September 11, 2013

Week 1 Start/Sit Thoughts

As I make my final lineup decisions on Sunday mornings, I'll be taking some notes regarding start/sit decisions that pique my interest. Then I'll blab about them here. Discuss and all.

A quick note about the format. I'll start the discussion with an exact copy of the notes I took Sunday morning. I'll explain them a bit and throw in actual performance as a measuring stick.

Mark flexing James Jones over Eddie Lacy. Wait and see approach with the rookie? Bad matchup, too.

I totally understand why Mark made this move, with Lacy being unproven against a tough-sledding defense like San Francisco. But I tend to always side with RBs against WRs at the flex position, particularly if you can confidently project them with 10 or more touches. WRs are just way too variable.

Performance: James Jones put up a doughnut, while Lacy was 14 for 41 with a TD and some receiving yards to boot. Those points wouldn't have made a difference against Alan's big point explosion, but points are points.

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Paul: Vereen over Gio Bernard? Seems like the latter has more upside.

And I was way wrong. It has to be tough to feel any kind of confidence in New England running backs, knowing that an early fumble can ruin a fantasy start. Just seemed like Gio would get more touches than Vereen. Wrong-O.

Performance: Vereen was the only RB to go over 100 yards on Sunday, and finished with a solid 15.9 total fantasy point total. Gio only had four carries and 3.0 fantasy points. Well done, Paul. Too bad the dude won't be able to help you for most of the rest of the season.

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Kendall: Signs pointing to not a full load for Foster, but clearly you still have to start him.

Nothing to really talk about here, other than note how the touches were distributed between Foster and Tate. 

Performance: 24 touches to 11 in favor of Foster. I didn't watch the game, but I read that Tate looked better than Foster. Kendall's week one atomic bomb performance didn't require much from Arian, but I'm certain the Nightmare is slightly concerned, knowing they'll need to rely on Foster as a workhorse at some point soon. This is why you handcuff people, especially with Ben Tate. He's like Michael Turner when he was on the Chargers. 

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Rookie: Bradford over Dalton? I guess it is kinda a coin flip.

On the surface I thought Dalton had the slightest margin of upside over Bradford. But it really would've been a coin flip situation had this been my QB decision to make (barf).

Performance: Bradford: 20.9; Dalton: 17.4. Rex looks endangered early in the season, but Rookie got this call correct.

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Rookie: Not trusting Roddy, eh? Guess we’ll see how that goes.

I actually think this was the right call, although it couldn't have been easy to do. Roddy has always been very reliable. Having Colston as a backup plan is pretty comforting too.

Performance: White was mostly a decoy, finishing with two catches for 1.9 fantasy points. Colston scored and finished with 13.6 points. Oddly, White outscored Rexkie's flex, Lamar Miller, by 0.9 points.

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Chad: Flexing Antonio Brown over Daryl Richardson? Any thought to bumping Brown up to WR, and putting in D-Rich over Amendola? 

These thoughts were entirely predicated on Amendola's injury. Seemed a touch more prudent to put in St. Louis' starting RB, and bumping Brown into Danny's spot if you really wanted to start Antonio.

Performance: Amendola: a gutsy 10.4 points, but he reaggravated his groin issue. Brown with 7.5 and Richardson with 9.6. Pretty much a wash, but clearly keeping Amendola in the game was the right call.

3 comments:

  1. Nathan, I love this. Every week, please, PLEASE.

    As for Arian Foster... I'm not worried. Tate looked better in so much as any between-the-tackles grinder looks better running between the tackles than his all-purpose counterpart. It was a weird game for the RBs, but Foster is the stud in that backfield, while Tate is the power running understudy. Arian gets the goal-to-go work, so until/unless that changes, I'm not worried.

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  2. Good shit, Nate! I'm really bummed about Vereen. What makes it even worse is that I face Ridley this week.

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  3. Didn't really consider benching Amendola...I figured he would play and stay healthy most of the year. I've been proven wrong and you see where he sits this week.

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