Nathan's Nits - Week 10

Sometimes, you just have to hang out with the family on a Sunday morning. Brunch on the town. Trip to the park. Maybe you miss your window to jot down your sit/start notes. Whatevs. To sate your reading needs (and to indulge my curiosity), I'm going to play out some scenarios for the remainder of the season.

CHALK

As I'm comfortable doing, I let numbers be my guide here. Projections, recent averages, injury concerns all factor into this scenario.

Final Standings

(1)	Pink Nightmare	12-1
(2)	Jesus the Moose	11-2
(3)	The Magic Stick	9-4
(4)	Double O Daddy	9-4
(5)	Barclay Street Bruisers	7-6
(7)	Voodoo Brown	7-6
(8)	Sexy Badasses	7-6
(6)	The Champeens	6-7
(9)	THUNDER BEAR	6-7
(10)	Glitterfist Lasersnakes	6-7
(11)	Sic Semper Tyrannis Rex	3-10
(12)	Juris United	3-10
(13)	Charlie Brown Syndrome	3-10
(14)	Kick Azz Giants	1-12

Consolation Bracket

Voodoo Brown takes it all. In a weird quirk, all the Week 16 match ups are the same as the Week 14 contests. This is actually possible.

Championship Playoffs

Stick calls out the stumbling Bruisers and knocks them off. Chad dispatches Mark.

Kendall and Ben crush on their way to the finals, where Ben takes his second straight cup.

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RANDO

Nothing quite like flipping a coin for each game and posting the results.

George Costanza-level hand model.

Final Standings

(1)	Jesus the Moose	10-3
(2)	Pink Nightmare	9-4
(3)	Double O Daddy	9-4
(4)	Barclay Street Bruisers	9-4
(5)	The Magic Stick	8-5
(7)	Voodoo Browns	8-5
(8)	Sexy Badasses	7-6
(6)	The Champeens	6-7
(9)	Glitterfist Lasersnakes	6-7
(10)	THUNDER BEAR	5-8
(11)	Sic Semper Tyrannis Rex	4-9
(12)	Juris United	4-9
(13)	Charlie Brown Syndrome	4-9
(14)	Kick Azz Giants	2-11

Note how brutal the possibilities are here: Joe could be out of the dance with an 8-5 record. Same for Kirk with 7-6. Mark wins Jenna over Nathan with a, you guessed it, coin flip.

Consolation Bracket

Glitterfist Lasersnakes win three coin flips in a row, over THUNDER BEAR, Sexy Badasses, and Voodoo Brown to earn the #1 pick in 2014.

Championship Playoffs

Chad pulls up a random number generator between 1 and 3 and it selects Mark as his competition. But Mark wins. Russ takes down Paul in the other wild card game.

Kendall and Ben crush on their way to the finals, where Kendall takes his FIFTH cup.
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NATHAN'S (BEER) GUT

This is what I think will actually happen. I've gone through each remaining game and projected scores and assembled these results.

Typical Friday at the office.

Final Standings

(1)	Pink Nightmare	12-1	1,423.8
(2)	Jesus the Moose	11-2	1,448.7
(3)	The Magic Stick	9-4	1,322.0
(4)	Barclay Street Bruisers	8-5	1,289.3
(5)	Double O Daddy	8-5	1,282.5
(7)	THUNDER BEAR	7-6	1,282.9
(6)	The Champeens	5-8	1,306.6
(8)	Sexy Badasses	5-8	1,180.2
(9)	Voodoo Brown	6-7	1,192.8
(10)	Glitterfist Lasersnakes	5-8	1,137.6
(11)	Sic Semper Tyrannis Rex	4-9	1,093.2
(12)	Charlie Brown Syndrome	4-9	1,076.1
(13)	Juris United	3-10	1,055.6
(14)	Kick Azz Giants	2-11	1,076.1

Ugh. The playoff teams are the same in all three scenarios. Interesting notes from my exercise:

• I have Voodoo Brown, Juris United, and Glitterfist Lasersnakes all going winless down the stretch. Joe's good luck evaporates. Its not terribly unrealistic either. If he can't knock off BEAR this weekend, he's staring down a Pink/Jesus final two. I think he's a touch too far out of the Jenna sweepstakes, too.
• Ben and Kendall win out to clearly delineate themselves as the best two teams in the league.
• If Chad beats Norris and Derrick the next two weeks (and I think he will), I would need to beat both Joe and Paul to make our Week 14 contest a play-in game. Advantage Chad.
• Mark wins the Jenna over me by about 25 points. That's not a ton of wiggle room in certainly-wrong projections. It could go either way. This week will prove interesting to see if anyone else can get in the mix.

Consolation Bracket

I think THUNDER BEAR will take this one after beating Kirk twice and Joe once. I think I'm the seventh best team in the league, but not by much.

Championship Playoffs

Russ calls out Chad and wins. Mark pulls a slight upset over Paul. Kendall takes down Mark while Ben dominates Russ.

Its close, really close, but the current match ups favor Kendall to win his fifth cup. I didn't want to say it, y'all.

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Week 10 Numbers

All Play Table

• Kendall is in great shape to win this. Only Ben is positioned to make a move. It would take a stumble for the Pink Nightmare at this point.
• Russ is on no-man's land as the clear third best team.
• The mess of Mark/Chad/Paul/Nathan is really interesting. All four of those teams reside in a range of 12.3 total points. Cray cray. One of those won't make the playoffs. With Joe riding a rare wave of good luck, maybe even two won't make it.
• Big gap between Nathan and Patrick: 17 games.
• The Moose is screwing up Kendall's bid for the triple crown, as he leads in total points/average by the scantest of amounts.
• Weird how the Orange division has 30 more all play wins than Blue, but only has outscored them by 50.5 points.

Luck

• Voodoo way up there.
• Rookie, Derrick, and especially Mark are feeling the luck pains. For Mark, its almost enough to see him lose a deserved playoff spot.
• Nine teams with good luck, only five with bad. Screwy.

Hotness

• Ben making all kinds of statements.
• Pack is really tightening up, with the bottom pulling themselves up and everyone but Ben at the top coming down a bit. 
• Can Voodoo combine a hot streak with good luck and bust into the playoffs? It would be a great story, but one that would probably made me pretty upset.
• Paul has to be concerned. Ditto, although less severely, for Nathan.

Jenna

• 9.7 points with three weeks to go. 
• I'm replacing Jenna in my mind with mid-80s Elisabeth Shue (thanks, Chad). Will Mark be able to crane kick his way into her heart? Or will I sweep the leg? Wait, who is Danielson and who is Johnny?

STONE FOX.