Week 8 - CKL Predictions & Promises: The Downward Spiral

Welcome to the downward spiral with half of the season behind us and half of the season in front. Last week, Ben and I were spot on with the exception of me missing the Sanford brothers game. Fucking Rookie screws me again. However, I want to pat myself on the back for picking Chad over Joe, and I give Ben a hardy well done for the Patrick pick over Norris. Ben improves to 56%, and I creep up to %64.

Penguins at Nightmare: Calculated Risk
ESPN Gameline: Norris 104.6 - Nightmare 92.6

The Penguins have a lot of things going for them. The top third of the team (QB, 1RB, & 1 WR) are solid with good match-ups. Tom Brady will score a bazillion (25+) points against the Rams, Reggie Bush will pick-up 15+ against the Jets, and the Falcons will ruin the Eagles with Julio Jones adding his 15+ to the Penguins. Top Third could pull down 55+

The second third (2WR, TE, Flex) is a little iffy. Jared Cook will have to make hay against the Colts. Malcolm Floyd has the Browns so good match-up there, but Brandon Gibson is the question mark. Call me bias but I don’t believe Gibson breaks 10 points against NE, despite their inability to stop the pass (averaging 31.4 points per game to the opposing team’s WRs). 2nd Third: 30

The 3rd third is the Pat’s kicker which should be a good day of 7+ against the Rams in a score fest. William Moore (Atl S) is back from bye and should do well against the Eagles. Norris doesn't have JJ Watt to rely on for a dozen points (bye week) so that will hurt. James Laurinaitis (Stl LB) is trying to kill Tom Brady but I don’t see it. 3rd Third: 24 points.

The Nightmare is feeling the bye week blues with Arian Foster and A.J. Green on vacation.

That means a weak 1st Third, with Eli Manning against Dallas, newly acquired Pierre Thomas faces Denver, and Brandon LaFell at Chicago. I’ll be hopeful and give 30 points, but that is a stretch.

The 2nd Third is a little more stable. Reggie Wayne faces the Titans, Tony Gonzalez at Philly, and Dustin Keller faces the Dolphins. I think Gonzalez is under predicted and Keller over predicted so let’s wash it out at 20+ combined and 15+ for Wayne, for 35 points total.

The 3rd Third is Jerod Mayo for 10ish against the Rams, Justin Smith maybe 5ish at Arizona, Mark Barron I don’t know so I will go with the average 7, and the Saints kicker should get overtime against Denver for 10+. Total that out for 32

So add it up and Kendall 97, Norris 109.

There is a lot of positive wildcard in Kendall’s team this week but too much to all hit at once, so Norris gets the win and Kendall takes the loss he had calculated taking back in July. Then he cranks up the diesel and plows through the rest of the season.

Bruisers at Giants: Southern Brothers
ESPN Gameline: Paul 115.6 - Giants 98.1

Paul has a bit of the bye week blues going on with Ray Rice on vacation, but things are clicking for the Bruisers.

1st Third (QB, 1RB, 1WR): Andrew Luck is at Tennessee and this should be a fine day for the Colts - 18+. Stevan Ridley faces the Rams 12+, and Jeremy Maclin should get a boost from Michael Vick trying to hammer the Eagles 12+. 42+ Total.and I feel that is conservative.

2nd Third (2WR, TE, Flex): Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb and the resurging Packers face the Jags. I want Aaron Rodgers to pass all day long, so I am bullish on these guys at 30+. The Vikings-Bucs game has me puzzled this week so my predictions have been running safe for all players concerned. Even so I believe Kyle Rudolph will score a TD and level out at 10ish.

3rd Third (IDPs, Kicker): Kurt Coleman (Phi, S) is coming off a bye and playing the Falcons. I see a good day for him at 7. Calais Campbell (Ari, DE) is average playing the 9ers so 3-5, and Chad Greenway (Min LB) has a Tampa Bay. I am going average again because I don’t know how to call this game either way. Paul has the Giants Kicker at Dallas so a 10+ bump from him gives you a total of around 30.

Doc has a lot of red on his team this week, but everybody should play.

1st Third (QB, 1RB, 1WR): Phillip Rivers will have a field day against the Browns. Ahmad Bradshaw does well against the Cowboys historically. My fear with him is that the Cowboys make him suffer for his sins and he ends up out for a couple of weeks. Wes Welker will have a nice day against the Rams. Total that up to 50+ which I again think is conservative.

2nd Third (2WR, TE, Flex): Chris Johnson is a wildcard every time he plays. He should have a great day against the Colts, but I am playing close to the chest and giving him 10 points. Delanie Walker is a Hail Mary against Arizona, so I am going combine his number with Jeremy Kerley and say they pull out 12 points combined.

3rd Third (IDPs, Kicker): Sebastian Janikowski is kicking in Kansas City so mark him down for 7+. Patrick Peterson (Ari, CB) will probably do well this week against the 49ers - 7+. Jared Allen (Min, DE) falls into my Bucs-Viking rule of averages - 5. K.J. Wright (Sea, LB) is worth 7 points. I’ll stretch and make it all 20.

Paul 112 - Doc 92.  I am low balling Doc here because I don’t trust Chris Johnson.  However Johnson would have to be 25+ to make this interesting and I don’t see it.

Stick at Moose: Hate and Love
ESPN Gameline - Russ 86.4 - Ben 121.3

I almost tripled the points scored by Russ last week (128.5 to 46.8).  This will now be known as the Tripler.  I did get the Doubler, but he full tripler would have been nice. Being 2-5 that felt fucking good.

So with that in mind, let me run down the Stick

1st Third (QB, 1RB, 1WR): I’m a Cutler hater, but against Carolina there is not much to hate. I could see 15+.  McCoy and Fitzgerald are the money shots though this week.  Fitzgerald is taking on the 49ers who have a solid pass defense. Still I see Fitzgerald picking up a TD and yards in a solid performance 12+.  The Atlanta - Philly game I am predicting as big so I am a believer in the ESPN 18+ prediction for LeSean McCoy.  

2nd Third (2WR, TE, Flex): Russ has a lot of stretchy options this week that I am sure Russ is glad to have and completely fucked on knowing who to play.  Current line-up is Vick Ballard (Ind RB), Martellus Bennett (NYG TE), and Nate Washington (Ten WR).  Ballard is an iffy 3-15 point bet.  Bennett is a solid 5.  Washington against Indy could be huge (12+), or completely Nate Washington horrible.  I think combined this lineup is 18 points.  

However waiting in the wings is Trent Richardson (Cle RB) who is coming back from a hip injury. If he is good to go then there is possibility of 10+. Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oak WR) is playing the Chiefs and could possibly be good for 10. And then Greg Little (Cle WR) could be an excellent play against the Chargers who have given up 85 fantasy points and 7 seven TDs to the Saints and Broncos in the last 2 weeks (Thanks ESPN).

3rd Third (IDPs, Kicker):  Russ has been trying upgrade his IDPs with the addition of Joe Haden (Cle CB) last week, and Rob Ninkovich (NE LB/DE) this week.  I have Rob Ninkovich targeted this week for my team so I respect the pick.  Haden is a gamble but then so is every Cleveland player.  Navorro Bowman (SF, LB) has been the backbone of the Stick Defense and he should be good to go and on the field a lot this weekend against the Cardinals. Alex Henery (Phi K) I think is better than the 2 points that ESPN is predicting, but I’m not going overboard on him either.  25 points is my total for this crew.

And then there was my beloved Moose

1st Third (QB, 1RB, 1WR): Drew Brees, Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson...fucking nice.  Megatron does face the Seahawks’ pass offense which could be a problem for other WRs, but not a fucking transformer.  Jamaal Charles faces Oakland, and Drew Brees will be gun slinging with Peyton “League MVP” Manning.  55+ is my conservative guess.   

2nd Third (2WR, TE, Flex): Marshawn Lynch, James Jones, Greg Oslen...well 2 out of 3 ain’t bad.  So that will be 30 points.

3rd Third (IDPs, Kicker): Clay Matthews has not been a factor for the last few weeks, but I like him against the Jags.  Elvis will get it done against the Saints.  Ronde “yeah I still play football” Barber gets the Hoo love this week against the Vikings. And Jason Hason should be called on a few times against the Seahawks.  Total the third to 30+.  

Ben 115+, Russ 88.  Russ can pull things together and stretch to 100, but that is still too Little to get it done.