November 7, 2012

Wednesday FAABnalysis -- 11/7/12

Minor outpatient surgery this afternoon to correct my Schatzki's Ring, so I have to rocket through FAABnalysis today.  But don't worry!  I've got a trick up my sleeve!

First, hit play on this to experience the soundtrack of this week's auctions.




Okay, here's the trick...

Written at ~10:00 AM today, BEFORE the auctions processed:

Expecting a few big claims today.

Marcel Reece
This big (6-1, 250-pound) dancing bear has some of the softest hands in the running back business.  He's a rare, weird talent -- a big dude without a power game, but with really exceptional receiving skills.  The Raiders haven't been able to figure out how to use him well, but with Run DMC and Mike Goodson both high ankle sprung, Reece is the best (read: only) weapon Oakland has in its backfield.  (Unless, of course, you count the supersonic speed of Taiwan Jones.)  Reece is the guy the fantasy experts are touting, after he rang up 8 catches for 95 yards and a TD in week 9.  I think the guy is interesting, because if the Raiders forge a real role for him, he could have good value even after McFadden returns to action.  I'm looking for some pretty big bids on him today -- I'm bidding $15, but I don't expect to win the auction.  I'm guessing he goes for around $20 or so.

Taiwan Jones
At least a few of us will smell bullshit swirling around Reece, and will instead make the move for Jones.  Jones is extremely fast, but lacks wiggle, lacks durability, and lacks trust from the coaching staff.  Plus, he's back to the bench once McFad returns.  It might be a smart claim, but I feel like it'll end up being a bust.  Expecting the winning bid to be in the neighborhood of $8-$10.

Emmanuel Sanders
Antonio Brown has his own ankle injury, but we haven't been told if it's a high ankle sprain or not.  The high sprain - of course - has the much longer recovery.  In any case, Sanders will receive the promotion from #3 to #2 wide receiver in the Steelers pecking order, and that's a big move to make.  I've said it all along, I think Sanders has more natural talent than Brown, so it's possible he could take the job and never give it up... but for some reason, the Steelers prefer Brown.  Anyway, my prediction is that the Sanders auction will get up into the double digits, topping off in the low teens.  Call it $13.

T.Y. Hilton
6 catches for 102 yards and a TD, and he looked good doing it.  Everyone knows that Donnie Avery was never anything more than a super-fragile stopgap, and it looks like Hilton is past his rookie jitters and ready to develop that synergry with Andrew Luck.  I'm bidding $15 for Hilton, and I'm hopeful that wins the auction.  I loved the kid in college, and I see Steve Smith potential for him in the pros, especially playing with Luck.

Dwayne Allen
Another case where the rising tide of Andrew Luck figures to raise all boats.  Most expected Coby Fleener to be the tight end to own in Indy, but he's been unable to stay healthy, and Allen's well-rounded package of goods has emerged as the beneficiary.  $10 or $11 should buy someone a nice young tight end with a few "boom" games left in him this season.

Chris Ivory
They keep trying to bury the guy, but he just keeps rising up when the players in front of him get hurt.  When he gets on the field, Ivory always looks pretty good.  I wish the Saints would trade him to Cincinnati.  For the CKL, this is a shot in the dark.  How long is Sproles out?  How many touches will Ivory share with Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram?  Will the Saints ever bother trying to run at all?  It's a spotty situation.  But Ivory will go to someone for more than a $5 bid as a smart speculative add.

Danario Alexander
The Chargers have nothing but a load of dogshit at wide receiver.  None are any good, but Alexander and his faberge knees is the shitty WR du jour for the Bolts.  One of us will go for the sucker $5 bid after reading Norvel's quote about getting Alexander the ball.  ("Danario's going to play. We're going to play him. He's going to be a big part of what we do. He earned that right.")

Jake Locker
He's almost back, and people still love his potential.  He's a $5 claim today, I'm guessing.


Here's what actually happened in today's FAAB action...
Sorry guys, gotta go fast today...
  • 22 total claims
  • 12 cash claims
  • $104 spent
  • $8.67 per cash claim


T.Y. Hilton -- $26 to Chad
dropped: Robbie Gould / other bids: $15 to Kendall, $7 to Joe, $4 to Norris
Entering this bidding session, Chad had the second-biggest bankroll, so I'm glad he found a player worth spending on.  Like I said above, I love Hilton.  On the OO-Dad, he looks like the #5 WR, behind VJax, Decker, Colston, and Stevie Johnson.  Chad has amassed an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver this season!  Of course, when your best running back is Michael Turner, you need some juice at wideout.  I'm looking for Chad to try to trade a couple of those receivers for a running back, so stay tuned!

Chris Ivory -- $15 to Alan
dropped: Jo-Lonn Dunbar / other bids: $6 to Joe, $6 to Derrick
Once upon a time, Alan was able to boast the deepest backfield in the league.  Then he traded Frank Gore and saw Maurice Jones-Drew go down.  Alan is certainly kicking over rocks to see what he can find, and Ivory is a fine rock to kick over.

Marcel Reece -- $15 to Kendall
dropped: Colin McCarthy / other bids: $13 to Mark, $9 to Derrick, $9 to Paul, $7 to Joe, $5 to Norris
You know when you have a somewhat bad hand in Texas Hold'em, but there are possibilities, and you want to see the flop just to be sure?  You'll pay the big blind and call any raises sometimes.  That's what just happened to me.  My hopes are high, my expectations are low, and while I can't believe I landed Reece, I'm excited to see where the hand goes post-flop.  I'll probably end up folding, but you never know...

Emmanuel Sanders -- $11 to Joe
dropped: DeMeco Ryans or Kai Forbath (tuesday drops!) / other bids: $4 to Norris, $3 to Paul
Nice move for Joe to back up his investment in (now ailing) Antonio Brown with Sanders.  Like I said above, I think Sanders can be really good, and the Steelers are blind to be be favoring Brown.

Brian Urlacher -- $9 to Patrick
dropped: Mason Crosby / other bids: none
You don't win FAAB by bidding against yourself, but you also don't win CKL games without a competent linebacker.  Urlacher may be old, but he's still racking up points.

Taiwan Jones -- $6 to Joe
dropped: Cary Williams / other bids: $5 to Paul
The McFadden owner, making a move for a potential McFadden handcuff.  Joe paid less than I thought he'd have to, so job well done.

Dwayne Allen -- $6 to Norris
dropped: Matt Cassel or Jerrell Freeman or Justin Tucker (tuesday drops!) / other bids: $3 to Mark, $3 to Joe, $2 to Russ
I think this was a nice steal for Norris.

Kevin Ogletree -- $6 to Ben
dropped: Jacquizz Rodgers / other bids: $2 to Norris, $1 to Joe
Only assholes win auctions for Kevin Ogletree.  All joking aside, did he just have another big game or something?  3-96-1?  Yeah, I guess that counts.  Good luck with 'Tree, Ben.


Dumpster Diving...

Donald Jones, $3 to Joe -- Joe's never-ending roster churn will sometimes include some really hopeless players.  Jones isn't completely hopeless, but he's close.

Justin Tuck, $1 to Russ -- Steal.

Ronnie Brown, $0 to Mark -- Interesting free claim on a player who seems to be involved in his team's offense.

Michael Floyd, $0 to Derrick -- If he had a QB, and if that QB had an o-line, Floyd would be the cat's meow right now.

The rest? Meh.


Remaining Budgets:
Kick Azz Giants -- $66
Barclay Street Bruisers -- $56
Glitterfist Lasersnakes -- $52
Achilles Heels -- $47
Blackpool Penguins -- $40
Juris United -- $39
Double-O Daddy -- $38
The Champeens -- $36
Nth Degree -- $36
The Magic Stick -- $35
Jesus the Moose -- $34
Pink Nightmare -- $13
THUNDER BEAR -- $4
Roo Tang Clan -- $0

Congratulations to Joe for winning the Blown Load!


Biggest Claims to Date:

Rashad Jennings, $47 to Nathan on 10/24

Alex Green, $32 to Mark on 10/10

Kevin Ogletree, $26 to Kendall on 9/12

T.Y. Hilton, $26 to Chad on 11/7

Greg Olsen, $21 to Kendall on 9/26

Chaz Schilens, $21 to Kirk on 10/3

Andre Brown, $19 to Russ on 9/19

LaRod Stephens-Howling, $17 to Ben on 10/24

Daniel Thomas, $16 to Rookie on 9/26

Robert Meachem, $15 to Paul on 10/10

Chris Ivory, $15 to Alan on 11/7

Marcel Reece, $15 to Kendall on 11/7

Domenik Hixon, $14 to Nathan on 10/3

Jeremy Kerley, $13 to Derrick on 9/12

Daryl Richardson, $13 to Derrick on 9/19

Tashard Choice, $13 to Patrick on 9/26

Ramses Barden, $12 to Russ on 9/26

Brandon Bolden, $12 to Paul on 10/3

Montario Hardesty, $12 to Russ on 10/17

Ryan Broyles, $12 to Rookie on 10/24

DeAngelo Williams, $12 to Joe on 11/2

Dexter McCluster, $11 to Nathan on 9/12

Brian Hartline, $11 to Rookie on 9/19

Sidney Rice, $11 to Joe on 9/21 (Friday FAAB Rebound!)

LaRod Stephens-Howling, $11 to Rookie on 10/10

Tim Jennings, $11 to Ben on 10/31

Emmanuel Sanders, $11 to Joe on 11/7

Danny Woodhead, $10 to Patrick on 10/10



That's it for this week, but as always, remember...


GOTTA SPEND TO WIN!








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