Keeper Analysis - Nth Degree

Behold, the sacred HATE BOWL.

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants


We put on a show for the fans with the "HATE BOWL," and we exhibit the rivalry as best we can, but the truth is that I respect Nth Degree just as much as I hate them.  However, Rookie and I tend to have different tastes when it comes to the players we like to hand-pick for our teams.  Not totally different tastes, mind you, just sometimes different.  That's why the review you're about to read will run a little bit hot and cold.  But before we get into all that, let's first talk about one thing up front:

Touchdowns.

Yeah, touchdowns.  6-point nuggets of goodness (4 if it's a passing TD), and the lifeblood of a fantasy football team with championship aspirations.  But here's the thing about touchdowns (other than QBs at the helm of high-octane passing attacks, workhorse backs with no timeshare, or big possession receivers who have a history of being go-to guys in the red zone): it's very difficult to predict them when it comes to fantasy football prognosticating.

That's why I find Rookie's trio of keepers to be so interesting.  All three of these guys have value that hinges on unreliable, unpredictable touchdown numbers.  Consider the following touchdown totals from last season:

-- Cam Newton's otherworldly 14 rushing touchdowns from the quarterback position.

-- Michael Turner's 11 rushing touchdowns in the last year before he entered an official committee-style backfield and carryshare.

-- Victor Cruz's 9 touchdowns from the slot position, five of which came from long, catch-and-run plays of 60 yards or longer.


I'd say that even money is on none of the three players repeating - or even coming close - to those anomalous TD-scoring antics in 2012.  But does that doom Rookie's trio to bottoming out and proving ineffective?  I say no.  Hell no.  There is certain upside here that these three players have yet to tap:

-- Cam Newton proved he's an effective quarterback last season, be it running or passing.  I think it's pretty safe to say that he'll easily build off of last season's 4000-yard, 21-touchdown performance through the air.  Even just a 15% uptick in performance from his rookie to his sophomore season puts him on pace with those Marino record-breakers (Brees, Brady, Stafford) from last season.  And while there's probably no way Cam will reproduce his 700 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, the production on the ground isn't going to totally disappear. In a re-draft league, I'm looking at Cam Newton behind only A-Rodge and Breesy, with the full knowledge that his production could look an awful lot like a top-10 QB and a top-15 running back combined into the same player.  Yeah, I'd say Cam Newton is a pretty damn good keeper.

-- Michael Turner is in the twilight of his career.  There's just no other way to spin it.  However, if he cedes some carries between the 20s, doesn't that mean he'll be fresher and more rested for red zone work?  Won't the rest make his legs spry?  And won't it also mean he'll be better able to avoid those ticky-tack injuries that always seemed to slow him down toward the end of every season?  Look, Burner is no longer a young running back with huge upside.  He is what he is, and what he is is a solid veteran power back with a well-defined role in an exciting, productive Atlanta offense.  His 1340 yards and 11 touchdown totals from 2011 are going to erode, but they aren't going to fall through the floor.  I guess what I'm trying to say is that the reports of Burner's demise are greatly exaggerated.  1200 and 8 seems totally reasonable to me.

-- Victor Cruz came from out of nowhere last season.  He was a surprise to his opponents, but he was also a bit of a surprise to his own team.  After a full offseason of embracing his unique talents and dreaming up new ways to unleash him upon the enemy, isn't it conceivable that the Giants could plan for his role to actually grow in 2012?  I love slot receivers, but typically there is a cap on their production since they do the bulk of their work in the middle of the field, between defenders.  You know, in an area of the field where they'll make a catch and then get tackled.  I think this season we'll see Cruz operating from the split end position along the sideline a bit more... and that could translate into more opportunities to blow the roof off of the coverage altogether and not have to rely so much on slipping past defenders in order to generate those big gains.  He won't pop nearly as many long YAC touchdowns, but maybe he's in line for more touchdowns in general, just as a deep threat who is set to eat some of Mario Manningham's abandoned production?  I'm buying Cruz.  I'm buying him hard.  Rock hard.


So as a unit, Rookie has a super-elite starting QB, a yawn-inducing low-end RB1, and a boom/bust WR1 who looks like a lot more boom than bust.  This core led Nth Degree to the CKL's Final Four in 2011, and I think it can carry the team to the same plateau in 2012.  The trick is how Rookie is able to stockpile talent around this nucleus, but he's a savvy drafter who should have no trouble with that task.  Can he win the Cup with this trio providing the engine to drive the Nth Machine?  Hmmmmm...

I think Nth Degree is a legit Cup contender heading into this season... unreliable, unpredictable, anomalous touchdowns be damned.