Wednesday FAABnalysis -- 11/13/13

Writing this on Wednesday morning, before the bids are processed at noon...

What will be the big bids this week, if any?

Is anyone going to bite hard on Tavon Austin?  32.2 points, but on just two catches (on three targets) and a punt return for a TD.  It screams fluke.  But at the same time, the Rams invested a 1st round draft pick in the kid, he's got legit-level blur speed, and there has to be some amount of positive reinforcement from laying waste to a good Colts team.  I don't know.  I'm kind of buying Austin.  I like the talent.  I don't trust the QB getting him the ball, nor do I trust the offense he's playing in, nor do I trust the coaching staff responsible for this offense.  So we'll see.  I might float a Lincoln at him, knowing that likely won't win the auction.

A great claim for a team that needs
a shot-in-the-dark keeper option, though.

Speaking of winning auctions, dwindling budgets are going to become a factor in the bidding.  If I really wanted Tavon Austin, what's to stop me from bidding $12, knowing that'd beat everyone other than Derrick, Chad, and Russ?  This is yet another layer of strategy that FAAB brings us, and another in a long line of reasons that switching to the FAAB system was ideal for our league.  Waiver order seems clunky and sophomoric in retrospect.

Are there any other big bids this week?

With Mike James shattering his ankle and Muscle Hamster now on IR, who runs the ball for the Bucs?  They're saying Brian Leonard, and we'll see a CKL sucker bite on Leonard today.  But the real juice is on Bobby Rainey.  At least, that's what my hunch is telling me.  And weirdly, the Bucs seem to have found a little late season life... so the Leonard/Rainey claims could yield some reward for the CKL team(s) that land them.  I'll put a buck on each of these dudes, with Rainey ahead of Leonard in the batting order.

Yeeeaaaaaaah dude!  My neck is super fucking long!

Anyone else worthy of a claim?  There are some good DPs out there -- D'Qwell Jackson bubbles to the top of that list for me.  Curtis Lofton should be a starter in our league.  Maybe somebody bids on Vinny Rey's big 25-point outing against the Ratbirds.  (For the record, I officially like Vincent Rey more than Rey Maualuga in the middle of the Bengals D, especially while we're trying to replace the interior pass rush we lost in Geno Atkins.)  Some of the guys in our league [foolishly] like the defensive backs who tally pick-sixes and get their scoring totals up... but that's like starting a boom-or-bust WR over a steadily productive RB in the Flex spot.  Give me the reliable tackle totals, and I'll win the marathon.  But hey, if your offensive roster isn't that great, it's smart to chase those sacks and INTs to boom your way into outscoring your norm in trying to win.  I get it.

Rishard Matthews is also interesting to me this week.  He looked good against the Bengals on TNF two weeks ago, and he single-handedly got the Dolphins back in the game on Monday night.  I know he's technically the #3 for the Fins, but he's their functional #1.  Mark my words.  Putting money where my mouth is, to the tune of $3.

Fuck your C, I ain't no Richard.

Mark Ingram?  Fuck no.  Not again.  Never again.

Chris Ogbonnaya?  They say he'll get more carries.  But one carry is more than ZERO, so it's a meaningless comment.  Still, I like Silent-G.

Jermaine Kearse is a super-deep sleeper that I've liked all season, and seems ready to sort of wake up... just in time for Percy Harvin to come in and steal away any would-be targets.

Only a fool will claim Mike Glennon.  Seriously.  Maybe if this weren't fantasy football and were instead fantasy humans who look like giraffes.  Glennon, #1 pick overall.  Michael Johnson, #2 overall.

Brandon Bostick?  He could be the next Gatesian/Grahamian power forward-turned-tight end, but he's still too raw to matter.  Plus, Scott Tolzien is dealing the pill right now.  Not good.

I suck.

Rob Housler seems ready to join a CKL roster.

And that's about all I've got.  Should be a fairly quiet day of FAAB.  The Tavon Austin and Bucs RB auctions will likely be the headliners.  Here's hoping Russ and Derrick bid big in those two, leaving me with the fattest stack down the stretch.

Soundtrack for today's reading:

Yeah, look.  Yaz has been bubbling up a lot in my Pandora Atomic Bukkake Awesomesauce 80s mix.  This song has been stuck in my head.  So now it's stuck in yours!  You're welcome.

GET-CHA GET-CHA LIPS FAT, CAUSE IT'S TIME TO HAVE STAT!

-- 26 (!) claims
-- 15 cash claims
-- $48 total FAAB money spent
-- $3.20 average per cash grab

On to the claims...

Mark Ingram -- $6 to Chad
Dropped: Daniel Thomas
Other Bids: $0 to Norris
Never in a million years did I think the sucker was going to be Chad.  Comments on this claim?  Ingram should never see the O-Dad's starting lineup, and he's not even an interesting lottery ticket for the bench.  He's just a stiff, working in an offense that doesn't value whatever limited skills he does bring to the table.  Sorry Chad, but this was a shitty claim.
Grade: D-minus (there is still some potential upside here, but precious little)

T.J. Ward -- $6 to Russ
Dropped: Sean Lee
Other Bids: $3 to Joe, $0 to Norris, $0 to Kirk, $0 to Patrick
Meh.  D'Qwell Jackson would have been the better $6 claim.  But that's just like... my opinion, man.  Ward's got healthy tackle numbers and he's a good player, so I'm okay with this.  Tough break on Sean Lee, by the way.  He was doing WORK for you prior to the injury.
Grade: C (I am neither over- nor underwhelmed)

John Carlson -- $5 to Chad
Dropped: Ronnie Hillman
Other Bids: none
The Kyle Rudolph injury replacement has officially been rostered in our league.  THE KYLE RUDOLPH INJURY REPLACEMENT HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN ROSTERED IN OUR LEAGUE.  Maybe I was wrong; maybe 14 teams is too many; many our depth is spread too thin.  I don't know.  I just don't know anymore.
Grade: C-minus (I honestly don't know what to make of it, so it's a C-)

Tavon Austin -- $5 to Kendall
Dropped: Mike Nugent
Other Bids: $4 to Rookie, $3 to Paul, $0 to Norris, $0 to Nathan
Well, I'm happy to land a talented guy whose role should be expanding.  I'm also happy to save my friend Rookie the humiliation of cutting him and then paying money to bring him back.  I came close to making a trade offer to land Austin a couple of weeks ago, and now here we are.  Funny how destiny works sometimes, isn't it?
Grade: C (hey, it's a lottery ticket)

Dumpster Diving...

Brian Leonard, $3 to Mark -- Nice claim, but see above for my thoughts on Leonard vs. Bobby Rainey.  We'll see how it shakes out.

Bobby Rainey, $3 to Paul -- Potentially today's best claim, I figure.

Tracy Porter, $2 to Derrick -- David Wilson: DROPPED!

I suck.

Scott Tolzien, $2 to Alan -- Yikes.  Maybe 14 teams really is too many.

I suck, too.

Rishard "Fuck the C" Matthews, $2 to Kirk -- Well done, my friend.  Very nice claim (see my thoughts, above).

Chris Ogbonnaya, $2 to Joe -- Joe has a stockpile of RB1s from shitty teams!  It's fun!  And strangely effective!

D'Qwell Jackson, $0 to Rookie -- Rare that you can drop a good DP for his bye week and then pick him back up on the other side.  Good work, Rook.

Rashard Mendenhall, $0 to Norris -- I forgot about Mendy in my pre-FAAB analysis.  I have no problem with this claim for Norris.  I think he's only a weekly 4-point play, however.  Better than Scott Tolzien, I guess.

I also suck, plus I have a woman's torso for a face.

Scott Chandler, $0 to Norris -- Ugh.

Yes, you all suck.  But I am #1 in sucking!

Kris Durham, $0 to Patrick -- He has a pulse in that Lions passing game.  I think you could do worse for an end-of-bencher.

Andre Roberts, $0 to Nathan -- Remember when Andre Roberts played a key role in getting Jesus the Moose to the CKL Super Bowl?  Yeah, neither do I.

Tyler Eifert, $0 to Paul -- Eifert's a guy to have in 2014.  But this is 2013.

Dexter McCluster, $0 to Paul -- I love DexMcClux, but he's the new Davone Bess.

Here's what I said last season:

Onto a roster, dumped back to waivers. Again and again and again and again and again. That's the life of Davone Bess when it comes to fantasy football. You get intoxicated by the fact that he gets targets and is sure-handed and catches the ball. Then you see he's not explosive and doesn't score touchdowns. He's 5 points per week, and that's about it. In other words, he's totally underwhelming. Eventually, you need an extra roster spot for the hotshot rookie receiver who might be getting his chance, or for your #1-ranked kicker during his bye, or for the handcuff to your RB2 that you never knew you needed. So you drop Bess, and he moves along to the next team. Davone Bess is the fantasy football whore, but she's such a tease. Nice handjobs, maybe the occasional blowjay, but she never goes all the way. Everyone's gotten their peckers wet with Bess out behind the dumpster, but nobody wants to marry the bitch. Patrick just saw her give up the anal and go brown to the tune of 7-123-0 last week, and Patrick's an ass freak. But just wait -- she'll be kicked back to the curb soon enough, because this slut does not like to fuck.

So McCluster has way more movement skills (did I just say "movement skills?") than Davone Bess, but the outcome is the same.  McClux, as it sadly appears, does not like to fuck.

Best Claims Available on Rebound Friday
-- QB Jason Campbell
-- WR Mario Manningham
-- WR Jermaine Kearse
-- TE Rob Housler
-- TE Brandon Bostick
-- LB Vincent Rey
-- K Adam Vinatieri

Oh man, the talent pool is pretty dried up.

Remaining Budgets
Kick Azz Giants -- $46
The Magic Stick -- $23
Double-O Daddy -- $23
Pink Nightmare -- $21
THUNDER BEAR -- $11
The Champeens -- $5
Sic Semper Tyrannis Rex -- $4
Jesus the Moose -- $3
The Sexy Badasses -- $3
Glitterfist Lasersnakes -- $2
Voodoo Brown -- $0
Barclay Street Bruisers -- $0

Juris United -- $0
Wondrous Blunderbuss -- $0

Derrick, Russ, Chad, Nathan, and I are still bidders.  The rest of you are hopers.  Big difference.

Top-10 Biggest Claims of the Season
1) Nick Foles -- $58 to Ben on 10/16/13
2) Willis McGahee -- $55 to Paul on 9/20/13
3) Joseph Randle -- $51 to Norris on 10/16/13
4) Harry Douglas -- $40 to Kendall on 10/9/13
5) Marvin Jones -- $39 to Kirk on 10/30/13
6) Mike James -- $31 to Norris on 10/23/13
7) Brandon Jacobs -- $27 to Patrick on 10/16/13
8) Jason Campbell -- $25 to Mark on 10/30/13
9) Jake Locker -- $22 to Paul on 10/2/13
10) Chris Ogbonnaya -- $21 to Patrick on 10/16/13
10) Felix Jones -- $21 to Rookie on 9/18/13



That's it for this week's edition, but as always, remember...

GOTTA SPEND TO WIN!