Week 13: Playoff Scenarios

Perhaps its recency bias or selective memory, but I can't recall an end of the season playoff picture quite like the one we have heading into the final week of the regular season. Its true that Ben's Jesus the Moose, Kendall's Pink Nightmare, and Russ' The Magic Stick have all punched their tickets to the CKL Championship postseason, but beyond that fact there lies nothing but uncertainty. NOT A SINGLE ONE OF THE PLAYOFF SEEDS HAS BEEN DETERMINED. That's insane. Everything comes down to Week 13. FIVE OUT OF THE SIX GAMES HAVE PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS (sorry Norris/Alan). The possibilities are....mind boggling. I've been sifting through them all morning, and hope to present them to you in a somewhat easy to read/understand format.

Let's start at the top.

#1 Seed

Ben, Kendall and Russ all sit at 9-3. Ben leads Kendall by 35.8 total points and Russ by 74.4. Ben currently has the best shot at the #1 seed due to this lead in points scored. If all three win or all three lose, Ben most likely earns it.

Kendall gets to pick the second round match ups if he wins AND Ben loses AND Russ either loses or wins and fails to make up Kendall's 38.8 point advantage.

Russ' only realistic chance at the top spot is if he wins while Ben and Kendall lose. He could make up those points on Kendall, but it doesn't seem very probable.

#2 Seed

The number one seed scenarios also decide number two. The easiest way to put it is that Kendall gets it IF AND ONLY IF he doesn't get the first seed. This is based on the CKL rule that the top two seeds go to winners of the Orange and Blue divisions. Kendall has already wrapped up the Orange, so he can do no worse than the two seed. 

If Kendall and Russ win while Ben loses, Russ gets the two seed.

If Kendall wins while Russ and Ben lose, Ben gets the two seed.

#3 Seed

The final domino in the top three scenario jumble, whoever hasn't claimed one of the top two spots will get this one. It can only be Ben or Russ. Ben wins, it'll be Russ. Russ wins while Ben loses, it'll be Ben.

#4 Seed

There are some wacky, way out there scenarios for this playoff placement, but the overwhelming likelihood is that the winner of the Nathan/Chad Week 13 game gets number four. Those wacky, way out there scenarios:

• Joe wins and outscores the Nathan/Chad winner by 62.6 (if it's Nathan) or 55.7 (Chad). That kind of scenario would require both Nathan and Chad to post two of their lower scores of the year, while Joe explodes (totally possible, see last week).
• Kirk could also technically get there, but he has an even crazier path. A path so crazy it truly is impossible. He'd have to outscore a Nathan win by 111.4, a Chad win by 104.5, and Joe (if he wins) by 48.8. That ain't happening. But if it does, I'll eat my pants. The old Dickie's with grease stains.

#5 Seed

The fifth seed is truly the shit show of the Week 13 scenarios. Any of SIX TEAMS have a chance to get the fifth seed. A quick breakdown of those teams:

Team	Win-Loss Record	Total Points
THUNDER BEAR	7-5	1215.2
Double-O Daddy	7-5	1208.3
Voodoo Brown	7-5	1152.6
The Sexy Badasses	7-5	1103.8
The Champeens	6-6	1236.5
Barclay Street Bruisers	6-6	1169.7

There are so many permutations that I'm going to attempt to list them by what I consider to be the most to least possible. The assumption for all of these scenarios is that the winner of Nathan/Chad is the four seed.

• If either of Joe/Kirk wins while the other loses, the winner gets the fifth seed. Hey, that's pretty simple.
• If BOTH Joe/Kirk win, Joe gets it so long as Kirk doesn't outscore him by more than 48.8 points.
• If both lose, it gets nutty:
• Mark gets it with a win and not being outscored by the Nathan/Chad loser by 21.3 (Nathan) or 28.2 (Chad). The implications for Jenna get cray cray under this particular scenario too.
• The Nathan/Chad loser gets it if Mark loses OR wins and is outscored by the Nathan/Chad loser by 21.3 (Nathan) or Chad (28.2) AND Paul either loses or wins and fails to outscore them by 45.8 (Nathan) or 38.6 (Chad).
• Paul gets the fifth seed if he wins, and all three of Joe, Kirk, and Mark loses AND he outscores the Nathan/Chad loser by 45.8 (Nathan) or 38.6 (Chad).

I realize this is mostly mental masturbation, but the most likely scenario is that Joe or Kirk get the fifth seed. But one or both of them will have to win to make that possible.

#6 Seed - Jenna!

Ah Jenna, the sexiest of rule changes. Good thing for her rule changes aren't generally considered sexy. Mark has owned her for a majority of the season, and that hasn't changed heading in the ultimate week of the season. 

Based on total points, there are only three reasonable guesses for the Jenna: Mark, Nathan, and Chad. The winner of Nathan/Chad will get in. So its down to Mark and the loser. If Mark somehow earns the fifth seed, the Jenna will go to the loser of the Nathan/Chad contest, unless Paul can overcome his deficits to Nathan and Chad.

More than likely, Mark gets Jenna.

Summary

Ben has the edge for the #1 seed. Kendall and Russ still have a shot at it though. Kendall already has a bye locked up. Ben and Russ are fighting for the other one.

The winner of the Nathan/Chad contest will more than likely be the four seed. Joe and Kirk are in good shape to make a play at the fifth seed, although it'll get bonkers if they both lose. Mark is favored with Jenna, but Nathan and/or Chad could make a last minute play.

Imagine being Mark, wooing Jenna for hours at the bar while she's getting tipsy, even maybe get his hand down her pants, only to see some dweeb like me or Chad roll in and pull the ultimate cock block. He might have to change his team name to Blue Balls.