I've run out of time on getting my annual season preview out before the start of the NFL season. I'm off to Orlando for a week-plus of princess stuff with the fam. I'll be back with my full preview sometime between Week 1 and Week 2. Lame, I know, but better than nothing.
To whet your appetities, something new this year.
CKL PLAYOFF ODDS
These are the odds a particular team will make the CKL playoffs based on three categories of in-season management: great, good, and average.
We're referencing the draft a lot, so I thought it'd be a good idea to put it on out there in all it's raw, stark naked glory for the world to see. No commentary, just the draft transcript. Here goes...
KEEPERS:
Norris -- C.J. Spiller, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Dion Lewis (redshirt)
Ben -- Drew Brees, Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson (via trade)
Patrick -- Peyton Manning, Darren Sproles, Fred Jackson, Andy Dalton (redshirt)
Russ -- DeMarco Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Rob Gronkowski
Nathan -- Steven Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Jacquizz Rodgers (redshirt)
Paul -- Ray Rice, Stevan Ridley, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith (redshirt)
Chad -- Matt Ryan, Darren McFadden, Vincent Jackson, Jermichael Finley (via trade), Mikel Leshoure (redshirt)
Joe -- Matt Stafford, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte
Mark -- Michael Vick, Mike Wallace, Brandon Lloyd, Christian Ponder (redshirt)
Derrick -- Chris Johnson, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings
Kirk -- Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Hakeem Nicks
Rookie -- Cam Newton, Michael Turner, Victor Cruz
Kendall -- Arian Foster, A.J. Green (via trade), Jimmy Graham
Alan -- Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Mathews, Dwayne Bowe, Kendall Hunter (redshirt)
ELEVENTH ROUND:
#1 Norris -- Barnard Pollard #2 Ben -- Alshon Jeffery #3 Patrick -- Stephen Hill #4 Russ -- Eric Weddle #5 Nathan -- Heath Miller #6 Paul -- Santana Moss #7 Chad -- Brandon Weeden #8 Joe -- Tim Tebow #9 Mark -- Charles Tillman #10 Derrick -- David Nelson #11 Kirk -- Morgan Burnett #12 Rookie -- Sidney Rice #13 Kendall -- Luke Kuechly #14 Alan -- Curtis Lofton
TWELFTH ROUND: #1 Alan -- Roman Harper #2 Kendall -- Mark Barron #3 Rookie -- Damian Williams #4 Kirk -- Lamar Miller #5 Derrick -- Patrick Peterson #6 Mark -- Justin Tuck #7 Joe -- Terrell Owens #8 Chad -- Kevin Walter #9 Paul -- Aldon Smith #10 Nathan -- Steve Smith, STL #11 Russ -- Bernard Pierce #12 Patrick -- David Akers #13 Ben -- Elvis Dumervil #14 Norris -- Golden Tate
THIRTEENTH ROUND: #1 Norris -- J.J. Watt #2 Ben -- Pat Chung #3 Patrick -- Bernard Scott #4 Russ -- Cliff Avril #5 Nathan -- Bilal Powell #6 Paul -- Jerome "Airwolf" Simpson #7 Chad -- Brandon Jacobs #8 Joe -- Cameron Wake #9 Mark -- Mason Crosby #10 Derrick -- Sebastian Janikowski #11 Kirk -- Garrett Hartley #12 Rookie -- Jahvid Best #13 Kendall -- Vick Ballard #14 Alan -- Rob Bironas
FOURTEENTH ROUND: #1 Alan -- pick forfeit due to kept redshirt #2 Kendall -- Keshawn Martin #3 Nathan -- Matt Cassel (via trade) #4 Kirk -- Jason Babin #5 Derrick -- D.J. Ware #6 Mark -- pick forfeit due to kept redshirt #7 Joe -- Ronnie Brown #8 Chad -- pick forfeit due to kept redshirt #9 Paul -- pick forfeit due to kept redshirt #10 Nathan -- pick forfeit due to kept redshirt #11 Russ -- Alex Henery #12 Patrick -- pick forfeit due to kept redshirt #13 Ben -- Joe McKnight #14 Norris -- pick forfeit due to kept redshirt
FIFTEENTH ROUND - REDSHIRT ROUND: #1 Norris -- John Skelton #2 Ben -- Kevin Kolb #3 Patrick -- Mohamed Sanu #4 Russ -- Phillip Tanner #5 Chad -- Chris Givens (via trade) #6 Paul -- Chris Rainey #7 Nathan -- Josh Gordon (via trade) #8 Joe -- Ryan Broyles #9 Mark -- Ryan Tannehill #10 Derrick -- Boom Herron #11 Kirk -- Mike Tolbert #12 Rookie -- Russell Wilson #13 Kendall -- Nick Toon #14 Alan -- Javon Ringer
For our readers who aren't CKLers: the last round of the draft (15th round) is designated as the "Redshirt Round." Players selected in this round are an optional fourth keeper for each league owner, provided they are neither started nor dropped during the course of the season. Its a fun little twist, especially for those teams who feel they're a year or two away from contending (like THUNDER BEAR, perennially).
The "Redshirt Round" has produced mixed results in the four or so seasons we've had it. Gems like Marshawn Lynch two years ago are the exception rather than the rule. Typically around half of the league owners dump their redshirt early in the season to improve roster flexibility. So its not a make or break feature in the CKL, but I personally find it very compelling.
In Game Skittles!? REALLY!?
To maximize the potential benefit of the "Redshirt Round", you need to take the time during your draft prep to make a separate list for exclusive use in the 15th round. It should be long. Odds are several (if not most) of the guys you put on that list will get drafted before the 15th. I recommend focusing on rookie and second year players who have talent but are held back by their current situation. Perhaps someone buried on the depth chart behind an aging star? Another option is to look at studs that were injured in the off-season and/or early preseason that might miss most or all of the year, making them otherwise undraftable. Sit them on your bench for a year and reap the rewards. That's what Chad did with Skittles.
The key is to be prepared. That way, next year's "Redshirt Round" won't start with back-to-back John Skelton and Kevin Kolb picks. Yuck.
LOLZ!!!1! can you believe those Schmoes took us back-to-back?
Time to set the mood: two rounds of the 2012 CKL draft have passed. More than likely everyone has five to seven players on their squads at this point (depending on trades and 2011 redshirt status). One team, and only one team, still needs a quarterback. Here are two scenarios for filling that need.
Scenario 1:
Round 3 - QB Jay Cutler
Round 4 - WR Darrius Hayward-Bey
Round 5 - RB Daniel Thomas
Scenario 2:
Round 3 - WR Steve Smith (Carolina)
Round 4 - WR Darrius Hayward-Bey
Round 5 - QB Jay Cutler
Which scenario is tastier? To put a point on it: if someone offered you WR Steve Smith (Carolina) for RB Daniel Thomas, how many milliseconds would it take for you to click the accept button?
Unfortunately for our man Russ, he went with Scenario 1. Why? Was he not keeping track of who had quarterbacks and who didn't? I don't believe so, as he didn't take a QB at 2.11, instead taking WR Marques Colston (a savvy move, knowing that Patrick, Ben and Norris all already had QBs but likely would draft a WR or two---which they did).
So Russ must have been scared that someone else would take Jay Cutler before his fourth round pick at 4.11. I guess that's arguable, but not if you have reviewed the CKL's history of drafting quarterbacks. Given that no one drafted a second quarterback until Kendall took Josh Freeman at 6.02, it would appear that Russ left some value on the table.
We've all got a system for forecasting the outcome of a football game. I tend to check Vegas odds. Mark predicts the Steelers to go 16-0 every single year. I hear Kendall can read the outcome of a game in the intestines of woodland creatures.
There are, however, some scientific models out there that can help to identify teams that either under- or overachieve in any given year.
The four concepts below are some of the core underlying indicators of team performance. Historically, they've each shown great significance in projecting a team's performance into the future, so keep them in mind as you prepare for the 2012 season.
Armed with this kind of info, you might think twice about betting on another unbelievable season from Aaron Rogers, and might, just might consider running some Dolphins.
Kendall
Howell is a goddamned CHAMPION and that’s all there is to it. He’s got
that 4-chip swag everywhere he goes. You guys should have seen that
Hoakie manager of Waffle House stumbling all over himself last weekend
as he feebly tried to impress us with his business cards for free
waffles. That was all because Kendall was there. The dude has won 4
cups and probably could have won a couple more. He's humble about it all, but you gotta respect how he carries it.
Now,
as he enters his “One for The Thumb” season, Kendall has assembled a
fearsome set of keepers - and he traded away Calvin Johnson and he didn’t even keep Tom Brady!
I’m gonna get off his nuts now, but I wanted to acknowledge his recent
piece, How to Win the Cup - A Comprehensive Guide, Kendall's greatest gift to fantasy football. This is a must read
for anyone seriously trying to win at this confounded obsession of ours. For the rest of you, I present: How to Be Irrelevant for A Decade (and counting!) - A Comprehensive Guide. Disclaimer: This will be nowhere near as thoughtful or well written as Kendall’s piece!
Dale Jr’s Do’s ‘n’ Dont’s
-- DON’T attend the live draft. You're too cool for that sausage-fest, ya corncob! --
DO draft online and spend most of your time boasting about your level of inebriation, looking at pornhub, and bitching about how long
everyone else is taking. -- DO make ESPN your go-to spot for all player research and analysis. Those guys never miss. -- DON’T be afraid to draft a defense in the 3rd round. -- DO draft the player you think you should take rather than the player you want. -- DRUNK TRADE OFFERS!!!! -- DO draft Mike Shanahan running backs. -- DO value your players so highly you can never make trades. -- DO change your team name almost every season. It's hilarious! -- DON’T reach out to other owners or try to get to know them. -- DO lock-in your lineup on Friday. That guy who’s questionable? Yeah he’s gonna play. --
DON’T worry about late Sunday scratches. It’s not like a player has
ever been benched for missing curfew on Saturday night because he was
getting blown by a groupie. Nah, that never happens. -- DO fall in love with rookie running backs and receivers. -- DON’T worry about finding that franchise quarterback. -- DO play in a bunch of other leagues. -- DON’T post on the message boards (lots of queers on there!). -- DO reach for that wide receiver from the Ravens. Can't miss! -- DO reach for that running back from the Packers. Ditto! -- Is Brett Favre still on the board? -- No? What about Mark Sanchez? -- Matt Leinart? -- Ok I'll take Donovan McNabb. -- DO start two receivers from the same team. -- DON’T make trades. That’s scary! -- DO stockpile backup running backs. -- DO HANDCUFF EVERYONE. -- DO roster a lot of players from your favorite team. -- DO cash-in your chips early, trade for the future, and "play for next year." -- DON’T trust your gut. -- DO spend your FAAB money like Warren Sapp spent his real money.
and finally...
-- DON’T suck, or you’ll go the way of John, Joe-Joe, Tom, and bsteele2die4 (RIP, my brothers!). So long, suckers, you can’t be the CKL’s reigning king of irrelevance if you’re no longer in the league!!!
I don't mean for this to be cocky or condescending, just thought it'd be fun to write and maybe enjoyable to read. All of this stuff has just sort of become second-nature to me, almost instinctive. I don't know, maybe it's useful to someone else? And maybe it's applicable to other leagues? Proceed with the mind dump...
Here is some of the wisdom I've honed and some of the fortune-cookie logic I've accumulated through winning the CKL Cup four different times:
-- Draft the players you want, not the players you feel like you need, and especially not the players your value board tells you to draft.
-- A "steal" is a lie. You either drafted a player at the right spot, or you got caught with the hot potato. The guy slid down the draft board for a reason.
-- Reach for draft picks. Draft players you really like earlier than you feel like you should. Do it often. It's good for the soul.
-- Handcuffs are for suckers... most of the time.
-- Think of your players as "assets;" as "stocks." The points they generate matter a lot, but almost as important is the public perception of the player. As in, how much would someone give up to get him? That's the key to everything - perceived value. To that end, it's always worth it to go for the sexy players over the solid or reliable (read: boring) ones.
-- ATTEND THE LIVE DRAFT!
-- It's important to be cool with all of the other coaches in the league, if you can swing it. Try to talk to them about stuff other than fantasy football, and build a friendship. To me, the CKL is a bunch of friends, a brotherhood, a family. That's what makes for good fantasy football.
-- Don't be afraid to "lose" trades. Don't always be trying to pull one over on your trade partners, they'll be more likely to trust you during future trade negotiations. It helps to target specific guys you want and then be willing to overpay to get them.
-- There's a fine line between being pleasantly persistent and being pushy. Be careful when you toe that line.
-- Read, read, read, read, read, watch football games, read, read, listen to the radio and to podcasts, read, read, read and read some more.
-- Use lots of different, competing sources. Never trust just one source, even if it's your favorite. Matthew Berry is fantastic, but if you only read Matthew Berry... you're fucked.
-- Ignore SportsCenter specifically and ESPN in general. Too filtered and homogenized. They pander to the audience too much. You're better than that.
-- Feel free to fall in love with certain players, but be careful not to get blinded by your love.
Fuckin-a.
-- "Lies, damn lies, and statistics." That's the adage. Stats are lies. Statistical analysis is believing those lies. Anecdotal evidence is superior, because being able to make strong decisions based on tiny sample size is key to being the first through the door on a sleeper about to explode.
-- Don't throw good money after bad money. Be willing and able to cut your losses and ignore sunk costs.
-- Gamble on youth, not proven veterans trying to return from injury.
-- Once a running back suffers a serious injury, it is time to cut bait. Quick. Hamstrings, ankles, and feet I'm not so worried about. But ACLs (and also achilles), steer the fuck clear. Let someone else fall on the grenade, 'cause it's about to blow.
-- Don't bring too much information to the draft. One simple sheet to see who is available is enough. If you need more than that, you failed in your preparation.
-- Ignore strength of schedule and bye weeks when you're drafting and trading. Adjust on the fly, as needed.
-- Never, ever, ever think of the team you just drafted as a finished product. It's got to be just the beginning of a constantly evolving work in progress.
-- Create and maintain a list of players on other teams you'd love to add to your own. Use that list to conceptualize potential trades. When you find one that feels right, go for it.
-- Be a college football fan. Follow the college game as much as you can. This is probably the #1 secret to my success. I can't tell you how helpful it has been for me through the years, to know what kind of game incoming rookies and guys buried on the depth chart are bringing to the table once they get their opportunities in the NFL.
-- That's another thing: Opportunity trumps talent.
-- Be decisive. Just in general.
-- Try your best to learn - and remember - other coaches' opinions on players. If you can obtain a player another coach loves, you can use one trade to grease a second trade with a different team. Try to build trades with throw-ins you know can be bargaining chips elsewhere.
-- Always, ALWAYS monitor the waiver wire closely. FAAB bidding can tell you a lot about what other coaches feel like they need and where they feel weak.
-- Think about fantasy football in the shower, on the toilet, and on your way to and from work. During downtimes, don't populate your mind with anything else.
-- Depth is worthless. This game is all about maximizing the talent in your starting lineup. Use your bench as a tool for building the best starting lineup, not as a place to hold and carry depth.
-- Making the playoffs is never enough. You have to be ready to win once you get there. So while I said "ignore strength of schedule" above, that was only half true. A cupcake schedule from week 14 thru 16 can be a beautiful thing.
-- Overvalue quarterbacks and undervalue running backs. Overvalue elite tight ends and stockpile receivers.
-- Be an active participant in the narrative of the league. If you're a bigger part of the story, it helps in so many immeasurable, intangible ways.
-- Make it a point to spend a little more than you feel comfortable spending in order to beat someone else's offer for a specific player you have targeted. Being the guy who overpays is a good place to be, as it sets you up in a position where trades go through you instead of happening around you.
-- Never feel like a player on your team cannot be pried away. Everyone has to have a price. Nobody is untradeable. Once you're married, there's no more dating. Make that mistake in your real life, not in your fake football life.
-- Speaking of wives, make sure your wife understands how important fantasy football is to you, no matter how stupid it seems to her. Be really happy and a great husband when you win, and be very, very, very careful not to be an asshole to her when you lose.
-- Embrace rivalries, create new rivalries, and goad your rivals into mistakes.
-- Always remember, the enemy of your enemy is your friend. To that end, be more willing to make mutually beneficial trades with spoiler teams as opposed to your fellow playoff hopefuls.
-- Get at least one player you like from your favorite team. It hurts doubly bad when your player sucks and your real-life team loses, but being afraid of that is a loser's way to think.
-- Don't roster RBs and WRs from the same team.
-- Don't roster RBs and QBs from the same team.
-- DO roster QBs and WRs from the same team, if it's a potent combination. Nothing is sweeter than a 10-point touchdown pass.
-- Play in other leagues, but no more than two other leagues (three total, including the CKL), and be completely fucking sure that you DOMINATE those Mickeymouse Bullshit other leagues. The world needs to know that we have 14 giant, swinging dicks in the CKL.
-- Age limits for your players: QB - doesn't matter, RB - 29, WR - 32, TE - 33. Don't bend these rules unless it's for Tony Gonzalez.
-- Find a strong-legged kicker who kicks long field goals for a bad team. You can get him really cheap, and he'll give you some boom games. Dan Carpenter won a game for Kirk a few years ago, and I've followed this rule ever since.
-- Speaking of boom games... Up-and-down explosive players > steady-eddie reliable players. ride the roller coaster, don't be afraid.
-- If a player really, really pisses you off, drop his ass on Tuesday. Have a little integrity. See also: Paul dumping Peyton Manning at the beginning of last season, even though he had some trade value in a keeper league. ONIONS!
-- Plus, besides being hilarious, a Tuesday drop might flush out some FAAB cash!
-- Trying to build a roster that will score 85-90 points every week isn't good enough. You need a team that will lay a 60 point egg on occasion but will also challenge for 120 points from time to time. 120 points wins the Cup, 90 points loses it.
-- In your valuation of players, it is vitally important that you are self-aware and do not overvalue the players on your own roster.
-- If you have players you don't like on your team, don't become a salesman in trying to trade them away. It's easy to see through that charade, and you don't want the reputation of a snake oil salesman. That's why I say only draft players you want, because it'll be easier to make trades down the line.
-- The above being said, every trade you make should hurt you in some way. You have to give up something good to get something good.
-- Assume a red Q is like any other scarlet letter. Maybe the guy will play, but if you have other options, bench his ass. He won't be at 100%, anyway.
-- Every Monday morning, scan the box scores and jot down some notes on unknown players who produced some stats. Beat the fantasy football media to the punch in creating your early weekly FAAB watch list.
-- Become an NFL draft nerd.
-- Remember, every draft pick you make comes at the opportunity cost of drafting a different player. Don't throw away your picks.
-- Make it a point to own the late middle rounds. The double-digit rounds are for kickers, IDPs, and redshirts, but rounds 6 thru 9 are where you can elevate a mediocre team into a good one and a good one into a great one.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
Poor Roo. Poor Joe. The dude has been drop kicked Chuck Norris style (wait, I thought Chuck was more of a roundhouse guy) the last couple of seasons, and it's been brutal. Not because his teams have been bad, but quite the contrary. Dude has had great, high scoring squads, but the fantasy gods have smote him for some unknown reason with the worst string of luck the decade-old CKL has ever seen. What the hell did you do, Joe? Did you rampage FF City in your previous incarnation?
LeSean McCoy is a running back we’d all love to have on our team. A consensus top three pick in 2012, Shady (a great nickname, no doubt, but I prefer to call him “The Sean”) is a talented scat back type of runner who benefits from playing on an offense with Michael Vick, DeSean (following the scheme, I guess his father was named Sean) Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Defenses can’t key on any one element of the Eagles attack, and McCoy takes advantage. The Sean is a fantastic anchor for the Roos.
Big Joe doubles down on valuable running backs with Matt Forte, the rock carrier for his beloved Chicago Bears. Dude got paid a couple of months ago, causing his ADP to bump up a few ticks when a potential holdout became unnecessary. Forte plays better than his talent would seem to indicate. He has good open field moves and is a plus receiver coming out of the backfield, catching over 50 balls each of his first four NFL seasons. With McCoy and Forte, Joe has a potent one-two Kanga and Roo running back duo that dwarfs the other CKL squads. That’s a huge advantage heading into CKL 11.
Slinging straight spirals for the Clan is Matthew Stafford, a gifted young signal caller for the Detroit Lions that has limitless potential on a dynamic offense. His weapons are fantastic, in All-Universe Calvin Johnson, rapidly improving second year wideout Titus Young, slot machine Nate Burleson, and a great two-way tight end in Brandon Pettigrew. The running game is a bit iffy in Detroit right now, but that should only mean more production for the pretty boy from UGA. I don’t mean that as a insult: the dude is a competitor. Remember when he threw that touchdown to win the game when his non-throwing arm was out of joint or something? I still nod with manly jealously when I think of hearing him whimper on the ground after getting straight pounded. Geez, lots of homoerotic language coming out of my fingers for a second straight year. Gotta fix that quick.
It's time for the Roo Tang Clan to kick Chuck back. Joe is completely set at two of the most important positions. He will acquire good complementary pieces at WR and TE in the first few rounds of Saturday's draft. I have absolutely no doubt Joe will be the in the playoffs this year. And now that I’ve come out and said it, Joe will probably deck me when I roll up to the Rookie’s house Friday night. There’s no curse like the love of the Calcutron.
Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills Darren Sproles, RB, New Orleans Saints Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Season 10 of the CKL marked its second expansion, this time moving from 12 to 14 teams. The Glitterfist Lasersnakes was one of those teams, and Patrick's inaugural season finished with mixed results. A (somewhat) surprising 5-4 start filled Patrick with visions of the playoffs, but a 1-3 finish down the stretch spoiled that potential party. Still, there's a lot to be said for finishing at 6-7 in the regular season when he started with zero keepers. Kudos to you Patrick.
So what does 2012 have in store? A lot of promise and a lot of questions.
Peyton Manning will no longer be running the ship in the dome in Indy, as he signed a new deal with the Broncos this offseason to play in the mile-high city. There is a lot of buzz about Manning returning to his old form, and the weapons in Denver are present to make that happen. Peyton may be able to enjoy the best running game he's had since the early days of Edgerrin James, and the WR duo of Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker offer a lot of upside. But we should not forget that Manning is coming back from a serious injury that cost him the entire 2011 season. Many of us in the league were surprised to see Paul dump Manning after the injury news hit, and were even more surprised to see Patrick throw out a $46 claim in FAAB to lock him down. It was pretty clear from that point that Patrick meant to keep Manning coming into this year, and I'm sure the news from training camp makes him excited to own the QB that was once the #1 QB in fantasy. While I don't expect a full return to form in his first season in Denver, 4000 yards seems a lock, along with 28-33 TDs. That'll do nicely.
Fred Jackson was also hurt in 2011, but not before starting the season as the #1 RB in all of fantasy. A broken leg in his 10th game derailed what was set to be his best season as a pro by far, and likely a top-5 finish among RBs. Thankfully for Patrick, Jackson is healthy now and ready to get back to being the workhorse for the Bills. Or is he? C.J. Spiller played great football in Jackson's absence last year, and I have to think (as do many "experts") that this is destined to be, at best, a platoon with Fred being the lead back. That really makes Jackson a high end #2 RB. If Spiller gets hurt though, there's room for a lot more. Both RBs are going to get a lot of touches in the Buffalo offense, so there isn't too much concern, but I'm sure Patrick would prefer to have a clear-cut #1 RB to lead the way.
Instead, the Lasersnakes go into 2012 with two #2-type RBs, as Darren Sproles falls squarely into that category in a non-PPR league (PPR is stupid - just sayin'). Last year was a magical year for Sproles and the Saints, but is there any reason to think it will be any better? I pretty firmly believe that 2011 was Darren's ceiling. He's not going to get the ball near the goal line much, if at all. And you just can't count on a high number of long touchdown runs or receptions, no matter how lightning-quick you are. I worry that his diminutive stature is going to catch up with him one of these days and put him on the IR for an extended period. I hope for Patrick's sake that's not the case, but expecting another top-10 finish among RBs is likely foolish.
I don't have too much to say about Andy Dalton, other than he's a solid, if unspectacular backup fantasy QB. In a 14-team league, he would absolutely be drafted, but probably somewhere in the 10th round or so. Since Patrick gets to keep him for the price of a 14th rounder, there's definitely value here. But if Peytong Manning gets hurt, I'm not sure if Patrick is going to want to count on the second-year QB to start every week.
Sum it all up, and I'd say that the Glittery Snakes have a decent chance of making a playoff run. With an exceptional draft and some good luck when it comes to avoiding the injury bug, maybe a deep run could be in store. A WR at pick #3 seems as certain as any pick in the draft. The real intrigue will start in the second round, where Patrick will have 2 of the 6 picks at the turn into round three. Does he go with a second WR and a TE to fill out his offensive starting roster? The smart money is on that, but I'm sure Patrick has a few tricks up his sleeve. And honestly, after just one year, few of us have a great read on him going into the draft. That's probably a very good thing for Patrick.
Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints
The Pink Nightmare requires no introduction. We are the spokes of the CKL and Kendall is the hub. Everyone knows Kendall, but more importantly, Kendall knows everyone. The Pink Nighmare knows winning. They have enjoyed four years of late night warm milk from the above pictured trophy, doubling the closer contender (Mark). The shadow is LONG.
ENOUGH: This preface only serves one purpose: to make it clear that the dude can do whatever he wants with his keepers. He has long ago proven his FF chops. Who am I to judge?
Arian Foster rolls into the 2012 as the consensus number one overall fantasy football pick in nearly every league type. What else can I add to that? The cat just oozes cool (he recently announced he went vegan). Seriously, you should be following him on Twitter. I wish I had something negative to say about him, but I don’t. So I’ll just make some shit up. Ben Tate is going to significantly eat into his touches. The hamstring issue he suffered last preseason is going to flare up again. He won’t be getting enough protein. Who am I kidding, though? Dude is a slam dunk.
Speaking of dunks, isn’t that Jimmy Graham’s touchdown celebration of choice? Yep, just Googled it.
Were you any good at basketball, J?
I guess wearing the jersey is better than a post-coital tramp stamp.
Graham is a true son of a bitch. He played for “The U” on their basketball team and had barely any football under his belt when selected by the Saints. Which means he still has a lot of potential to learn the game. Think about that for five seconds. Yeah, I’m depressed too. Graham will be the number one tight end in the game this year. Gronkowski will probably have an STD flare up or something.
What do you know, Kendall’s third keeper finally seems like someone not destined to be the best player at their respective position. Kendall traded Megatron (and other considerations) for A.J. Green (and other considerations) earlier this offseason. This baffled me at at first. But then I thought about Kendall’s Bengal love and his theoretical respect for the Madden Curse, and this trade became excusable. Forgive me, perhaps I’m still despondent over shipping Don Mega off for Jahvid Best.
(Five minutes of soul-sucking depression have passed).
Anyway, A.J. Green is a legit number one fantasy receiver. He drips with talent and has a young signal caller in Andy Dalton to aid in his development. Other than tight end Jermaine Gresham, there doesn’t seem to be a viable threat to a large number of targets in the passing game. Which means he should improve on last year’s 14th place finish among wideouts. Great.
Kendall did us all a favor when he traded out Calvin Johnson. He gave us a glimmer of hope. If the stars align, if he strolls under all the ladders he can find and my black cat walks 100 miles up I-81/I-64 just to cross his path, then maybe we’ll postpone the CKL from having its first five-time winner. I’m not holding my breath.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Redshirt: Mikel Leshoure, RB, Detroit Lions
4-10 / 8-6 / 2-12 / 8-6 / 7-7 / 6-7 -- 35-48, .422 win percentage in six years of action, with zero playoff appearances. That's the sad CKL history of Oscar's Daddy, but look a little bit closer...
Throw out his first season, in which he inherited a garbage set of keepers from the deposed Tom, and disregard the stunning anomaly of his 2-12 third season, and Chad's not looking so bad -- 29-26, .527 win percentage, and three playoff near-misses. Plus, he was voted the league's Coach of the Year in 2007.
You wore the fedora well, Chad.
My point is simple: People now think of Chad as a middling CKL coach, but he might actually be better than you believe and ready to break through. Give the guy a chance.
Yes, he's weirdly stoic, has a slightly off-putting dry sense of humor, and drafts Malcolm Floyd WAY too early, but the guy knows football (he's an actual coach, like a real-life football coach y'all). I think his quiet confidence gets in his way a little bit sometimes, but he's usually good about owning his mistakes, and too few people can pull off playing things close to the vest in today's information age. But I digress...
I brought Chad into this league in 2006, and hyped him up as someone "who really knows his stuff," which is what I was led to believe based on comments his BFF Joe made to me while we were oiling the machinations of CKL inclusion. So maybe I'm slightly miffed that a person I brought in as a "FF guy" has yet to put the pedal down and speed through a good season in the CKL. That being said, and like I touched on earlier, Chad is not accurately represented by his win/loss statistics. There is a good fantasy football player hiding in there somewhere, he just needs the right blend of talent on his team to coax him out of his hole. Is this year's keeper quartet that magic mix to take Chad from middling mediocre to mighty and majestic?
Matt Ryan is entering his 5th season with career averages of ~3500 passing yards and ~24 TDs per season. If he matches that average in 2012, it'll likely place him right around #12 among fantasy QBs, which is, by definition, a low-end starter at the position. But with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez still in tow, plodding runner Michael Turner sacrificing touches to explosive scatback Jacquizz Rodgers, and Julio Jones trying to make good on the hype of every fantasy football prognostication in the free world, Matt Ryan's stock might be on the rise. Really, Ryan's fate as a potential upper-level QB1 in fantasy is tied directly to Julio Jones' ascension into the top-10 of WRs in fantasy. Everybody loves what Jones brings to the table, so it makes sense to say that Ryan's stock is climbing as well. That said, I personally never enjoy trying to "back door" fantasy football value... but you can't change the fact that Ryan is the guy with his finger on the trigger for an improving passing offense and is likely a top-8 (or maybe even top-5) fantasy football quarterback. He's not Aaron Rodgers, but this a good keeper for the O-Dad. He's still young, he's good, he has weapons, and he plays in an offense that wants to pass and is even experimenting with some hurry-up.
Another exciting keeper is Run DMC himself, the fragile yet fiery Darren McFadden. No need to belabor what everyone already knows -- McFad's an elite RB1 when he's healthy, but he's always hurt. You can't count on him. But still, when he plays, he's a total fantasy stud. Chad just needs to be careful handcuffing this asset to Mike Goodson?... and/or Taiwan Jones?... and he'll have himself another blue chip to toss around the poker table this fall.
Vincent Jackson is a player I absolutely loathe. A flimsy knucklehead receiver who is wildly erratic. He's like Dwayne Bowe on estrogen treatments. In his move from San Diego to Tampa, he's looking at a possible downgrade in quarterbacking (I say possible, because who really knows how good Josh Freeman is?) and a definite downgrade in offensive system. The Bucs are a run-first team, and just drafted a running back in the 1st round toward that end. I'll be honest with my assessment of V-Jax: I think they brought him in to be a glorified decoy to help open up the running game and the underneath stuff. I don't think he's a WR1 in fantasy, and I think he's only marginally WR2 material... if Chad is lucky. Jackson's 1100 yards and 9 TDs from last season feel like the absolute ceiling for him in Tampa Bay. If he duplicates those numbers, he's still likely only vaguely a top-20 WR. To me, this is not a great keeper, and wide receiver is a position Chad will likely be looking to upgrade early in Saturday's draft.
Finally, Chad's redshirt, Mikel Leshoure. Well, what can you say? There is some interesting upside here, if the guy can get and stay healthy, and get the hell out of his own way. Jahvid Best's brain is scrambled eggs whipped into flan, and Kevin Smith is the very definition of ordinary, so if Leshoure can beat those two out, he might have a bead on a very lucrative starting role in Detroit. Of course, the Lions are a pass-happy team that won't support a topflight fantasy RB1, but they could give him enough goal line carries to be a big-time fantasy producer. That's a lot of stars that need to align, but I think Leshoure is a pretty good lottery ticket, and he's better than anyone else you'd be able to draft in the 14th round, so this is a bonus to Chad. Possible flex starter, with at least the ability to be a fantasy backup for bye weeks and/or injury. Let's call Leshoure a RB4 with RB2 upside. Not bad for a redshirt, and obviously better than the seven teams who couldn't manage to cultivate a redshirt candidate at all (my sad sack Pink Nightmare included).
Where does Oscar and Odin's Daddy go from here? Well, he's one of the most difficult drafters to read, because he's wildly unpredictable and because he stays very tight-lipped during the pre-draft process. My assumption is that his #7 overall pick will be spent on a wide receiver, given the way the board stacks up and the obvious question marks surrounding V-Jax. But who knows with Chad? This pick could be anyone. Malcolm Floyd, maybe?
With a good draft, will this team compete for a Cup, or even for Chad's first-ever CKL playoff appearance? I'd say that depends on two things: 1) Will Julio Jones experience the expected meteoric rise to fantasy godhood, and drag Matt Ryan along for the ride? 2) Can Darren McFadden stay healthy? If both answers are "yes," then Chad might just make good on his hype from 2006 and show us that he really is better than any of us have come to believe and that he really is the guy who knows his stuff, just like Joe told me and just like I told the league six years ago.
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants
We put on a show for the fans with the "HATE BOWL," and we exhibit the rivalry as best we can, but the truth is that I respect Nth Degree just as much as I hate them. However, Rookie and I tend to have different tastes when it comes to the players we like to hand-pick for our teams. Not totally different tastes, mind you, just sometimes different. That's why the review you're about to read will run a little bit hot and cold. But before we get into all that, let's first talk about one thing up front:
Touchdowns.
Yeah, touchdowns. 6-point nuggets of goodness (4 if it's a passing TD), and the lifeblood of a fantasy football team with championship aspirations. But here's the thing about touchdowns (other than QBs at the helm of high-octane passing attacks, workhorse backs with no timeshare, or big possession receivers who have a history of being go-to guys in the red zone): it's very difficult to predict them when it comes to fantasy football prognosticating.
That's why I find Rookie's trio of keepers to be so interesting. All three of these guys have value that hinges on unreliable, unpredictable touchdown numbers. Consider the following touchdown totals from last season:
-- Cam Newton's otherworldly 14 rushing touchdowns from the quarterback position.
-- Michael Turner's 11 rushing touchdowns in the last year before he entered an official committee-style backfield and carryshare.
-- Victor Cruz's 9 touchdowns from the slot position, five of which came from long, catch-and-run plays of 60 yards or longer.
I'd say that even money is on none of the three players repeating - or even coming close - to those anomalous TD-scoring antics in 2012. But does that doom Rookie's trio to bottoming out and proving ineffective? I say no. Hell no. There is certain upside here that these three players have yet to tap:
-- Cam Newton proved he's an effective quarterback last season, be it running or passing. I think it's pretty safe to say that he'll easily build off of last season's 4000-yard, 21-touchdown performance through the air. Even just a 15% uptick in performance from his rookie to his sophomore season puts him on pace with those Marino record-breakers (Brees, Brady, Stafford) from last season. And while there's probably no way Cam will reproduce his 700 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, the production on the ground isn't going to totally disappear. In a re-draft league, I'm looking at Cam Newton behind only A-Rodge and Breesy, with the full knowledge that his production could look an awful lot like a top-10 QB and a top-15 running back combined into the same player. Yeah, I'd say Cam Newton is a pretty damn good keeper.
-- Michael Turner is in the twilight of his career. There's just no other way to spin it. However, if he cedes some carries between the 20s, doesn't that mean he'll be fresher and more rested for red zone work? Won't the rest make his legs spry? And won't it also mean he'll be better able to avoid those ticky-tack injuries that always seemed to slow him down toward the end of every season? Look, Burner is no longer a young running back with huge upside. He is what he is, and what he is is a solid veteran power back with a well-defined role in an exciting, productive Atlanta offense. His 1340 yards and 11 touchdown totals from 2011 are going to erode, but they aren't going to fall through the floor. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the reports of Burner's demise are greatly exaggerated. 1200 and 8 seems totally reasonable to me.
-- Victor Cruz came from out of nowhere last season. He was a surprise to his opponents, but he was also a bit of a surprise to his own team. After a full offseason of embracing his unique talents and dreaming up new ways to unleash him upon the enemy, isn't it conceivable that the Giants could plan for his role to actually grow in 2012? I love slot receivers, but typically there is a cap on their production since they do the bulk of their work in the middle of the field, between defenders. You know, in an area of the field where they'll make a catch and then get tackled. I think this season we'll see Cruz operating from the split end position along the sideline a bit more... and that could translate into more opportunities to blow the roof off of the coverage altogether and not have to rely so much on slipping past defenders in order to generate those big gains. He won't pop nearly as many long YAC touchdowns, but maybe he's in line for more touchdowns in general, just as a deep threat who is set to eat some of Mario Manningham's abandoned production? I'm buying Cruz. I'm buying him hard. Rock hard.
So as a unit, Rookie has a super-elite starting QB, a yawn-inducing low-end RB1, and a boom/bust WR1 who looks like a lot more boom than bust. This core led Nth Degree to the CKL's Final Four in 2011, and I think it can carry the team to the same plateau in 2012. The trick is how Rookie is able to stockpile talent around this nucleus, but he's a savvy drafter who should have no trouble with that task. Can he win the Cup with this trio providing the engine to drive the Nth Machine? Hmmmmm...
I think Nth Degree is a legit Cup contender heading into this season... unreliable, unpredictable, anomalous touchdowns be damned.
The inner-workings of Nathan's fantasy football brain.
Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago Bears Redshirt: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Paralysis by analysis.
Obeying Occam's Razor, the above adage is my best guess as to why Nathan hasn't been better through a decade of CKL competition than his measly two playoff appearances and zero CKL Cups.
I bring this up for one simple reason: Of all the 13 other coaches in the league, it is Nathan's coaching chops, NFL knowledge, and overarching fantasy football strategy that I admire and respect the most. Yet, he doesn't win, not consistently. Maybe he has flawed instincts, bunk sources, or maybe he's been the victim of bad luck, but at the end of the day I blame his analytical approach for bleeding over the lines into an over-analytical approach, thus crippling his efforts to win in this league. Overthinking? Maybe.
Heading into 2012, THUNDER BEAR doesn't have a group of keepers that will make other coaches jealous. It's not a bad group, just not much in the way of huge upside or imagination-capturing star power. When your headliner is Steven Jackson, you know it's a milquetoast group. Speaking of...
Steven Jackson is a solid enough RB2 in fantasy, and a fairly reliable player who will produce points for your team. However, he's getting older, he's been injury prone, he plays in a bad Rams offense, and he now faces a battle for touches from supersonic rookie talent Isaiah Pead... and no other CKL coach really wants him. I'm sure Pead will end up just being the curveball to Jackson's overpowering fastball, but the fact of the matter is that Steven Jackson is a fine player who doesn't stack up as much of a desirable "asset" in a keeper league. Just ask Nathan how slow the trade market has been for Jackson's services. It's like he got caught with the hot potato and is trying to ride out the burns.
Brandon Marshall, however, might be a different story. I think the guy is legitimately troubled, by like a serious emotional problem or something. He's also allergic to the end zone. But he's wildly productive otherwise, and is now reunited with the best quarterback he's ever had passing him the ball. A majority of fantasy gurus are expecting big things from B-Marsh in 2012, and I'd say he's a legit WR1 for the Bears and for the BEAR. Marshall is a desirable asset in the CKL, and thus he is a tradeable commodity.
Nathan's third keeper was TE Jermicheal Finley from the Packers. Two weeks ago, Nathan traded Finley, the 7.5 pick and the 15.5 pick to Chad for the 2.8 pick, the 8.8 pick, and the 15.7 pick. So basically, Nathan traded Finley for a second round draft pick, with the additional cost of moving down from the 7th to the 8th round and moving back two spots in the redshirt round in order to grease the deal. I understand the valuation of Finley as a 2nd round pick, and I get why Chad made this deal, but I think the unequivocal "winner" of this trade was Nathan, further proof of his fantasy football acumen. The real key to this thing is finding out what player that 8th pick in the 2nd round (#22 overall) represents. If it's an upgrade over Finley - and it should be - then this was a good trade for Nathan.
Finally, Nathan's redshirt is a interesting little player. Shifty scatback Jacquizz Rodgers figures to the the primary beneficiary of the Falcons' move to limit the wear and tear on Michael Turner via forging a backfield-by-committee approach. With an increased workload, Quizz could quickly and easily expand upon his rookie season totals of 393 yards and 2 touchdowns on 78 touches (rushes + receptions). That's 5 yards per touch, so I expect Atlanta to put the ball in this kid's hands at least twice as often as they did last year, which means 150 touches and 750 yards if you follow my math. Depending on the touchdown potential, that's at least in the ballpark of being flex-worthy in the CKL, which is not bad at the expense of your 14th round pick. I'd say Quizz is a positive redshirt for THUNDER BEAR, if not an outright difference-maker.
So adding it up, Nathan has a totally unsexy yet solid RB2 (flex starter) in Jackson, an exciting WR1 in Marshall, and a RB4/RB5 wildcard type in Rodgers. With three picks in the first two rounds, he'll need to find that RB1 to build the team around, which is never a small order. He'll also need to locate a starting QB, a second WR, and a starting TE. That's more needs than premium picks, so Nate will need to mine some of that limitless knowledge to locate some middle round gems in the 2012 draft. Thus, I expect to see him take a few more calculated risks on younger players with oozing upside, and if I were a betting man I'd be placing my wager on Nathan doing what he always does -- waiting a really long, dangerously risky amount of time before drafting his first QB and exercising unflinching patience with his tight end drafting.
Will it be enough for Nathan and his THUNDER BEAR to overcome paralysis by analysis and make just his third playoff appearance in 11 years? Right now all I can say is that this is not one of the top-six situations heading into the draft, so Nathan will need to see at least some of his picks break out. There is pressure for him to find more boom than bust next Saturday, and his draft is probably the one I'll be watching the most intently other than my own. He's good at digging for those diamonds, and I will enjoy watching him work.
I have a lot of respect for Nathan's fantasy football prowess, and I have a lot of confidence in his ability to successfully run his team. That's why I'm picking him as the early favorite to "win" the 2012 draft. Don't let me down, brother. You're better than two playoff appearances in ten years, and everybody knows it. Time to start winning. Work some wizardry with those picks, and break through that paralysis.
