Nathan's Nits - Week 11

Only two weeks remain of the CKL's 12th regular season. Playoff hopes are still available for some, although random doses of heartbreak are a certainty at this point of the season. Who will get in and who will kick their dog? Or, for non-pet people, who will throw their phone at their TV and break both?

Let's calm down and focus on the process people. Make the right decisions and you'll be at peace this Sunday afternoon, no matter the results. Control what you can control. You're being very unDude.

Start/Sit Thoughts

Nathan: I tried to pick up Marquise Goodwin in a last second swap for Greg Little, but I was too late. I think he was worth a speculative pickup considering he’ll be the Bills de facto number one receiver against the Jets. Not a good match up, but he should see a volume of targets.

Newest X-Man: Invisible Mechanical Bull.

The speedster blew by Antonio Cromartie and finished with a very nice 6/81/1 line that would've been nice on my bench. I know the Bills are on bye this week, but I think Goodwin is a good flyer/bummer injury fill in for a team looking to win a playoff game or three.

Rookie: bench is so wounded right now. And two DPs on the bench? That sounds about right.

McFadden, Lattimore (decent speculative redshirt, btw), Posluzny, Cobb and Kearse. Dump some of those DP chumps and get something interesting back there Rook. What're you saving those LBs for? THE PLAYOFFS!?

Alan: how did you decide which of your five QBs to start? For the record, I love the QB hoarder spoiler role you’re playing right now. Big ups to the devil horns. I know you don’t really have a choice (unless you dropped one of your QBs for another option), but I also like that you’re straight rolling with Percy.

Juris United (would love to see a soccer scarf for these guys one day) has been on a touch of a hot streak of late, going triple digits in back to back weeks. Part of that blowup was playing Roethlisberger, who shot out of a cannon for a season high 31.8 points. I always liked Roeth the QB (not the dresser, rapist or motorcyclist, obvi) and think he is worth rolling with going forward. I'm sure Percy will also stick in the lineup.

Russ: I’m a touch surprised you’re starting Cam over Foles.  Are you looking at a shootout against New England? Or just expecting Cam’s rushing skills to provide a higher floor? And damn, your bench is more beat up than Rookie’s.

Foles had been white hot while Cam was, well, Cam. High upside, but had just come off a stinker at San Fran. This is why you're where you are this season, Russ. You made the correct play when it would've been totally justifiable to continue to trot out Foles. Then you went and traded Foles for playoff improvement parts. Well done. You're really putting the pieces together in what would now be a not very surprising Cup run.

Paul: Interesting last minute hedge pickup of Brock Osweiler (OZ as we Bronco fans call him). I doubt he’d give you 75% of Manning’s production were he to miss time (which means his ceiling would still be relatively high), but I do like the timing of this pickup. A gimpy Manning against a ferocious KC pass rush could easily yield to OZ taking over in the short short. I don’t love Jeffrey in the tornado zone in Chicago this afternoon (I’m very concerned about Marshall, too), but I don’t see many options on your bench. Maybe a crazy desperation play of McCluster in a match up where the Chiefs might need to air the ball out in a big way? Nah, you’re not quite there yet. I like your bench quite a bit; is that Vereen I see coming back?

Don't have much to add to this spiel but I will say I'm glad the "ferocious KC pass rush" was non-existent last Sunday night. These Sunday Night games be killing my sleep cycle.

Ben: that is a kick azz lineup, bro.

You might have a TE issue to work out, but with your advantages at the other positions, who really cares?

Chad: I like your team a lot today. Could easily see a big time points explosion.

Kinda right, with 103 points. The match ups looked juicy, although I expected more out of Ryan and Morris, and not quite so much out of Brown.

Norris: sad for you that you don’t have anyone to FLEX over Mendenhall. I am now officially cheering for him to score a touchdown for you.

And then he went out there and GOT you a TD. Well done. Too bad he was 12 for 14 otherwise. Yeesh. That's why I dumped his ass. Too bad you're team is, well, not good.

Derrick: any thought of benching Kaep for Alex Smith? Ditto for Pierre Thomas over, well, either of those other RBs (Ridley/FJax).

This is classic tinker toys Nathan coming out of the woodwork. But sometimes my obsessive twiddling can get you results. Smith had to throw the ball more last week against that powerful Broncos O, and he gave you one of the best performances of the season. He threw the ball deep over twice as many times as Manning, and more successfully. Kaep just isn't very good at all right now. He's saving you with his legs, which (trust me I know), doesn't always work. And Thomas would've been better than FJax, but NOT Ridley. Of course, these changes wouldn't have earned a victory, but this is purely an academic diversion.

Loved playing with these but could never make anything out of them. How fitting.

Mark: you don’t have a ton of upside starting, but your depth from 1 to 18 on your squad is very strong. THUNDER BEAR THUMB UP.

Which MBC beer would get Jenna drunk and DTF quickest?

Joe: damn we both really need this one. Graham feels like the decider. All the other match ups are pretty much a wash. And we have crazy bad weather in the midwest potentially screwing everything up (more for me than you, probably). So glad this’ll be over tonight so I can sleep soundly, one way or the other.

Graham having a down day of 4.9 points really helped, no doubt. The weather did screw up Marshall, but that kinda stuff just happens. Ellington, Allen, and Von Miller let you down, too. Gotta win to get in at this point, Joe. I haven't looked at the numbers yet, but I think Jenna might be too many blocks up the street, already leaning in to Mark's hybrid and yelling at Paul on his fixy across the street, negotiating a menu of prices. Apologies to Paul for assuming he rides fixed.

Kendall: I don’t know about Andy Dalton man. Like from a long term perspective. Really like the Chris Ivory play.

Alright Andy: pick six or miracle Hail Mary to A.J.?

Dalton was hot earlier this year, but his true nature seems to be the Rebel Yell running backwards. Its fun and all, but its not running the way its intended and you can't see where you're going. You dropped him like its hot. Where do you stand on him as Cincinnati's QB of the future? Trading for Ivory was baller.

Kirk: chasing points with Rishard Matthews. Hey, you gotta go for it, right?

5.2, that ain't bad. Especially in a win/win.

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Playoff Picture

• Despite my confusion on the smack board, Pink Nightmare is in and has a bye.
• One of Jesus the Moose or The Magic Stick will get the other bye. Ben and Russ could theoritically lose out and Chad win in but Double-O wouldn't be able to overcome the points difference. Chad is out of play for a bye.
• #1 seed is still up for grabs between all three, but Ben has the points (and the hotness) advantage.
• Chad seems to have a big advantage this week against a bye-weekened KAG squad. If he wins, he is in great shape for a playoff spot. He won't have locked it up without some help, but he'll be well on the way.
• If Russ wins and Chad loses, he is going to get a top three seed. If the opposite happens, it'll come down to Week 14 to determine the third seed.
• The rest of the field is a mess. Any of the 6-5 teams (Nathan, Paul, Joe, Kirk) could win out to get to 8-5 and secure a spot. My brain is crisping up just thinking about the scenarios. If I had to post an order of how likely I think they are to get in (assuming Ben, Kendall, Russ and Chad gets spots 1 to 4): 1) Kirk (despite poor Hotness they have Rookie and Derrick to finish out the season); 2) whoever wins the Nathan/Paul showdown this week; 3) whoever loses; 4) Joe, who finishes with Ben and Kendall.
• Crazily, I think all four of these 6-5 teams are playing for one spot, as Mark currently leads the Jenna.
• Who am I kidding, anything can happen. I'll try to get a completely comprehensive look out before next week, when the picture should be coming quickly into focus.

I need a relief in a short short.

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Week 11 Numbers

ALL PLAY TABLE

• Ben and Kendall played switcheroo last week. Didn't see this one coming. Its still either's All Play trophy to win, but Kendall has hurt his chances of winning the Beastly Three.
• Ben has scored less than 100 points only twice. Talk about Hard to Kill.
• The four pack after Russ loosened up a bit. Chad is in the best position for a playoff spot, while Jenna and the next two weeks of matchups will determine the fate of Nathan, Mark, and Paul.
• I belive that Patrick, Joe, and Kirk are all still alive for a postseason berth. I need to make a note to dig up historical playoff makers with sub-.500 all play records.
• Will Derrick and Norris put on a show to stay out of the basement? Is that who gets the Poop Pretzel?

LUCK TABLE

• And here is why we just might get a one of those less than average all-players into the post season: Lady Luck. Kirk and Joe lead the way.
• Derrick and Rookie are the unluckiest teams. That feels wrong when you're also two of the worst teams in the league. Maybe this makes sense though: if you don't score many points, its easier for teams with only slightly more points to beat you. Which is unlucky by the definition of this table. OK, I don't feel so bad for you two now.
• Divisional difference is striking when you consider ORANGE has 33 more all play wins than BLUE.
• Playoff seeds by average wins: 1) Ben 2) Kendall 3) Russ 4) Nathan 5) Chad 6) Mark. That is very close to where we actually are, with only Nathan and Chad swapping seeds.

HOTNESS TABLE

• Can Ben be stopped while he is on this roll?
• Chad deserves to feel comfortable about his spot.
• You can't say Patrick and Joe aren't giving it their all.
• Russ and Mark: pick up the pace. Or does momentum mean nothing in FF?
• Really surprised that Kirk is in the basement. Norris, Alan, and Rookie have picked up their game.

JENNA

• Lots of vaseline, Mark. You're gonna get through this. Is she a generous lover?
• With two weeks to go, Paul is a threat. He hasn't been on this radar only because he has mostly been in the playoff picture.
• I'm guessing Mark is a THUNDER BEAR fan this week, as a Paul loss would mean I stay in the playoff picture, Paul stays out, and scores less points than me. The opposite would put T-BEAR back in play for Jenna which we'd currently lead by a scant 5.6. As has been the mantra for nearly all of Mark's back half of the season: JUST SCORE BABY.
• Not a ton else to see here.