16/13
8) Jason Campbell -- $25 to Mark on 10/30/13
9) Jake Locker -- $22 to Paul on 10/2/13
10) Chris Ogbonnaya -- $21 to Patrick on 10/16/13
10) Felix Jones -- $21 to Rookie on 9/18/13



That's it for this week's edition, but as always, remember...

GOTTA SPEND TO WIN!

* Yeah, I know this picture is of Von Miller, but it was too funny to resist.

Week 12 Numbers

Not gonna do a full blown Nits with the holiday, so here are the penultimate tables for your review during Turkey Day football game commercials.

Thankful for this league and you guys, you guys.

All Play Table

• And down the stretch they come! After hanging back a bit Russ has made a big move and is definitely in play. Ben shit the bed last week, allowing for a true three way race in Week 13. Exciting! First seed on the line and the All Play title.
• Mark, Nathan, and Chad aren't unrealistic as the final three playoff seeds, and this table supports that.
• Paul, Joe, and Kirk have shots too, especially Joe and Kirk. Kirk only has a better record than four teams, and he might be the fifth seed. See the next table for an explanation.
• Doesn't look like Derrick is going to be able to avoid the basement.

Luck Table

• Sexy, a Badass, AND lucky!? Unfair. Over two games above expectation, can Kirk package his good fortune into a playoff spot?
• Rookie, ouch.

Hotness Table

• Ben certainly looks like the number one seed, but he'll need to overcome a down week and probably a win to seal the deal.
• Told you Juris was on fire.
• Kirk: lucky as hell and cold as ice. What a weird profile.

Jenna Table

• Looks like a slam dunk for Mark, but keep in mind that THUNDER BEAR and Double-O Daddy could get involved, both of who are closer to Mark than anyone else.
• It would take a miracle for Paul to steal Jenna.
• Mark has danced with her most of the year, time to unwrap the condom.

Week 13: Playoff Scenarios

Perhaps its recency bias or selective memory, but I can't recall an end of the season playoff picture quite like the one we have heading into the final week of the regular season. Its true that Ben's Jesus the Moose, Kendall's Pink Nightmare, and Russ' The Magic Stick have all punched their tickets to the CKL Championship postseason, but beyond that fact there lies nothing but uncertainty. NOT A SINGLE ONE OF THE PLAYOFF SEEDS HAS BEEN DETERMINED. That's insane. Everything comes down to Week 13. FIVE OUT OF THE SIX GAMES HAVE PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS (sorry Norris/Alan). The possibilities are....mind boggling. I've been sifting through them all morning, and hope to present them to you in a somewhat easy to read/understand format.

Let's start at the top.

#1 Seed

Ben, Kendall and Russ all sit at 9-3. Ben leads Kendall by 35.8 total points and Russ by 74.4. Ben currently has the best shot at the #1 seed due to this lead in points scored. If all three win or all three lose, Ben most likely earns it.

Kendall gets to pick the second round match ups if he wins AND Ben loses AND Russ either loses or wins and fails to make up Kendall's 38.8 point advantage.

Russ' only realistic chance at the top spot is if he wins while Ben and Kendall lose. He could make up those points on Kendall, but it doesn't seem very probable.

#2 Seed

The number one seed scenarios also decide number two. The easiest way to put it is that Kendall gets it IF AND ONLY IF he doesn't get the first seed. This is based on the CKL rule that the top two seeds go to winners of the Orange and Blue divisions. Kendall has already wrapped up the Orange, so he can do no worse than the two seed. 

If Kendall and Russ win while Ben loses, Russ gets the two seed.

If Kendall wins while Russ and Ben lose, Ben gets the two seed.

#3 Seed

The final domino in the top three scenario jumble, whoever hasn't claimed one of the top two spots will get this one. It can only be Ben or Russ. Ben wins, it'll be Russ. Russ wins while Ben loses, it'll be Ben.

#4 Seed

There are some wacky, way out there scenarios for this playoff placement, but the overwhelming likelihood is that the winner of the Nathan/Chad Week 13 game gets number four. Those wacky, way out there scenarios:

• Joe wins and outscores the Nathan/Chad winner by 62.6 (if it's Nathan) or 55.7 (Chad). That kind of scenario would require both Nathan and Chad to post two of their lower scores of the year, while Joe explodes (totally possible, see last week).
• Kirk could also technically get there, but he has an even crazier path. A path so crazy it truly is impossible. He'd have to outscore a Nathan win by 111.4, a Chad win by 104.5, and Joe (if he wins) by 48.8. That ain't happening. But if it does, I'll eat my pants. The old Dickie's with grease stains.

#5 Seed

The fifth seed is truly the shit show of the Week 13 scenarios. Any of SIX TEAMS have a chance to get the fifth seed. A quick breakdown of those teams:

Team	Win-Loss Record	Total Points
THUNDER BEAR	7-5	1215.2
Double-O Daddy	7-5	1208.3
Voodoo Brown	7-5	1152.6
The Sexy Badasses	7-5	1103.8
The Champeens	6-6	1236.5
Barclay Street Bruisers	6-6	1169.7

There are so many permutations that I'm going to attempt to list them by what I consider to be the most to least possible. The assumption for all of these scenarios is that the winner of Nathan/Chad is the four seed.

• If either of Joe/Kirk wins while the other loses, the winner gets the fifth seed. Hey, that's pretty simple.
• If BOTH Joe/Kirk win, Joe gets it so long as Kirk doesn't outscore him by more than 48.8 points.
• If both lose, it gets nutty:
• Mark gets it with a win and not being outscored by the Nathan/Chad loser by 21.3 (Nathan) or 28.2 (Chad). The implications for Jenna get cray cray under this particular scenario too.
• The Nathan/Chad loser gets it if Mark loses OR wins and is outscored by the Nathan/Chad loser by 21.3 (Nathan) or Chad (28.2) AND Paul either loses or wins and fails to outscore them by 45.8 (Nathan) or 38.6 (Chad).
• Paul gets the fifth seed if he wins, and all three of Joe, Kirk, and Mark loses AND he outscores the Nathan/Chad loser by 45.8 (Nathan) or 38.6 (Chad).

I realize this is mostly mental masturbation, but the most likely scenario is that Joe or Kirk get the fifth seed. But one or both of them will have to win to make that possible.

#6 Seed - Jenna!

Ah Jenna, the sexiest of rule changes. Good thing for her rule changes aren't generally considered sexy. Mark has owned her for a majority of the season, and that hasn't changed heading in the ultimate week of the season. 

Based on total points, there are only three reasonable guesses for the Jenna: Mark, Nathan, and Chad. The winner of Nathan/Chad will get in. So its down to Mark and the loser. If Mark somehow earns the fifth seed, the Jenna will go to the loser of the Nathan/Chad contest, unless Paul can overcome his deficits to Nathan and Chad.

More than likely, Mark gets Jenna.

Summary

Ben has the edge for the #1 seed. Kendall and Russ still have a shot at it though. Kendall already has a bye locked up. Ben and Russ are fighting for the other one.

The winner of the Nathan/Chad contest will more than likely be the four seed. Joe and Kirk are in good shape to make a play at the fifth seed, although it'll get bonkers if they both lose. Mark is favored with Jenna, but Nathan and/or Chad could make a last minute play.

Imagine being Mark, wooing Jenna for hours at the bar while she's getting tipsy, even maybe get his hand down her pants, only to see some dweeb like me or Chad roll in and pull the ultimate cock block. He might have to change his team name to Blue Balls.

Week 12: Predictions and Promises

Ben is laying out this week due to 2nd son related shit, so this is a solo post mother fucker.  As Billy Idol put it...I'm Dancing with Myself.

There is a lot of if then, then that this week with 4 of the teams in a 6-5 situation.  But before we get to the goods, let's blow through so of the least meaningful matches.


Juris United (4-7) at Charlie Brown Syndrome (3-8)
ESPN Gameline: Alan by 8.1

Alan presently has 5 QBs on his team.

• Eli Manning
• Ben Roethlisberger
• Josh Crown
• Sam Bradford
• Soctt Tolzien

So when I was wondering were that Rogers (QB) backups were, I needed to look no further than the Lady Justices (my new name for Alan's team).  Alan what the cold fuck is going on?  Are you collecting out of spite, because I never received a trade offer. I'm going to get real for a minute because I got brought to the mat earlier this week because I attempted to trade my entire team away for Doug Martin (everything but AP and Rodgers), and yet this hording ass bs behavior goes unchecked. CKL Sheriff...get to work!

Norris could give 2 shits anyway with Denarius Moore (WR) out and still in the line up.  Norris is now the ex-NFL kicker whose's bar failed after his coke head wife left him for that card player who "has a system" and all his teeth and doesn't go limp dick half way through an unmeaningful sexual encounter. In other words...someone needs a shower, a good meal, and maybe a hug.  

Lady Justices by 5 but I request an appeal.

Double-O Daddy (7-4) at Kick Azz Giants (1-10)
ESPN Gameline: Chad by 26.7

I want to hand it to Doc for still adding and dropping players even today. This means the gameline is out of sync, but I doubt a Nate Washington or Brandon Jacobs on the line will be able to lift Doc to a win.  Doc's team is still there to put up a fight, but Chad's only real weakness is QB and unfortunately he can't trade for any of Alan's horde anymore.  I should have put in a bid for Antonio Brown (RB) Chad, so there is something there for next year if you remember.  Chad should take this in a walk and keep his stroll on into the playoffs.
Chad by 15+

The Magic Stick (8-3) at Pink Nightmare (9-2)
ESPN Gameline: Russ by 1.9

This is your game of the week and perhaps a preview of the finals.  The headline right now is that Kendall has no TE with Jordan Reed (TE) out.  He dropped Pettigrew (TE) earlier this week but has yet to add a solid backup.  So if you want to fuck with Kendall then drop all of you extra guys and pickup a TE tomorrow during the Sunday FAAB.  Kendall is rolling $18 strong so make your bids high.

So even without a TE, Kendall is still favored by 1.9.  I'd like to care about this game but it doesn't fuck matter.  Both of these teams could lose the rest of their games and be in the playoffs so fuck it.

I go Kendall by 5+.


Glitterfist Lasersnakes (5-6) at The Champeens (5-6)
ESPN Gameline: Mark at 1.7

I like my Jenna in purple socks

This game does have some meaning but only that Mark has to score points so let's look at that for a moment. (Sorry Patrick I don't care that you and Mark have a thing going, the rest of us don't care and I don't think Mark really cares that much either.)

Stafford (QB) 20+, Forte (RB) 18 +, James Jones (WR) 12+, Welker (WR) 12+, Martellius Bennett (TE) 5+, Eddie Lacy 15+, DPs 27+, Crobsy +12 =  100 to 125.  This is a solid team on their way to the playoffs.  I admit, I completely wrote you off Mark...sorry about that.

Here are the meaningful matches

Sic Temper Tyrannis Rex (2-9) at The Sexy Badasses (6-5)
ESPN Gameline: Kirk by 14.7

I put this game in the meaningful category because I have an outside chance of the playoffs. I need some losing but there is a still a minor chance. I talked to Ben and he gave this game to me, so there is that.  I would like to take a moment and comment on the Bikini Bowl this year. I put in some solid effort this week and yet I am getting a little push back that the Rookie is actually ahead.  Let me lay it fucking straight you illiterate assholes...when it says "Kirk Whitt" that means that I posted the fucking pic.  Grind that into your rock filled skulls, Kirk Whitt.

By the way Rookie...fucking pathetic show this year.  Of course...expected.

Kirk by 7

Barlcay Street Bruisers (6-5) at The Thunderbear (6-5)
ESPN Gameline: Nathan by 6.8

This is most meaningful game of the week.  Both teams are currently in the playoffs so a loss here will most likely put someone out.  Let's make it happen by those sexy numbers.

Nathan has

• RG3 (QB) at SF which could be a big Monday Night Football game but I see a sub 20 production.  
• Reggie Bush (RB) against TB is a mix bag.  Bush has been laying off Friday practice but this week he was taking reps so it could signal a big day.  Historically he is on off, last week was off, this week should be on but 18+ seems like a stretch.  
• VJax (WR) at Detriot.  15+ I am in.
• Brandon Marshall (WR) - Chicago at the St. Louis.  To hit the line Marshall needs 15 and I don't see a problem here.  
• Antonio Gates (TE) - the #1 team against a TE in the league is the Chiefs.  This could be a problem for Gates who average 8 and is against the get 12 for the line.  
• Andre Brown (RB) at home against the Cowboys.  This is the sleeping Giant (pun) for Nathan this week.  I see easily 2 TDs.  

Add that together and I see a safe 85 points and then 25 to 30 from Defense and kicking.  105 to 115.

Paul has a little of hill to climb this week to get over the Nathan hump.

• Peyton Manning at 24.7...easily. 
• Bobby Rainey (RB) is a wild card #2 RB that Paul has as the main rushers this week.  Hit hit 34.7 points lat week and could take in a Marvin Jones 3.4 this week.  It was the pick of the FAAB and the only bet Paul has to play. 
• Alshon Jeffery (WR) is a solid WR and should get his 15.5
• Kendall Wright (WR) is a 3rd string WR in our league so rolling at number #2 is a hope. 
• Julius Thomas (TE) - Manning TE is a strong position so I go 11+
• Shave Vereen (RB) should be a 10+ against Denver. 

Add that together with 22 to 26 from the Defense and Kicking you get 103 to 110.

There is some grey area here where Paul wins but Nathan is a lot more of a solid pick.  My money is on Nathan but I have to say my heart is with Paul.

Nathan by 5.

Jesus the Moose (9-2) at Voodoo Brown (6-5)
Ben by 12.4

This Joe's last stand.  If he wins this week then he has a chance at the playoffs against Kendall next week. It's the hardest uphill of all of the 6-5 teams.  The problem of course is that Ben is stacked and has a great schedule for this week. Roddy White's performance not withstanding.  Gore (RB) will run all over top Washington.  Megatron (has his own transformer action figure)  and will destroy TB.  Newly acquired Fleener has high hopes.  It's a good game waiting on Ben.

On the other side of the field, Luck (QB) will make hay against the Cards. Zac Stacy (RB) they say will go 2 TDs and yards but I see that an over estimation.  I love Josh Gordon (WR) so I am good with 12.7.  Jimmy Graham (TE) was brilliant.  Ogbonnaya (RB) is not going to pop 12 points.

This is similar to Nathan and Paul.  Joe has a lot of ifs and Ben has solid averages to back up his predictions. I give this to Ben by 7+

Now, in honor of the Bikini Bowl...your moment of Zen. 

Nathan's Nits - Week 11

Only two weeks remain of the CKL's 12th regular season. Playoff hopes are still available for some, although random doses of heartbreak are a certainty at this point of the season. Who will get in and who will kick their dog? Or, for non-pet people, who will throw their phone at their TV and break both?

Let's calm down and focus on the process people. Make the right decisions and you'll be at peace this Sunday afternoon, no matter the results. Control what you can control. You're being very unDude.

Start/Sit Thoughts

Nathan: I tried to pick up Marquise Goodwin in a last second swap for Greg Little, but I was too late. I think he was worth a speculative pickup considering he’ll be the Bills de facto number one receiver against the Jets. Not a good match up, but he should see a volume of targets.

Newest X-Man: Invisible Mechanical Bull.

The speedster blew by Antonio Cromartie and finished with a very nice 6/81/1 line that would've been nice on my bench. I know the Bills are on bye this week, but I think Goodwin is a good flyer/bummer injury fill in for a team looking to win a playoff game or three.

Rookie: bench is so wounded right now. And two DPs on the bench? That sounds about right.

McFadden, Lattimore (decent speculative redshirt, btw), Posluzny, Cobb and Kearse. Dump some of those DP chumps and get something interesting back there Rook. What're you saving those LBs for? THE PLAYOFFS!?

Alan: how did you decide which of your five QBs to start? For the record, I love the QB hoarder spoiler role you’re playing right now. Big ups to the devil horns. I know you don’t really have a choice (unless you dropped one of your QBs for another option), but I also like that you’re straight rolling with Percy.

Juris United (would love to see a soccer scarf for these guys one day) has been on a touch of a hot streak of late, going triple digits in back to back weeks. Part of that blowup was playing Roethlisberger, who shot out of a cannon for a season high 31.8 points. I always liked Roeth the QB (not the dresser, rapist or motorcyclist, obvi) and think he is worth rolling with going forward. I'm sure Percy will also stick in the lineup.

Russ: I’m a touch surprised you’re starting Cam over Foles.  Are you looking at a shootout against New England? Or just expecting Cam’s rushing skills to provide a higher floor? And damn, your bench is more beat up than Rookie’s.

Foles had been white hot while Cam was, well, Cam. High upside, but had just come off a stinker at San Fran. This is why you're where you are this season, Russ. You made the correct play when it would've been totally justifiable to continue to trot out Foles. Then you went and traded Foles for playoff improvement parts. Well done. You're really putting the pieces together in what would now be a not very surprising Cup run.

Paul: Interesting last minute hedge pickup of Brock Osweiler (OZ as we Bronco fans call him). I doubt he’d give you 75% of Manning’s production were he to miss time (which means his ceiling would still be relatively high), but I do like the timing of this pickup. A gimpy Manning against a ferocious KC pass rush could easily yield to OZ taking over in the short short. I don’t love Jeffrey in the tornado zone in Chicago this afternoon (I’m very concerned about Marshall, too), but I don’t see many options on your bench. Maybe a crazy desperation play of McCluster in a match up where the Chiefs might need to air the ball out in a big way? Nah, you’re not quite there yet. I like your bench quite a bit; is that Vereen I see coming back?

Don't have much to add to this spiel but I will say I'm glad the "ferocious KC pass rush" was non-existent last Sunday night. These Sunday Night games be killing my sleep cycle.

Ben: that is a kick azz lineup, bro.

You might have a TE issue to work out, but with your advantages at the other positions, who really cares?

Chad: I like your team a lot today. Could easily see a big time points explosion.

Kinda right, with 103 points. The match ups looked juicy, although I expected more out of Ryan and Morris, and not quite so much out of Brown.

Norris: sad for you that you don’t have anyone to FLEX over Mendenhall. I am now officially cheering for him to score a touchdown for you.

And then he went out there and GOT you a TD. Well done. Too bad he was 12 for 14 otherwise. Yeesh. That's why I dumped his ass. Too bad you're team is, well, not good.

Derrick: any thought of benching Kaep for Alex Smith? Ditto for Pierre Thomas over, well, either of those other RBs (Ridley/FJax).

This is classic tinker toys Nathan coming out of the woodwork. But sometimes my obsessive twiddling can get you results. Smith had to throw the ball more last week against that powerful Broncos O, and he gave you one of the best performances of the season. He threw the ball deep over twice as many times as Manning, and more successfully. Kaep just isn't very good at all right now. He's saving you with his legs, which (trust me I know), doesn't always work. And Thomas would've been better than FJax, but NOT Ridley. Of course, these changes wouldn't have earned a victory, but this is purely an academic diversion.

Loved playing with these but could never make anything out of them. How fitting.

Mark: you don’t have a ton of upside starting, but your depth from 1 to 18 on your squad is very strong. THUNDER BEAR THUMB UP.

Which MBC beer would get Jenna drunk and DTF quickest?

Joe: damn we both really need this one. Graham feels like the decider. All the other match ups are pretty much a wash. And we have crazy bad weather in the midwest potentially screwing everything up (more for me than you, probably). So glad this’ll be over tonight so I can sleep soundly, one way or the other.

Graham having a down day of 4.9 points really helped, no doubt. The weather did screw up Marshall, but that kinda stuff just happens. Ellington, Allen, and Von Miller let you down, too. Gotta win to get in at this point, Joe. I haven't looked at the numbers yet, but I think Jenna might be too many blocks up the street, already leaning in to Mark's hybrid and yelling at Paul on his fixy across the street, negotiating a menu of prices. Apologies to Paul for assuming he rides fixed.

Kendall: I don’t know about Andy Dalton man. Like from a long term perspective. Really like the Chris Ivory play.

Alright Andy: pick six or miracle Hail Mary to A.J.?

Dalton was hot earlier this year, but his true nature seems to be the Rebel Yell running backwards. Its fun and all, but its not running the way its intended and you can't see where you're going. You dropped him like its hot. Where do you stand on him as Cincinnati's QB of the future? Trading for Ivory was baller.

Kirk: chasing points with Rishard Matthews. Hey, you gotta go for it, right?

5.2, that ain't bad. Especially in a win/win.

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Playoff Picture

• Despite my confusion on the smack board, Pink Nightmare is in and has a bye.
• One of Jesus the Moose or The Magic Stick will get the other bye. Ben and Russ could theoritically lose out and Chad win in but Double-O wouldn't be able to overcome the points difference. Chad is out of play for a bye.
• #1 seed is still up for grabs between all three, but Ben has the points (and the hotness) advantage.
• Chad seems to have a big advantage this week against a bye-weekened KAG squad. If he wins, he is in great shape for a playoff spot. He won't have locked it up without some help, but he'll be well on the way.
• If Russ wins and Chad loses, he is going to get a top three seed. If the opposite happens, it'll come down to Week 14 to determine the third seed.
• The rest of the field is a mess. Any of the 6-5 teams (Nathan, Paul, Joe, Kirk) could win out to get to 8-5 and secure a spot. My brain is crisping up just thinking about the scenarios. If I had to post an order of how likely I think they are to get in (assuming Ben, Kendall, Russ and Chad gets spots 1 to 4): 1) Kirk (despite poor Hotness they have Rookie and Derrick to finish out the season); 2) whoever wins the Nathan/Paul showdown this week; 3) whoever loses; 4) Joe, who finishes with Ben and Kendall.
• Crazily, I think all four of these 6-5 teams are playing for one spot, as Mark currently leads the Jenna.
• Who am I kidding, anything can happen. I'll try to get a completely comprehensive look out before next week, when the picture should be coming quickly into focus.

I need a relief in a short short.

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Week 11 Numbers

ALL PLAY TABLE

• Ben and Kendall played switcheroo last week. Didn't see this one coming. Its still either's All Play trophy to win, but Kendall has hurt his chances of winning the Beastly Three.
• Ben has scored less than 100 points only twice. Talk about Hard to Kill.
• The four pack after Russ loosened up a bit. Chad is in the best position for a playoff spot, while Jenna and the next two weeks of matchups will determine the fate of Nathan, Mark, and Paul.
• I belive that Patrick, Joe, and Kirk are all still alive for a postseason berth. I need to make a note to dig up historical playoff makers with sub-.500 all play records.
• Will Derrick and Norris put on a show to stay out of the basement? Is that who gets the Poop Pretzel?

LUCK TABLE

• And here is why we just might get a one of those less than average all-players into the post season: Lady Luck. Kirk and Joe lead the way.
• Derrick and Rookie are the unluckiest teams. That feels wrong when you're also two of the worst teams in the league. Maybe this makes sense though: if you don't score many points, its easier for teams with only slightly more points to beat you. Which is unlucky by the definition of this table. OK, I don't feel so bad for you two now.
• Divisional difference is striking when you consider ORANGE has 33 more all play wins than BLUE.
• Playoff seeds by average wins: 1) Ben 2) Kendall 3) Russ 4) Nathan 5) Chad 6) Mark. That is very close to where we actually are, with only Nathan and Chad swapping seeds.

HOTNESS TABLE

• Can Ben be stopped while he is on this roll?
• Chad deserves to feel comfortable about his spot.
• You can't say Patrick and Joe aren't giving it their all.
• Russ and Mark: pick up the pace. Or does momentum mean nothing in FF?
• Really surprised that Kirk is in the basement. Norris, Alan, and Rookie have picked up their game.

JENNA

• Lots of vaseline, Mark. You're gonna get through this. Is she a generous lover?
• With two weeks to go, Paul is a threat. He hasn't been on this radar only because he has mostly been in the playoff picture.
• I'm guessing Mark is a THUNDER BEAR fan this week, as a Paul loss would mean I stay in the playoff picture, Paul stays out, and scores less points than me. The opposite would put T-BEAR back in play for Jenna which we'd currently lead by a scant 5.6. As has been the mantra for nearly all of Mark's back half of the season: JUST SCORE BABY.
• Not a ton else to see here.

Wednesday FAABnalysis -- 11/20/13

Otherwise known as the shortest FAABnalysis in the history of the Universe.

The CKL trade deadline came and went this morning without a whole lot of fanfare.  Really, we had what I'd consider to be two deadline deals:

TMS traded Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR to OOD
TMS traded Nick Foles, Phi QB to OOD
OOD traded Matt Ryan, Atl QB to TMS
OOD traded Andre Johnson, Hou WR to TMS

Did Chad upgrade his quarterback position?  Yes, probably.  But only for the short term, I'd say.  Foles' schedule down the stretch: bye, ARZ, DET, @MIN, CHI.  The Lions and Vikings games could be pointsplosions that help propel Dublo Daddy into the playoffs and past the first round.  Giving up a white-hot Andre Johnson and bringing back a sputtering Larry Fitzgerald is the rub here.  Ultimately, Russ gave up a backup QB in order to massively upgrade one of his WR positions.  Great deal for the Stick, jury's out for the DOD.

TREX traded Coby Fleener, Ind TE to BEN
BEN traded Heath Miller, Pit TE to TREX
BEN traded Dwayne Bowe, KC WR to TREX

Ben went out and upgraded his tight end position (really his only weak spot) while giving Rookie an outside crack at a semi-decent keeper in Bowe.  A ho-hum deal that I am chomping down sour grapes over (as I was ready to go hard after Fleener, had Rook given me that opportunity).  Whelp, that friendship is over.  You guys want a proper HATE BOWL?  Wait 'til next year.  I'll be back to calling Aaron "a colostomy bag filled with semen," et al.  Fuck you, the Rookie.  Yeah, that's right, bitch.  I just weaponized the article "the."  And that's just the tip of the titanic iceberg I'm going to ride up your ass, you sad sack of paraplegic's feces.

Anyway, it wasn't the Blockbuster Tuesday we've had in years past.  And while I know firsthand that there was frantic and frenetic gchatting and phonecalling this morning, no 11th hour deals were swung.  Still, 22 trades is something to be proud of.  Here's the scoreboard:

Kendall - 7 trades
Joe - 6 trades
Rookie - 6 trades
Ben - 5 trades
Russ - 4 trades
Patrick - 4 trades
Chad - 3 trades
Nathan - 3 trades
Paul - 3 trades
Alan - 2 trades
Norris - 1 trade
Kirk - 0 trades
Mark - 0 trades
Derrick - 0 trades

I only shared that because I knew I'd be at the top.

But remember, from the CKL Charter:

The CKL prides itself on being a trade-happy league.

Anyway, this is FAABnalysis, not TRADEnalysis, so let's get on with it.

Soundtrack:

If you hear Walk of Life or Sultans of Swing, it's guaranteed to be a good day.  You're welcome.  Fucker.


-- 12 claims
-- 4 cash claims
-- $12 total FAAB money spent
-- $3.00 average per cash grab

On to the claims claim...

Mike Glennon -- $5 to Chad
Dropped: Chris Givens
Other Bids: $1 to Patrick, $0 to Ben
Looks like Chadwick is going to a two-QB rotation, with Foles and Glennon.  I bet he now has the longest combined neck of any QB/backup combo in the CKL... by at least a 3:1 ratio.  These two dudes have giraffe necks.  It's freaky.
Grade: B (Glennon was an INT machine at NC State, but he's playing okay for the Bucs and has some juicy matchups ahead)

Yeahbuddy.  Chicks dig Mekaneck.  Because... you know...
THEY CAN STICK HIM INTO THEIR VAGINAS LIKE A DILDO.

Dumpster Diving...

Brad Jones, $3 to Nathan -- He's going to produce and produce HARD down the stretch.  RAWKHARD.

Eric Berry, $3 to Russ -- Yeeeeeeaaaaaah, okay.  I'm only highlighting this because it's tied for the second-biggest claim of the week.  Ordinarily, I'd skip it.  The older the Berry, the sweeter the juice.

Carson Palmer, $1 to Patrick -- I want to break the pact we struck for the Era of Stasis and suggest one rule change for 2014: Carson Palmer is banished from the league.

Look very, very closely.

Joel Dreessen, $0 to Paul -- Paulie caught us (me) napping.  Nice work, Mr. Gilbert.  Good one.

Brandon Pettigrew, $0 to Kendall -- I might need a tight end this week.  'Grew should be good for something north of a goose egg, hopefully.

Terrelle Pryor, $0 to Ben -- Dammit.  Good claim Ben.  How'd I forget that he was dropped?

Best Claims Available on Rebound Friday
-- QB Andy Dalton
-- WR Marquise Goodwin
-- WR Aldrick Robinson
-- WR Ted Ginn
-- TE Mychal Rivera

This ain't a talent pool, it's a dust basin.

Remaining Budgets
Kick Azz Giants -- $46
Pink Nightmare -- $21
The Magic Stick -- $20
Double-O Daddy -- $18
THUNDER BEAR -- $8
The Champeens -- $5
Sic Semper Tyrannis Rex -- $4
Jesus the Moose -- $3
The Sexy Badasses -- $3
Glitterfist Lasersnakes -- $1

Everyone else is SPENT.

Top-10 Biggest Claims of the Season
1) Nick Foles -- $58 to Ben on 10/16/13
2) Willis McGahee -- $55 to Paul on 9/20/13
3) Joseph Randle -- $51 to Norris on 10/16/13
4) Harry Douglas -- $40 to Kendall on 10/9/13
5) Marvin Jones -- $39 to Kirk on 10/30/13
6) Mike James -- $31 to Norris on 10/23/13
7) Brandon Jacobs -- $27 to Patrick on 10/16/13
8) Jason Campbell -- $25 to Mark on 10/30/13
9) Jake Locker -- $22 to Paul on 10/2/13
10) Chris Ogbonnaya -- $21 to Patrick on 10/16/13
10) Felix Jones -- $21 to Rookie on 9/18/13



That's it for this week's edition, but as always, remember...

GOTTA SPEND TO WIN!