Keeper Analysis - Juris United

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Redshirt: Kendall Hunter, RB, San Francisco 49ers

On the heels of a fantastic 2011 season, that saw his Juris United squad finish in second place, Alan has to have more than a few concerns going into the draft ten short days from now.  On the surface, these keepers look great, with two RBs that are generally going in the first round in early drafts, as well as a low-end WR1 with some upside (oh yeah, and Kendall Hunter).  What's not to like, right?  Several things, and let's look at them each in more depth.

Maurice Jones-Drew - First, congratulations to MJD on a fantastic 2011 season that saw him lead the NFL in rushing with just over 1600 yards.  Alan would love to see that production again.  But as it stands now, Jones-Drew has not reported to training camp, holding out for a contract extension.  He still has two years left on his current deal and the Jaguars have publicly stated that they won't give Maurice a new deal.  I don't think this will be resolved by draft day, which may force Alan to grab another RB earlier than he wants, or at least snag Rashad Jennings as capable insurance.  I think this deal gets done just in time for the season to start.  While I don't envision another Chris Johnson-type season after his prolonged holdout, I don't see MJD being as productive as we're used to seeing.  I think it'll be a challenge to stay in the top 10.

Dwayne Bowe - While Jones-Drew is a true holdout, Bowe is technically an unsigned player with only two options: sign the franchise tender or don't play in 2012 (a long-term deal can't be signed as the deadline has passed for getting such deals executed).  With just these options (make money or don't make money), there is little doubt that Dwayne "Double Rain-" Bowe will sign and report.  But it is a total mystery to me why he hasn't already.  Alan is certainly worried less about this situation, but news around Chiefs training camp is that QB Matt Cassell is building quite a rapport with second-year WR Jonathan Baldwin.  Even so, Bowe will be KC's number one option in the passing game and should once again put up a solid season.  A thousand yards and 8 touchdowns seems about right, if not a bit low.

Ryan Mathews - Okay, okay, I guess this isn't a problem at all.  Mike Tolbert is out, joining an uber-crowded backfield in Carolina, leaving Ryan Mathews in what most pundits believe is a golden situation for touches.  Mathews should see the majority of goal line carries and early down work.  Ronnie Brown was signed as the change of pace back, but he'll have to stay healthy to really put a dent into Ryan's workload.  Speaking of health, that's really the only issue for Mathews going into the season.  He's struggled to stay on the field at times, but has looked dynamic while out there.  He's going as early as the 5th pick in many drafts so far, and for good reason.  Alan has to feel really good about the potential for a big season from Ryan Mathews.

Kendall Hunter - At first, I was a bit surprised that Alan decided to keep this redshirt RB, but for a 14th round pick, it makes sense.  Hunter is in a crowded backfield along with veterans Frank Gore and Brandon Jacobs, as well as speedy rookie LaMichael James.  Hunter showed some promise in his rookie season, but there's too many mouths to feed now to feel really good about his prospects to pick up anything other than scraps unless someone gets hurt.  Look for Alan to drop Hunter relatively early to find a better waiver wire option.

Ultimately, the outlook for the Juris United season will depend much on the draft, of course, but if all three of these guys play a full season,, Alan will no doubt be right back in the playoffs.  But I think karma comes back to bite at least one of MJD or Bowe, and Juris United will be left fighting hard just to sneak into the playoffs.  Alan needs to be prepared for one of his better drafts come August 18th.