We've all got a system for forecasting the outcome of a football game. I tend to check Vegas odds. Mark predicts the Steelers to go 16-0 every single year. I hear Kendall can read the outcome of a game in the intestines of woodland creatures.
There are, however, some scientific models out there that can help to identify teams that either under- or overachieve in any given year.
The four concepts below are some of the core underlying indicators of team performance. Historically, they've each shown great significance in projecting a team's performance into the future, so keep them in mind as you prepare for the 2012 season.
Armed with this kind of info, you might think twice about betting on another unbelievable season from Aaron Rogers, and might, just might consider running some Dolphins.
Bill Barnwell is quickly approaching must read status for me. He was cold forged in the Excel-driven bowels of Football Outsiders, and had been doing great work as Grantland's resident NFL wonk. Dude knows his stuff.
ReplyDeleteYep, I'm sold on Barnwell being a boss. Great link, Paulie. Thanks for posting!
ReplyDeleteWhoops, sorry. That was Patrick, not Paul. Thanks Patty!
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