Keeper Analysis - THUNDER BEAR

The inner-workings of Nathan's fantasy football brain.

Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams
Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago Bears
Redshirt: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Atlanta Falcons


Paralysis by analysis.

Obeying Occam's Razor, the above adage is my best guess as to why Nathan hasn't been better through a decade of CKL competition than his measly two playoff appearances and zero CKL Cups.

I bring this up for one simple reason: Of all the 13 other coaches in the league, it is Nathan's coaching chops, NFL knowledge, and overarching fantasy football strategy that I admire and respect the most.  Yet, he doesn't win, not consistently.  Maybe he has flawed instincts, bunk sources, or maybe he's been the victim of bad luck, but at the end of the day I blame his analytical approach for bleeding over the lines into an over-analytical approach, thus crippling his efforts to win in this league.  Overthinking?  Maybe.

Heading into 2012, THUNDER BEAR doesn't have a group of keepers that will make other coaches jealous.  It's not a bad group, just not much in the way of huge upside or imagination-capturing star power.  When your headliner is Steven Jackson, you know it's a milquetoast group.  Speaking of...

Steven Jackson is a solid enough RB2 in fantasy, and a fairly reliable player who will produce points for your team.  However, he's getting older, he's been injury prone, he plays in a bad Rams offense, and he now faces a battle for touches from supersonic rookie talent Isaiah Pead... and no other CKL coach really wants him.  I'm sure Pead will end up just being the curveball to Jackson's overpowering fastball, but the fact of the matter is that Steven Jackson is a fine player who doesn't stack up as much of a desirable "asset" in a keeper league.  Just ask Nathan how slow the trade market has been for Jackson's services.  It's like he got caught with the hot potato and is trying to ride out the burns.

Brandon Marshall, however, might be a different story.  I think the guy is legitimately troubled, by like a serious emotional problem or something.  He's also allergic to the end zone.  But he's wildly productive otherwise, and is now reunited with the best quarterback he's ever had passing him the ball.  A majority of fantasy gurus are expecting big things from B-Marsh in 2012, and I'd say he's a legit WR1 for the Bears and for the BEAR.  Marshall is a desirable asset in the CKL, and thus he is a tradeable commodity.

Nathan's third keeper was TE Jermicheal Finley from the Packers.  Two weeks ago, Nathan traded Finley, the 7.5 pick and the 15.5 pick to Chad for the 2.8 pick, the 8.8 pick, and the 15.7 pick.  So basically, Nathan traded Finley for a second round draft pick, with the additional cost of moving down from the 7th to the 8th round and moving back two spots in the redshirt round in order to grease the deal.  I understand the valuation of Finley as a 2nd round pick, and I get why Chad made this deal, but I think the unequivocal "winner" of this trade was Nathan, further proof of his fantasy football acumen.  The real key to this thing is finding out what player that 8th pick in the 2nd round (#22 overall) represents.  If it's an upgrade over Finley - and it should be - then this was a good trade for Nathan.

Finally, Nathan's redshirt is a interesting little player.  Shifty scatback Jacquizz Rodgers figures to the the primary beneficiary of the Falcons' move to limit the wear and tear on Michael Turner via forging a backfield-by-committee approach.  With an increased workload, Quizz could quickly and easily expand upon his rookie season totals of 393 yards and 2 touchdowns on 78 touches (rushes + receptions).  That's 5 yards per touch, so I expect Atlanta to put the ball in this kid's hands at least twice as often as they did last year, which means 150 touches and 750 yards if you follow my math.  Depending on the touchdown potential, that's at least in the ballpark of being flex-worthy in the CKL, which is not bad at the expense of your 14th round pick.  I'd say Quizz is a positive redshirt for THUNDER BEAR, if not an outright difference-maker.

So adding it up, Nathan has a totally unsexy yet solid RB2 (flex starter) in Jackson, an exciting WR1 in Marshall, and a RB4/RB5 wildcard type in Rodgers.  With three picks in the first two rounds, he'll need to find that RB1 to build the team around, which is never a small order.  He'll also need to locate a starting QB, a second WR, and a starting TE.  That's more needs than premium picks, so Nate will need to mine some of that limitless knowledge to locate some middle round gems in the 2012 draft.  Thus, I expect to see him take a few more calculated risks on younger players with oozing upside, and if I were a betting man I'd be placing my wager on Nathan doing what he always does -- waiting a really long, dangerously risky amount of time before drafting his first QB and exercising unflinching patience with his tight end drafting.

Will it be enough for Nathan and his THUNDER BEAR to overcome paralysis by analysis and make just his third playoff appearance in 11 years?  Right now all I can say is that this is not one of the top-six situations heading into the draft, so Nathan will need to see at least some of his picks break out.  There is pressure for him to find more boom than bust next Saturday, and his draft is probably the one I'll be watching the most intently other than my own.  He's good at digging for those diamonds, and I will enjoy watching him work.

I have a lot of respect for Nathan's fantasy football prowess, and I have a lot of confidence in his ability to successfully run his team.  That's why I'm picking him as the early favorite to "win" the 2012 draft.  Don't let me down, brother.  You're better than two playoff appearances in ten years, and everybody knows it.  Time to start winning.  Work some wizardry with those picks, and break through that paralysis.