September 3, 2014

Nathan's 2014 CKL Preview

Welcome to the 13th season of CKL Fantasy Football. We blow a lot of smoke about being the Best Fantasy Football League on the Planet™, but it’s the damn truth. We’re two-plus weeks removed from a fantastic draft weekend, and while there hasn’t been a ton of fantasy noise this preseason, it’s still the perfect time to reflect on the year that was, while looking ahead to the season to come.

Chad took home his first ever CKL cup last year on the back of Nick Foles, Alfred Morris, Eric Decker, and come damn fine IDP wizardry. This was the second season in a row a newcomer took home the cup, after Ben broke through in a big way back in 2012. If Chad is going to become only the second CKL coach to ever win back to back championships, he is going to have to overcome some legitimately stacked teams. No offense to Chad, but his squad had more than a little magic to it last season. I’m not so sure that kind of lightning can hit the same place twice.

Before we move on, though, let’s take a moment to appreciate Chad’s momentous season. Through eight weeks of the 2013 season, Double O Daddy was a solid but thoroughly mediocre 4-4. He stood at 7th in the All-Play table at that time. He had the profile of a team that would be in the mix for one of our six playoff spots, but nothing about his team had the whiff of a Cup taker. And then what? Dude went out lost one game the entire rest of the season.

So what changed? His players blew up. Andre Johnson threw down 40.9 in a Week 9 win. Antonio Brown went for 25.9 in a Week 11 domination of Norris. Eric Decker went for 42.2 and 17.7 in back to back beat downs of my THUNDER BEAR squad. It was particularly painful for BEAR as those two wins straddled the regular season and playoff opening round, sending me back into Jenna’s soft bosomy embrace for consolation. At some point Chad acquired Nick Foles and started playing him, riding him to a highly efficient run through the playoffs. It was so many different players doing it for him, and usually all at the same time. Looking at his 2013 team in the rearview mirror of a 2014 draft, players like Foles, Alfred Morris, Antonio Brown, Decker, and Charles Clay sure as hell don’t look like a winning squad. But they were. And don’t forget Chad’s IDP mastery late in the year. He got between 30 and 40 points out of his IDP/K subsquad throughout the playoffs. Basically, Chad got every last drop of juice out of his players, and the Cup was his reward.

Lesson learned, yet again: all you have to do is get to the playoffs and get hot at the right time. Who will manage that task in 2014? Thought you’d never ask.

  1. Jesus the Moose - Ben Bledsoe; Any FF yahoo rolling with Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson, and Marshawn Lynch would be a favorite in an eight team league. In the 14-squad CKL behemoth, Ben has a decisive edge. I didn’t love Ben’s draft, but his core, plus upside additions of Pierre Thomas and Knowshon Moreno, plus steady veteran contributions from Jason Witten, should prove more than enough to land Coach Bledsoe in the CKL playoffs for the third straight year.

  1. The Champeens - Mark Fulton; Mark has taken a little shit for his wide receiver approach in the draft. I think it’s fair, since he seems to have fallen in love with small, shifty, quick slot machines. But if his wideout position is merely average, the rest of his squad will allow him to dominate. The Forte/Lacy running back combo is obscene. It should be illegal. But we can only doff our caps to Mr. Fulton, while hoping beyond hope that Matthew Stafford regresses and his wide receivers put up lots of 3 for 34 stat lines. Obviously, I don’t see that happening. It’s a little under the radar at times, but Mark has the clear profile of the second best coach the league has ever seen. Think about that.

  1. Blackpool Penguins - Norris Bunn; Norris is still living large off of his dynasty style approach to the expansion draft back in 2011. This appears to be the year that his plan comes to ultimate fruition. First of all, his has the best set of receivers in the league, and it ain’t close. Julio Jones and A.J. Green are flat out studs. I love these symmetry of these two. They’re the consensus best receivers from the same draft class. They’re both top 5 dynasty fantasy football assets. They can both win games for Norris alone. Then, Andrew Luck slid on draft day, where Norris greedily gobbled him up. I’m not as high on Luck as some, but it was clear that Mr. Bunn got some ridiculous value at a position of need. There was a reason Kendall was scared Luck might fall. If Chris Johnson looks like even 75% of his former self, we’re screwed.

  1. Pink Nightmare - Kendall Howell; only a damned fool would ever even consider the possibility of the Nightmare not being in the playoff and Cup chase. Four rings on his pimp hand (although none since 2011---DROUGHT), Kendall stirs his bitches brew of an FF concoction with the spoon of unmatched effort and the elixir of time-honed experience. I don’t even know who is on his team. It doesn’t matter. Write him into the postseason. Seriously, get a pen and mark it eight, Smoke. Yes, I said PEN.

  1. The Magic Stick - Russell Hudgins; this feels a little low given Russ’ breakthrough 2013 campaign. But I have just enough questions about Cam’s health (and surrounding talent) and Rashad Jennings to put him down a few pegs. His top end WRs and depth are very impressive, though. This team is good, but as is the case with most of us in this 14 team megalopolis of a league, will suffer greatly with only a few ill-timed injuries or underperformances.

  1. The Sexy Badasses - Kirk Whitt; Aaron Rodgers. Adrian Peterson. Toby Gerhadt. Keenan Allen. I love the top end of this squad. But Kirk has a weird mix of being snakebite (Wes Welker MAKE IT RAIN) and making underwhelming moves between the draft and losing in the playoffs. I just don’t trust Kirk with all these gems. Is that wrong of me to say? Probably. So prove me wrong, Kirk.

  1. Barclay Street Bruisers - Paul Gilbert; one playoff appearance in the last six seasons has to be a bitter pill for a proud Founding Father. Yet there is cause for hope, as there lots of young, sexy badasses on the Bruisers roster. Trading Peyton Manning for Andre Ellington is clearly a move to get younger, but it’s also clearly a short term hit. Dalton and Flacco sounds more like a shitty TNT buddy cop dramedy than a Fantasy QB platoon you’d be proud to bring home to mom. Paul has to hope his youth (and upside) at the core RB/WR positions cover for this deficiency. Ball/Ellington/Jeffrey/Cooks/Hunter/Orange Julius would be a stone cold stud dynasty roster, and they’ll produce highlight weeks this year. But it’ll be a bumpy path without more stability at QB.

  1. Glitterfist Lasersnakes - Patrick Adair; Kendall hinted at it in the Week 1 smack boards, but Patricks finally appears to have a legitimate crew to roll out every week. With only a few questions answered yes, this could be a seriously scary squad. Foster, Tate, Andre Johnson, Joique Bell on the bench….geez they have upside, floors, shit a whole house covered. But can Patrick put the nails in the right place and remember to run the plumbing and electric before installing the drywall? I think...maybe. Hence the ranking.

  1. Voodoo Brown - Joe Sellers; I like how Joe doubled up on QBs early on in the draft. I think that strategy will work well for him, although I expect Cutler to get more starts than RG3. There is also the potential for this position to frustrate, unless he trades one of them away (hint hint). Martin and Stacy aren’t a sexy RB corps, but they should be above average. I don’t like his receivers, AT ALL, but Jimmy Graham at TE helps a bit. Joe’s dedication will always keep him close to the postseason, but there is work yet to be done here.

  1. Sexy Panthers - Rookie; I know the pains of never truly knowing your team name until serendipity strikes and you have the glory, the majesty that is THUNDER BEAR, forevermore. But c’mon, Rook. Nth Degree. It’s...so….you! Revert and thrive. Or, trade for Peyton Manning and thrive. As Patrick can attest, Manning the Elder is no playoff-lock by himself. Cobb and Bell should help, but the rest of the roster is unproven, mostly young, upside. Which just won’t work. He needs more reliable production. Of course there is a chance here, but not a good one.

  1. The Hezballers - Yado Yakub; Alan didn’t leave the old Juris United cupboard completely bare (looking at you, Demaryius), but Yado didn’t add enough in the draft to overcome huge roster holes. Romo should be a serviceable, but low end QB. Spiller and Rice are RB2s at best, in my book. Harvin gives the worst fantasy blue balls, ever. All suck, no pop. Not the way I want to play the game. Obviously, the jury is out on Yado and what he is going to bring to the league. I’m hoping he’ll throw down on the message board, because the team doesn’t look to acquit him well this season.

  1. THUNDER BEAR; Nathan Sanford; I know I don’t have a QB, y’all. Yes, it’s a problem. And yes, it’s cool to have great WRs but they’re too spotty to overcome Bush losing touches in Detroit. I like my depth and I like Cameron to have a Top 4 year at TE, but there simply isn’t enough here to get me past the eleven teams ahead of me. I’ll tinker and toil my way up this list throughout the season, though.

  1. Double O Daddy - Chad Proctor; This is harsh, man. I never like Chad’s teams. And then he goes and wins a Cup last year with this rag tag collection of, well, nothing special. OK, so his wide receivers have some promise, with Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders leading the way. And now with Welker’s suspension, Chad’s reach for Sanders looks eerily prescient. Morris is solid, but could be hurt if RG3 can’t pick up Jay Gruden’s offense in a hurry. I’m not a believe in Foles. But I AM a believer in Chip Kelly. So I guess that’s a wash. Overall, I see way too much IDP wizardry required to make another run at the cup. Oh well, at least you have one.

  1. Kick Azz Giants - Derrick Fleming; A collective seven wins and 19 losses over the past two seasons has put this once proud franchise in the basement of the league. Becky did well as a fill-in drafter, but there just isn’t much here. I think it would be hard to go 2-11 again, but 4 or 5 wins might be KAG’s ceiling.

4 comments:

  1. You know you're in trouble at quarterback when the guy with Carson Palmer, Geno Smith, and Blake Bortles can throw shade in your direction and there ain't shit you can say about it. Totally valid take on the BSB, Nate. I'm too lazy to do the math, but I've probably got the yougest team / least amount of avg NFL experience. Gonna have to hit that trading block. Or we could just make this a full-on dynasty league....?!?....

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  2. Also, Moose too high, O-Dad too low. And I really like the Stick this year. I'm bully on Torrey Smith this year, and Russ did a great job backing up Cam with Wilson. Hey Russ, once my season's in the crapper you can expect plenty of offers involving Julius!

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  3. Great stuff, Nathan! Thanks!

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