October 30, 2013

Wednesday FAABnalysis -- 10/30/13

You may not know this, but sometimes I do some writing for FAABnalysis before Wednesday FAAB ever happens.  For whatever reason, I tend to have pretty busy Wednesday afternoons here at work.  Today is going to be one of those days, so I'll have to keep the writing short this week.  But here at 9:42 AM, before the claims are processed, I can offer up some predictions on a few different things I think are going to happen today.

#1 Marvin Jones -- He's not a fluke.  Okay, those four touchdowns were a fluke, that's never going to happen again.  (And actually, he's the first receiver in Bengals history to have four TD grabs in one game.)  But I do think the player is legit.  He's officially beaten out Mo Sanu for the #2 job opposite A.J. Green.  I'm good with that, because I love Sanu in the slot -- very reminiscent of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who would slide inside when the Bungles went three-wide with Chris Henry on the outside.  Anyway, we're talking about Marvin Jones here.  He was going to be my redshirt pick if Lattimore, Crabtree, Maclin, or Kenbrell Thompkins didn't slide to me at #11 in the 15th round.  Not trying to be Alan-like over Kevin Curtis, but as a Bengals fan, Jones has been on my radar for a while now.  For the rest of this season, I think he'll settle in at around 60 yards and a coin toss for a touchdown each week.  There are still a lot of mouths to feed in the Bengals passing game (and Andrew Hawkins is due back very soon)!  I'm bidding $14 on Jones, not expecting to win the auction, but fine if I do as I think he's a startable WR3 and also a handcuff to A.J. Green.  I bet the winning bid is somewhere north of $30, since Marvin is really the only truly actionable option this week.

#2 Jay Cutler -- I'm surprised Paul cut him, and even more surprised no one picked him up on Sunday.  I get why Paul did what he did --- he just needs a QB to play during Peyton's bye, and if Cutler's out he can't fill that one-week hole.  And trying to find a trade partner for a damaged-goods fringe QB1/QB2 would have been rough.  But I bet someone picks him up today.  Maybe it'll be me, as I have a $2 bid on him.



#3 Mike Tolbert -- I really don't understand why Kool-Aid man isn't on a CKL roster.  I guess his touchdowns have been inconsistent.  But I saw it with my own eyes this past Thursday night: Tolbert is - in all functionality - the Panthers' RB1.  And they are going more and more toward this physical football identity, so I think Tolbert is a very good guy to own down the stretch this season.

#4 Tiquan Underwood -- Interesting player.  Young, nice upside.  Now the #2 in Tampa after Mike Williams went down, and you know the Bucs are going to have to throw.

#5 Kris Durham -- I don't think Nate Burleson is going to get his job back.

Anyway, we'll see how things go today.  One of the things that I enjoy about Wednesday FAAB is that there is almost always a few claims that I didn't see coming.  I'm sure today will have some out-of-left field stuff going on (maybe a big bid on Case Keenum for someone with a QB on bye?)  Anyway, today should be fun, just like every Wednesday is fun!

Oh, you need a soundtrack for this week!  How about Rebecca Black v2.0?



Good, I hope that was nice and annoying for you.  I also hope it rattles around in your brain all day.  "CHOW MUH-MUH-MUH-MUH-MEIN."

Fuck you, reader.  I hate you.

NOW IT'S TIME FOR SOME STATS!

-- 27 claims
-- 19 cash claims
-- $138 total FAAB money spent
-- $7.26 average per cash grab


On to the claims...


Marvin Jones -- $39 to Kirk
Dropped: Ryan Williams - REDSHIRT BURNED!
Other Bids: $28 to Chad, $22 to Russ, $19 to Ben, $17 to Derrick, $14 to Patrick, $14 to Kendall, $12 to Rookie, $11 to Nathan, $6 to Joe

Yep, that's ten CKL coaches bidding on the guy.  And he absolutely deserves the bids.  Norris is out of money, but I have to wonder where Paul, Mark, and Alan were on this one.  Not buying the breakout performance?  Not wanting to spend what you figured would be the going rate?  Too busy to submit FAAB orders?  I'm really interested in the psychology behind some of the FAABery that goes on.

Like a boss.



Jason Campbell -- $25 to Mark
Dropped: Brent Celek
Other Bids: $5 to Nathan

Stafford's on bye, and I guess Mark liked Campbell better than Keenum for the fill-in role.  I should have noticed Jason Campbell's availability and predicted this claim.  $25 was a lot to pay, but I bet this was a chunk of money that Mark had set aside all along for a QB claim in week 9.  I think Campbell is a very serviceable starting NFL quarterback.  He's probably an upgrade over Brandon Weeden in that Browns offense, and he has some weapons in Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron.  This week, the Browns are at home against the Ravens, who are 14th against opposing QBs.  Not an awesome matchup, but certainly not terrible.  Mark could have done much worse for his bye week replacement.




Nick Foles -- $9 to Nathan
Dropped: Phil Dawson / Wesley Woodyard / Brandon Gibson / Rob Housler / C.J. Anderson - TUESDAY DROPS!
Other Bids: $0 to Joe

Nathan nuked the bottom of the roster, and has five spots to fill.  Foles as the first member of that Nuclear Replacement Quintet is a bit... underwhelming.  I like his whip-crack arm, but the jury is in, and the gavel is coming down hard.  The verdict: Nick Foles sucks.  He's no Shane Falco, let's just say that.  But look, for the CKL coach who just lost Ron Mexico to a hamstring that went *pop*, I get it.  I just don't think Foles is worth a crap in fantasy football.  (Ben agrees.)



Dont'a Hightower -- $9 to Mark
Dropped: Jon Beason
Other Bids: none

When Jerod Mayo went down, I rushed out to claim Brandon Spikes.  But Hightower is the REAL Mayo replacement, and the stats are there to prove it.  A bit pricey, but a very nice claim for our resident IDP Maestro.




James Starks -- $7 to Alan
Dropped: Johnathan Franklin
Other Bids: $0 to Joe, $0 to Nathan

Meh.  So they don't want Eddie Lacy to wear down, and Starks has been playing well.  He's still the RB2 on a team that is hard-wired for a pass-first offense under Aaron Rodgers.  I'm not sure what Starks' 5-7 carries per game is going to get you... other than losses if he's in your lineup.

Welcome to the airport Cinnabon!



Robert Quinn -- $6 to Derrick
Dropped: Kevin Burnett
Other Bids: $5 to Ben, $0 to Nathan

Looks like four of us watched Monday Night Football and saw how totally dominant Quinn was as a pass rusher in that game.  I'm trying to play DP Flex for the relatively safe and reliable tackle totals linebackers can give me, but I have much respect for Derrick - knowing what kind of team he has at this point in the season - chasing these explosive boom-or-bust sack numbers.

Damn, I forgot he was a shitbag Tarhole.  I take it all back.



Case Keenum -- $6 to Nathan
Dropped: Phil Dawson / Wesley Woodyard / Brandon Gibson / Rob Housler / C.J. Anderson - TUESDAY DROPS!
Other Bids: $0 to Joe

I poo-pooed the Foles claim, but I won't shit on Nathan bringing aboard Keenum.  The truth is, NOBODY knows what kind of player Keenum will be.  That Texans offense has supported a top-10 fantasy football quarterback before, and could easily do it again.  Bold prediction: Case Keenum is a top-15 scorer at QB down the stretch, and he makes a rising star out of Nuke Hopkins.  I like this claim, Nathan.




Timothy Wright -- $6 to Ben
Dropped: Zach Miller
Other Bids: $3 to Kendall, $0 to Nathan, $0 to Paul

Propers to Ben for sneaking in here with a solid $6 bid and taking this sleeper tight end away from me.  Look, the Tampa Bay Buttfuckineers really, really suck.  They are going to be behind in games... and they are going to be passing.  I mentioned Underwood above, but the same is true for Wright.  Nice claim, Ben.  And good on ya, because tight end was really the one big hole on your roster.  Between this kid and Heath Miller, I think you have a viable combo at that position.

I miss this dude.



Mike Tolbert -- $6 to Russ
Dropped: Joe Flacco
Other Bids: $5 to Patrick, $4 to Kendall, $1 to Nathan, $0 to Rookie

OH, YEAAHH!



Drew Davis -- $5 to Alan
Dropped: Jerome Simpson
Other Bids: $0 to Nathan

I like him.  I think he's going to be a good player.  I think he has value as long as Roddy White is out.  Is it bad that I don't have any more to say about this one?  Sorry Alan.





Dumpster Diving...

Dexter McCluster, $4 to Nathan -- God damn, I love me some DexMcClux.  This guy is super-fun to watch.  And it looks like - fingers crossed - Andy Reid is figuring out ways to use his unique skillset.  Intrigue!  Mystery!

E.J. Manuel, $3 to Kendall -- So, so, so, so pleased with being the one to grab and stash this Virginia Beach stud.  My bench just feels happier with him on it.  But I wonder if I can navigate my late bye weeks with him on the roster.  Ugh.  Manuel on my team might mean Goskowski gets dropped during his bye.  Butterfly effect or some such shit.

Dallas Clark, $2 to Kirk -- Of course, you're the one to pick him up.  OF COURSE YOU ARE.

Sexy?  Badass?

Daryl Richardson, $2 to Nathan -- Man, I really don't know what to make of this one.  Post-hype sleeper?  Hedge against the Zac Stacy ankle sprain?  Honestly, I think it's a strange claim.

Lance Moore, $1 to Nathan -- Like it.  Especially for the Kenny Stills owner.  Chances are, the most productive Saints wide receiver is on Nathan's roster.  Chances are just as good that Nathan will go crazy trying to decide who to think about starting each week.

Jermaine Gresham, $1 to Paul -- He can play, Paulie.  You already know this, but he can play.  Problem is... so many mouths to feed.

D'Qwell Jackson, $0 to Rookie -- Just about the best $0 IDP claim you'll see.  (I had him queued up as my top Lofton replacement, and your shitty record led you to win the auction.  I should have bid $1.  Fuck you, Rookie.)

Jay Cutler, $0 to Joe -- Perfect.  Just perfect.  I'm really happy that this happened.

Tiquan Underwood, $0 to Kendall -- If he makes it past Rebound Friday, it's a one-week tryout for the Pink Nightamare.  Lots of players get this chance, Tiquan.  Let's see what you and that wonderful boxcut of yours can do this weekend.



BONUS SECTION!  Nathan's batting order for the Nuclear Replacement Quintet:
1) Marvin Jones
2) Nick Foles
3) Case Keenum
4) Jason Campbell
5) Dexter McCluster
6) Daryl Richardson
7) Mike Tolbert
8) Lance Moore
9) D'Qwell Jackson
10) Deji Karim
11) Drew Davis
12) James Starks
13) Timothy Wright
14) Tiquan Underwood
15) Philip Wheeler
16) Robert Quinn
17) Chandler Jones
18) Thomas Davis
19) Ryan Succop
20) Blair Walsh




Best Claims Available on Rebound Friday
-- QB Joe Flacco
-- WR Kris Durham
-- WR Robert Woods
-- WR Airwolf




Remaining Budgets
The Magic Stick -- $53
Kick Azz Giants -- $52
Double-O Daddy -- $45
Pink Nightmare -- $26
Glitterfist Lasersnakes -- $20
The Champeens -- $14
THUNDER BEAR -- $12
Sic Semper Tyrannis Rex -- $12
Jesus the Moose -- $9
Voodoo Brown -- $7
The Sexy Badasses -- $5
Barclay Street Bruisers -- $3
Juris United -- $2
Blackpool Penguins -- $0

Can I just say that I'm proud of where these totals are, currently?  Big bids this season, and I think we as a league have our FAAB legs under us now.




Top-10 Biggest Claims of the Season
1) Nick Foles -- $58 to Ben on 10/16/13
2) Willis McGahee -- $55 to Paul on 9/20/13
3) Joseph Randle -- $51 to Norris on 10/16/13
4) Harry Douglas -- $40 to Kendall on 10/9/13
5) Marvin Jones -- $39 to Kirk on 10/30/13
6) Mike James -- $31 to Norris on 10/23/13
7) Brandon Jacobs -- $27 to Patrick on 10/16/13
8) Jason Campbell -- $25 to Mark on 10/30/13
9) Jake Locker -- $22 to Paul on 10/2/13
10) Chris Ogbonnaya -- $21 to Patrick on 10/16/13
10) Felix Jones -- $21 to Rookie on 9/18/13



That's it for this week's edition, but as always, remember...



GOTTA SPEND TO WIN!

1 comment:

  1. So so good, K. Consistent excellence is so hard to come by. My wife would disagree, but thorough is my middle name.

    ReplyDelete